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    The Fed Raised Interest Rates In March, And There Was Another Time Bomb In The Currency Market.

    2016/1/9 14:52:00 20

    FedRate HikeExchange Rate

    Strong employment growth in the last three months of 2015 should allow the fed to feel reassured by further interest rates this year and perhaps raise interest rates as early as March this year.

    The labor department said the number of non farm workers increased by 292 thousand in December last year and increased by an average of 284 thousand people in the last three months.

    This data is higher than the average growth rate of 260 thousand people in 2014.

    The unemployment rate was flat at 5% last December.

    Salary growth is relatively moderate, but shows signs of a slight increase.

    The average hourly wage increase in December last year increased by 2.5% compared with the same period last year, while the increase was almost 2% over most of the period of economic expansion.

    Employment growth shows that the US economy not only resists the adverse effects of slowing growth abroad, but also gets rid of the strong negative impact of the US dollar on manufacturing and exports.

    Federal Reserve officials may not overreact to the latest employment figures, as the monthly employment growth figures have changed considerably and frequent seasonal anomalies have occurred in recent years.

    In November 2014 and December, the number of employment increased by 423 thousand and 329 thousand respectively, but in early 2015, the growth rate dropped sharply.

    Federal Reserve officials will hold interest rate meetings on 26-27 January.

    Futures markets believe that the Federal Reserve has a lower probability of raising interest rates again at this meeting.

    Although the job market has continued to grow, inflation has been lower than the 2% target set by the fed in the past three and a half years. Some officials want to see clear signs of inflation before further raising interest rates.

    The turmoil in overseas markets and stock markets in January may leave Fed officials reluctant to raise interest rates at the next meeting.

    But they are still expected to raise interest rates at the March meeting.

    This will enable the fed to raise interest rates four times this year, which was also written by officials in this year's official interest rate outlook.

    However, the futures market still believes that interest rates will only rise two times this year.

    The US labor market ended in 2015 with impressive employment growth last December. This is the latest sign that the US economy remains stable under adverse international circumstances.

    The Labor Department announced on Friday that the number of non farm payrolls increased by 292 thousand in December after seasonally adjusted factors.

    Another report shows that the unemployment rate in December was stable at 5%.

    The unemployment rate has not been below 5% since 2007.

    Economists had predicted that the number of non farm payrolls increased by 210 thousand in December, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%.

    In addition, the revised figures show that the number of new jobs increased by 50 thousand in October and November.

    The number of new jobs in November was 252 thousand, 211 thousand before the amendment.

    In October, the number of new jobs was revised to 307 thousand, with an initial value of 298 thousand.

    The fourth quarter was the largest number of new jobs in 2015.

    In 2015, the average number of new jobs increased by 221 thousand per month, lower than the average level of 260 thousand in 2014, but it is still the second year since 1999.

    However, the salary level was basically flat in December.

    The average hourly wage of private sector employees fell 1 cents to $25.24 this month.

    However, compared with the same period of the previous year, the average time salary still rose by 2.5%, which was in line with the best year on year increase in 2015.

    The salary increase in 2015 is higher than any year in the past five years, but it is still at a medium historical level.

    The workforce expanded in December.

    In December, the labour force participation rate rose from 62.5% in November to 62.6%, but still close to 40 years low.

    The expansion of the workforce may mean that the decline in the unemployment rate in 2015 has prompted some wait-and-see Americans to start looking for jobs.

    Lake, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Jeffrey Lacker) said on Friday that the US economy is growing, but inflation is still likely to affect the Fed.

    Increase interest

    Hidden worries of step.

    In a speech prepared for the Maryland Banking Association conference in Baltimore, Lake said that the speed of raising interest rates depends critically on the changes in the economic outlook and future data.

    His statement was almost the same as that of Thursday morning's speech.

    The prepared speech did not mention strong employment figures on Friday.

    Lake said that despite the economic recovery, the problem of inflation remains unsolved.

    He also said that changes in inflation will determine interest rates.

    This means that the pace of raising interest rates may be faster or slower than Fed officials' current expectations.

    Officials recently predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 1 percentage points by the end of 2016.

    He said that if oil prices hit bottom and the dollar peaked, inflation would not rise to 2% soon, and slower rate hikes would be ideal.

    If inflation rises rapidly to 2%, a faster rate increase will be more appropriate.

    He said he still believed that unless there was a subsequent impact, inflation would rebound to the 2% target set by the Federal Open Market Committee in the short term.

    Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (John Williams) said on Friday that the Fed could slowly raise interest rates over the next few years, a gesture that shows his optimistic outlook for the economy.

    Williams said.

    Economics

    Significant progress has been made and is about to achieve overall health.

    Williams said that the federal funds rate may take nearly three years to reach a stable level, and the federal funds rate target may be stable in the 3%-3.5% range.

    Williams made the comments in a speech prepared for a campaign of St. Barbara in California.

    Earlier, the labor department released strong employment figures for December last year.

    The data show that in December last year

    Number of Employed Persons

    The unemployment rate of 292 thousand people was 5%.

    However, the report does not show upward pressure on wage growth, which the Fed hopes to see.

    Williams's speech was prepared before the release of employment data.

    Williams said that the adverse factors facing the US economy, such as weak overseas growth and its impact on the US dollar, as well as the slow recovery of the construction industry, still require the Federal Reserve to give sustained support to the economy through policies. The Fed can slowly weaken the stimulus to the economy caused by ultra-low interest rates.

    In his speech, Williams expressed optimism about employment and growth.

    He said the US economy is close to full employment and has good growth momentum.

    Williams said that the current unemployment rate of 5% may be close to the long-term potential level of the economy.

    He expects the unemployment rate to drop to 4.5% in mid 2016.

    But Williams admits that inflation is still in the doldrums, and inflation has failed to reach the 2% target set by the fed in more than three years.

    He blamed the inflation downturn as a temporary factor and said that with the weakening of US dollar and oil prices and the further strengthening of the US economy, inflation should rise.

    He expects inflation to reach or reach 2% by the end of next year.


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