The Chinese Mother Who Has Unlocked Her Will Lose Her Courage Again.

During the 7 days of the Spring Festival, the price of gold rose from 1153 dollars on New Year's Eve to 1263.9 dollars in the fourth day of the Spring Festival.

While investors were busy deciding whether gold could bid farewell to the bear market, global gold prices fell sharply on Monday and two, and fell below the US $1200 mark in February 16th to around $1191.

Some analysts said that the Fed's policymakers expressed concern over the tightening of global financial conditions last month, which would damage the US economy and consider changing the original path of the federal funds rate in 2016.

The Fed's partial doves' meeting minutes again helped boost gold.

If the pace of US dollar interest rate hike is slower than expected this year, such as adding only one time or not at all, or even implementing negative interest rates, there will still be a big room for gold prices to rise.

After several rounds of financial turmoil, the market has gradually seen that the recovery of the United States is not enough. Therefore, it is unlikely that the US will continue to tighten the US dollar in the year. The overall environment is good and gold will increase.

Such a drastic rise and fall makes the monkey market of the golden market that has just entered the year of monkey appear.

And for more than 3 years

The decline of Chinese mothers said that the price shock at the beginning of the year of the monkey didn't bring too much substantial gains or losses, but it certainly shook their confidence that they just sprang up. At last week's high point of US $1263, the centralized paction price of the original bottom line army seemed to be only a few steps away from the centralized paction price of 1300 dollars. However, the unilateral rise in dream suddenly turned into a "monkey jump", which is indeed somewhat different from the expected value.

What makes gold repeat in such a short time? The core keywords of all sides are: risk aversion.

The global panic index VIX surged 14%, indicating that the global market will also fluctuate significantly in the future.

In the days when gold prices soared, the global capital market was plunged into a red sea.

In January 29th, the Bank of Japan suddenly announced the implementation of negative interest rates, and its unexpected move triggered huge fluctuations in the global market.

On the stock market, Japan, France and South Korea's stock index continued to fall by more than 11%, 4.9% and 4.3% respectively.

The ROK gem index triggered a 8% fusing mechanism; the Hang Seng index broke three years low; the US stock index dropped nearly 3%; in emerging markets, India and Russia's stock index dropped more than 6%.

Zhang Wei, a precious metal analyst at Zhuo Chuang, told reporters that the collapse of the stock market once again frightened funds into the safe haven assets, and gold prices and bonds rose. As the yields of multinational bonds fell to negative values, the global investors' appetite for gold increased, and gold prices rose wildly.

However, this stock market crash and the high risk assets have been reversed on Monday.

This day, after the opening of the A share market, the Shanghai Stock Index edged up other Asian stock markets after a slight fall, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 7.19% in a day. The Hang Seng Index of Hongkong also went higher and closed at 18918 points.

Last Friday, the European and American stock markets staged a drama of relay rally. The European Storck 600 index rose 2.9% on Friday, and many indexes such as Britain, France, Germany and the United States rose on that day.

With the global stock market rising, market risk aversion was rapidly diluted, and gold immediately lost its former glory.

In February 15th, the US Comex gold futures price closed at $1209.40 / ounce, down 30 US dollars, or 2.42%.

The dollar's monetary policy has always been one of the most important factors in boosting gold.

In December last year, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates, and gold prices fell by $more than 20 that day, when many agencies predicted that the future of gold would be very bad.

However, raising interest rates is not as smooth as people think.

On the evening of February 10th in Beijing, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen issued a semi annual monetary policy testimony after attending the house finance committee of the United States Congress.

Yellen warned.

Facing the double risks of tight domestic financial situation and international economic turbulence.

In this testimony, Yellen has continued the Fed's usual Tai Chi style, avoiding the possibility of raising interest rates in March. But at the same time, she said that if the economic development is very disappointing, the Fed may slow down the rate of interest rise.

Is the economic development disappointing? According to the latest data released earlier this month, the number of new jobs in the United States in January was less than expected, but the unemployment rate dropped to below 5% and the wage level also rose.

For this result, there are great differences between the parties.

But compared with last December's data, the market generally thought it was bad.

Zhang Wei believes that after several rounds of financial turmoil, the market has gradually seen that the recovery of the United States is not enough. Therefore, it is unlikely that the US will continue to tighten the US dollar in the year. The overall environment is good and gold will increase.

According to Morgan's analysis of data from the beginning of 1975, when interest rates are low and declining, gold performs better than stocks, bonds and many commodities.

According to JP Morgan's report, the average monthly return of gold is 1.4% while the real average interest rate is 0.4%.

Wang Zejun, an analyst at Huarong securities, analyzed that if the US dollar rate hike was slower than expected this year, such as adding only one time or even at the same time, and even implementing negative interest rates, gold prices would still have room for improvement.