Stock Market Interpretation: Risk Prevention Is Steady Growth.

In a sense, risk prevention is steady growth.

At present, economic risks are generally controllable, but we still need to be highly vigilant against all kinds of risks which are characterized by high leverage and bubble.

To achieve the goal of economic development this year, we must grasp the balance between steady growth and risk control, and firmly guard against the bottom line of systematic and regional risks.

As a result, the stock market fell sharply in June, which confirms the reminder of the authorities.

So, according to this logic, this year is still to prevent the regional or systemic occurrence of financial risks.

In the era of financial integration, the risk of stock market is definitely systemic risk. Therefore, the high level market should not tolerate cliff breaking.

The stock market should be "bottomed out" this year.

Is there a big chance of big blue chips in 2016? From a valuation point of view, its bubble level is relatively low.

However, according to the authority's suggestion, monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, and no water should be released at random. All regions and departments should not "irrigate irrigated and irrigate blindly, expand new urban areas blindly".

This means that 16 years of investment growth will continue to decline. The recovery of the cyclical industry is far from being expected. Deleveraging, capacity production and disposal of dead businesses will make it difficult for banks to expand their credit scale and the scale of bad loans will become dominant.

This means that the big blue chip does not have the support of the wave of achievement, but it has the pressure of downward performance.

In the 13 years, the central government recognized the economic situation as "three phases superposition", clarified the "how to see" economy, put forward the "new normal" in 14 years, actually defined the "how to do it", and put forward the "supply side structural reform" at the end of 15 years, which is to clarify the main direction of attack. Based on this, it is a word "dry" in 16 years.

In May last year, the authorities also warned everyone not to be lucky to think that an economy would rise naturally.

This time he said more clearly that the trend of the L economy is inevitable. The pain of reform is inevitable, and the window period of reform will not remain open.

Like 98 years of Zhu Rongji's demand for the textile industry's ingot, we must deal with the dead businesses firmly.

Compared with the years of the central economic work conference, it will be found that the core tasks proposed in the past are often large and complete, and lack of operability.

The five major tasks of this time are deleveraging.

It is very specific and detailed to go to inventory, reduce costs and make up the shortage, and last year's five questions and five answers came down in one continuous line, and at that time he proposed to "pay attention to precision drip irrigation" in May.

Therefore, the reform thinking of authoritative people should also focus on "precision". For example, the task of the central economic work conference over the past year has almost always mentioned "structural adjustment". In May, although he also promoted the structure, he also pointed out that "structural adjustment is a more essential feature of the new normal".

This is the reason why the "structural reform of supply side" is focused on this time, because only the structural adjustment is relatively general, and there is not much difference from the previous formulation. Government departments at all levels will not attach great importance to it.

In fact, in the May article, there was only one reference to the word "supply": the purchasing power of Chinese consumers is considerable. A golden week can refresh people's sales records abroad. The key is that we need to have an effective and effective supply of products that are reassuring.

It can be seen that he started with the shallow supply at the beginning (which is also the intuition of many people that the quality of domestic products is not in place, not the lack of demand, but the supply is not enough, such as buying rice cookers and toilet seats in Japan), and proposes the supply side reform aimed at improving total factor productivity.

So, yes.

What are the corresponding opportunities? Last year, the opportunities for the stock market came mainly from the central bank's reduction of interest rates, and the lack of physical opportunities led to a large influx of capital into the stock market and leverage, so it belonged to Buffalo.

Nowadays, the authority puts forward that the reform should be done by adding, subtraction, multiplication and division, so the opportunity is mainly focused on two aspects, namely, addition and subtraction.

It is an addition to places such as high real estate stocks or investment opportunities, and this year's largest incremental investment in fixed assets investment is also an addition, such as government investment in larger pport facilities, private investment keen IT, media, medical pension and other high growth industries.

In terms of reduction, the main opportunity is to go to production capacity, and the authority advocates the use of M & A to deal with the dead businesses. This means that the opportunities for SOE reform and M & A are still large.