Forecast Of PX Price Trend In 2016

In 2016, the Asian PX market is expected to continue to oversupply, but there will be no room to raise prices by reducing profits or increasing profits, unless large-scale.

Or the PX factory has a serious reservoir expansion.

Moreover, in 2016, China's PX import dependency remained high, and suppliers' ability to maintain price differentials remained strong. It is estimated that the average level of naphtha price difference in 2016 will still be maintained at around us $350 / ton in 2016.

The overall price of PX still depends on the operation of the crude oil terminal. After a year and a half, the price of crude oil has dropped to the lowest level in the past six years, and the price of the crude oil will continue to be limited. If the crude oil runs in the US $40-60 / barrel interval in 2016, it is estimated that the overall price range of PX will be between us $700 / ton -900 US dollars / ton. Of course, the actual trend depends on the changes in the upstream related costs such as crude oil.

Two, PTA operation analysis 1, PTA supply and demand situation

2015 domestic

The new capacity is mainly concentrated in the first quarter of the release of 2 million 200 thousand tons of constant force and Zhuhai BP125 million tons, originally planned to start in the first quarter of Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons of equipment and the four quarter of the Han Bang two phase 2 million 200 thousand tons.

Postponed production, market rumors, Hon BANG 2 million 200 thousand tons plant will be put into operation in the first quarter of next year.

In 2015, the domestic PTA production capacity increased by 3 million 750 thousand tons, and the growth rate was 8.6%. At the end of the year, the total capacity of domestic PTA reached 46 million 930 thousand tons, which was obviously overabundant compared with the downstream 46 million 480 thousand polyester production capacity. However, due to the bankruptcy of the Far East Petrochemical Company and the reorganization of the Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company, the about 9000000 tons of capacity were idle for a long time, which reduced the pressure of PTA excess supply.

According to the preliminary and current production forecast, the average annual growth rate of new domestic production capacity will slow down after 2016. Some of the proposed or built installations will be delayed due to the pressure of overcapacity at present, or have not been approved yet. There will be considerable uncertainties in the installation of the products put into operation after 2017 and after the project has been put into operation.

Judging from the current production expectations, only 1 million 200 thousand tons of production capacity of Urumqi Petrochemical Company will be put into operation in 2016 at the end of the year. If Sichuan Shengda 1 million and Hon BANG 2 million 200 thousand ton plant are postponed to 2016, the domestic PTA production capacity will expand by 4 million 400 thousand tons next year, increasing by 9.37%. By the end of 2016, the total capacity of domestic PTA will reach 51 million 330 thousand tons. It is estimated that the domestic polyester production capacity will expand about 3 million tons in 2016. By the end of 2016, the production capacity of polyester will reach about 49 million 500 thousand tons, and the total capacity of PTA will still exceed the polyester production capacity, and the pressure of overcapacity will be more serious.