RMB Honeymoon Period Is Expected To Continue In May

Since the beginning of this year, many investors can not understand the fluctuation of foreign exchange market.

The Central Bank of Europe and Japan continue to introduce a loose stimulus policy. The focus of global public opinion tends to worry about launching a currency war based on "competitive devaluation", but the euro and yen have not risen.

The US Federal Reserve launched a ten year increase in interest rates at the end of last year, but the dollar has gone downhill this year.

It is easy to see that most developed economies, such as the US, Europe and Japan, have obvious "depreciation preferences" - they try to stimulate economic growth by improving trade terms through their own exchange rate downwards.

Against this background, why is China alone worried about depreciation?

The answer is simple, worry.

。

Guotai Junan bond analyst Xu Hanfei and research assistant Yin Ruizhe pointed out in yesterday's report:

Make the issue clearer.

Theoretically speaking, depreciation has advantages and disadvantages to a country's economy.

The advantage lies in improving the trade conditions of a country and promoting export expansion. The drawback lies in promoting imported inflation pressure, increasing external debt burden and causing capital outflow.

A significant difference between China and the developed economies is that the latter has entered the stage of high capital inflow and outflow, and the net flow is fluctuating around the zero fluctuation stage (the residents sector has formed the expectation of capital outflow and will flow back); and we are in the turning point of "net investment", and the capital has just started to trend towards the overseas allocation process (the resident department is easy to understand the capital outflow as a permanent flight).

At the policy level, "two evils are lighter", based on the motive of "steady growth".

It may be phased in the appreciation of "steady capital flows".

However, the report pointed out that "steady growth" and "stable capital flow" are not completely opposed: under the "cover" of the weak dollar, "fish and bear paws" can be concurrently.

According to data released early last month, thanks to the weakening of the US dollar and the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, March

The increase was last October.

In addition, China's GDP growth in the first quarter last month was 6.7%, reaching market expectations.

And from a series of macroeconomic data such as industrial growth, investment growth, PPI, PMI, import and export, the signs of economic rebound are obvious.

Analysts said the economy is stabilizing in the near term, and the two quarter is expected to continue to warm up and drive the two quarter risk appetite to continue to pick up.

In this regard, Xu Hanfei pointed out in the report that since March, under the background of weakening US dollar, we have realized the unification of "steady growth" and "steady capital flow".

The US dollar index has been in a downward trend this year, falling more than 3% in the past 10 days.

The report commented that on the policy side (the main central bank interest Conference) and the fundamentals (lower than expected US economic data) driven by the dollar, in the last week of April chose a "downward breakthrough", in the short term, do not rule out the possibility of dropping to 90.

Since the weakness of the US dollar is still continuing or even strengthened, the rebound of commodities can not be falsified in the short term. The current "steady state" of RMB may continue in May.