PTA Will Enter The Demand Season.

In mid April, OPEC oil producing countries and non OPEC oil producing countries held a meeting to discuss the frozen production agreement. The recovery of crude oil prices in the later period depended on the cooperation of all parties.

The two quarter is the Asian PX plant entered the maintenance season, PX supply may be again tense, which will support the formation of PX prices.

In the first quarter, PTA started to maintain a relatively high level of operation. PTA was in a tired inventory stage, while the PTA processing cost was reduced to 500 yuan / ton. In mid March, 2 million 200 thousand tons of new HP petrochemical plant was put into operation.

Supply pressure is increasing.

The current PTA processing fee is too low, or prompted some PTA factories to stop.

The current polyester load in the lower reaches to about 80%, and the two quarter is the peak season for PTA demand. If PTA load falls, PTA will go to the inventory stage, and will also drive the rebound of PTA prices.

It is estimated that the two quarter TA1609 and the contract interval will be 4500-5500 yuan / ton, suggesting that the 09 contract will fall to 4500 yuan / ton.

In the first quarter of 2016, international crude oil was first suppressed and then lifted. In January, international crude oil fell sharply, breaking below 30 US dollars / barrel, and falling to the lowest level in 2004.

At the closed door meeting in Doha in mid February, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar agreed to freeze oil production at the level of January and call on other oil producing countries to abide by the agreement.

Crude oil production in Saudi Arabia and Russia reached a new high in recent years in January. In January, the international community ended sanctions against Iran. At present, Iran actively resumed crude oil production and exports.

The risk of non-compliance is greater.

In April 17th, the 12 oil exporting countries (OPEC) and the non OPEC oil producing countries will gather in Doha, Qatar, to discuss the freeze production agreement again.

Although the supply of crude oil is still oversupply, the "frozen production" action of the major oil producing countries has brought support to the international crude oil market, and international crude oil has returned to $40 / barrel in mid March.

US crude oil in the first quarter

As of March 14th, the US crude oil inventories reached 532 million 540 thousand barrels a day, and crude oil inventories reached the highest level in the same period of history. The total gasoline stocks in the United States were 245 million 70 thousand barrels, and gasoline inventories were much higher than the five average limit of the same period. However, gasoline stocks began to fall. With the advent of the summer rush hour, the utilization rate of us refinery capacity will rise and the US crude oil inventory will drop.

OPEC oil producing countries and non OPEC oil producing countries held a meeting in mid 4 to discuss the frozen production agreement. The recovery of crude oil prices in the late period depended on the implementation of the frozen production agreement. The lifting of the core of crude oil will drive up the price of PTA.

In the first quarter of 2016, PTA futures were at a low level. In January, international crude oil fell below 30 US dollars / barrel, while the lowest PTA futures in the middle fell to 4200 yuan / ton, the lowest in 2004.

In February, the PTA plant stopped more, but the international crude oil was searched for two times. Meanwhile, the downstream polyester was overhauled during the Spring Festival, and PTA maintained its low position.

In March, the international crude oil exploration bottom picked up and stood at 40 US dollars / barrel. The PX overhaul expected to drive PX prices strong, and PTA cost side support. The black plate outbreak led to a sharp rebound in commodities, and PTA was also boosted.

In the first quarter, PTA rose significantly behind other chemical products, which was mainly due to its weak fundamentals. The PTA supply exceeding demand pattern had not been changed. In March, 2 million 200 thousand tons of new equipment had been put into operation, and PTA supply side had a long way to go.