2016 All Kinds Of Expected Analysis Of National Cotton Storage

The market is not calm at the end of the year.

This kind of tranquil comes mainly from various expectations of the market for the national cotton storage.

When to go out and how the price will affect the stock market?

Last night, a few friends in the industry gathered together to talk about the state store cotton store, a friend said that the national cotton storage market will be "blood spattered five steps".

"The outgoing time may be earlier than that of the industry."

The friend said that the national economic work conference held in the past few years has clearly identified five major tasks in 2016: inventory, capacity, leverage, cost reduction and compensation.

Today, the national storage cotton inventory of more than 1100 tons, the first to take inventory, and downstream cotton enterprises also think that the national cotton store out of storage in time is not too early, the sooner the boots landing, the more conducive to textile enterprises in the overall layout of raw materials.

According to the state

Market monitoring system data show that in 2015 the national cotton production 5 million 216 thousand tons, as of January 29th, the cumulative sales of lint 2 million 393 thousand tons, that is to say, 2015/16 cotton business inventories at least 2 million 823 thousand tons (production minus sales), the market is not short of cotton.

Beginning in mid January, the cotton quota notice has been sent to enterprises. If the national cotton store is sold out, the market will be competing for victory.

The other is the price problem that the market is generally concerned about.

The current market discussion of the national cotton prices mainly revolves around the following two situations: first, some enterprises believe that the price will be very low, which is mainly from the viewpoint of cotton enterprises and with wishful thinking. Two, there are some market participants who believe that the average price of the national Cotlook will be adjusted to the Cotlook A index, no matter how much the first bid price is, according to the average price of the A index and the domestic spot price.

In fact, this price determination system is too idealistic.

The so-called market average price and the Cotlook A index and the domestic spot average price are all affected by the fluctuation of the external cotton prices. There are too many uncertain factors and the operation is rather cumbersome.

Finally, the quality of national cotton reserves.

In 2015, "good cotton supply is in short supply and bad cotton flooding into worries" has become a consensus in the market. After the Spring Festival, textile mills are expected to have strong demand for high-quality cotton, while the "mainland goods" are not so urgent.

A market person once said, 2016

The key indicators for cotton selection are length, horse value, "three silk" and strength.

In the 2015 year when new cotton is difficult to meet the needs of enterprises, national cotton reserves will become a useful supplement to the market.

Generally speaking, the time of storage of national cotton stores may be earlier, and the price may be lower. This is more advantageous than the disadvantages for textile enterprises, but for the cotton enterprises and cotton traders still in stock, they are "fighting to the flesh, knife and knife to see the blood".

However, lower cotton prices will be conducive to the integration of domestic and foreign cotton prices, which is conducive to the relief of financial funds, and is beneficial to the long-term development of cotton industry. Perhaps this is the throes of reform.