We Must Observe The RMB Exchange Rate, Economic Situation And Monetary Policy.

During the Chinese Lunar New Year, the risk appetite of investors seems to be dropping sharply in overseas markets.

However, after the opening of A shares, after a low opening, the road continued to rebound strongly yesterday.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.29%, and the gem rose 4.02%.

For the market rebound and the future trend, how do private institutions view the five major private placement agencies?

Overall, it is optimistic about the short-term trend, especially before the two sessions. If we look at it a bit longer, we should observe the RMB exchange rate, the economic situation and monetary policy.

Wu Xianfeng, chairman of Shenzhen Longteng Asset Management Co, can be optimistic in the short term.

The strength of feeling empty has been obviously insufficient, and the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation has also been greatly alleviated.

The credit data in January were significantly higher than expected, and liquidity remained loose, exceeding the expectation of market liquidity recovery after the year.

Therefore, in general, January is a risk aversion. In February, the opportunity is greater than risk, and the probability of increase is obviously increased.

Short words, there can be two weeks of rebound, follow-up market will continue to rebound, but also to observe.

Wei Mingliang, partner of Shenzhen hope asset company, has a chance to rebound.

It still belongs to the overfall rebound, the rebound space will not be particularly big, the market will maintain the shock mode, but in the short term the market still has the opportunity, the high quality growth stock, especially one season good anticipation good stock's opportunity is quite many, moreover the oversold stock is also worth paying attention to.

During the Spring Festival, stocks in major overseas markets did not fall very much, and A shares had fallen sharply before the holiday, which fell more than overseas markets.

The turmoil in overseas markets is more of an impact on market sentiment. In the wake of the rally in the RMB exchange rate, the speech of Premier Li Keqiang and governor of central bank Zhou Xiaochuan, and the growth of credit data in January, the market confidence has been greatly enhanced.

Shenzhen Black Swan asset investment director Chen Lifeng: the market will still be a shock pattern.

In the short term, the market will rebound if it falls too much.

There is a rebound in demand, but not necessarily the reversal of the market.

Now the market is not big, but the bottom needs grinding.

The temporary stabilization of the RMB exchange rate is beneficial to the market, but the trend of the future exchange rate still needs to be paid attention to. Besides, the amount of the market is not large enough, and we need to wait for the favorable environment of the market and the pick-up of risk preference.

So overall, the market will still be a shock pattern.

The credit exceeded expectations show that China's demand side is still relatively strong, but relying solely on single credit super expectations can not confirm whether the bottom of the economy is bottoming out.

Solving the structural problem of matching demand and supply is a key factor. We should still pay more attention to the effect of the supply side reform. By creating new supply to promote new demand, it is an important step in the pformation of China's economy.

In 2016, judging the bottom of the economy is based on the marginal changes in the micro variables of the specific industry based on economic reforms, such as the volume, price and inventory data of the upstream industry and the growth of real estate investment.

Yesterday, driven by the Nikkei index, the Hang Seng Index and the European stock market rebounded sharply, making the risk preference of the peripheral market recovered in the short term. The favorable factors that superimposed credit data exceed expectations, and have been taken into the A share market today, which is an important catalyst for the rebound of A shares.

We believe that short-term market still needs time to restore risk preference so as to gradually attract incremental funds.

In the three major factors of the RMB exchange rate, the external market and the reform effect, what can be confirmed now is that the RMB exchange rate will tend to be relatively stable in the medium and short term, while the other two factors need to be observed continuously.

Therefore, in the current view, we prefer to use time to replace the horizontal bar to consolidate risk preference.

Yesterday, the A share rally was mainly a peripheral factor, which is a synchronous representation of the whole world.

As the A share performance has been very weak before, peripheral rise and fall after the rebound is a normal reaction.

Recently, some economic data, such as poor import and export data, and foreign economic data are not satisfactory. The economy has yet to see signs of bottoming out.

The credit data in January are expected to have seasonal factors. At the beginning of each year, the amount of loans increased by the bank (at the end of last year) the growth of residential mortgage loans led by the real estate policy. In addition, due to the expected background of the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the renminbi, it is doubtful whether the company adjusts its debt structure (RMB foreign currency loans into Renminbi loans).

In February, when the expected depreciation of the RMB exchange rate was postponed and the policies promulgated before and after the two sessions were good, the possibility of a rebound was relatively large, but the space was not expected to be large enough to be compared with the mid-level rebound in the fourth quarter of last year.

Because the periphery is also a rebound during the bear market.

Its core factors, such as the years of quantitative easing, the accumulated problems of banks over the years can not be improved in the short term.

Although the short-term rebound is not big, it is unclear in the medium and long term.

At present, we still maintain a lower position.

Years ago, the higher position was added to the position, which can be said to have fulfilled previous expectations. However, it was considered that the sustainability was not strong enough.

February rebounded or sustainable, rebounded to the previous platform about 3000 points, while March uncertainty is mainly the capital side.

Credit data exceeded expectations, which was normal in the first half of January.

However, some information can be read out. The long-term loans of residents and non-financial enterprises are more optimistic. It shows that the problem of local leveraging is feasible based on the very healthy balance sheets of Chinese residents, and the real estate market is sustainable.

The start of medium and long term loans of non-financial enterprises shows that the problem of local government's inaction has been solved since the corruption that has plagued the market for a year. Yesterday, eight ministries and commissions issued a document to promote financial support for industrial development, which also shows that the government is also backing the economy. These can be seen as optimistic factors.