The Economy Is The L Trend, And We Should Reduce The Expected Return On Investment.

Whether China's economic operation is U or L, it is difficult to change the pattern of market turbulence. The biggest difference between the two is the difference in the structure of shocks. The L economy is more conducive to the market performance of small and medium-sized theme stocks, such as subject shares, growth stocks, mergers and acquisitions, etc.

Under weak shocks, public offerings are more likely to capture structural and event driven investment opportunities in the market.

Yesterday, by the multiple negative factors superimposed influence, the A share market fell, the Shanghai composite index went down low, the whole day fell nearly 3%, the gem index fell 3.55%.

Whether China's economic operation is U or L, it is difficult to change the pattern of market turbulence. The biggest difference between the two is the difference in the structure of shocks. The L economy is more conducive to the market performance of small and medium-sized theme stocks, such as subject shares, growth stocks, mergers and acquisitions, etc.

Multiple profits overlay led to a crash.

In view of yesterday's market crash, Zhao Xia, head of the macro strategy group of the Chinese business fund, believes that this is the continuation of last Friday's adjustment and further hit the market.

。

Zhao Xia analysis shows that, from the recent fundamentals, financial regulation is strengthened, and the regulation of the Internet and medical industry is also strengthening. In April, macro data may weaken under the short term policy, which will further affect the market.

From the perspective of market characteristics, A shares are still in the stock market crash, and the market risk preference is relatively low. The rising momentum is always very weak, and the hot spots are also very scattered.

A large fund manager in Beijing also said that the stock market was down sharply.

The cautious attitude towards China's stock return and shell resources speculation is related.

The fund manager said, "after the two sessions this year, the concept of" suspension and growth "in the registration system has been postponed, and the concept of" M & a growth "has become hot. Shell resources and small and medium sized stocks have been heated up by the market. After a half month's rise, regulators' tightening of backdoor policy will disrupt the hype logic, which will naturally trigger the adjustment of the market.

In addition, the massive lifting of market expectations in June may also weigh heavily on A shares.

Zhao Xia said that the lifting of the ban in June was second only to December, and the total lifting of the ban in 5~6 months was about 450 billion yuan, accounting for 20% of the lifting of the ban.

The recent performance of A shares is caused by the superposition of these negative factors.

Market shock pattern difficult to change

On the news side, this newspaper interview authoritative person's news in the A share market receives the widespread attention.

The news said, "China's economic operation can not be U type, and it can not be V type, but the trend of L type.

This L type is a phase, not one or two years old.

Gao Feng, deputy general manager of North China Ruifeng fund, believes that no country's economic growth can be maintained at over 8% for a long time. In the past, the rapid growth of China's economy was on the very low base, and the results of institutional dividend and demographic dividend played a common role.

Although there may be fluctuations, it is an inevitable trend to slow down to 6% or below in the future. In this sense, it is more similar to L.

Celestica fund also believes that the current Chinese economy is the L trend, a small rebound in the first quarter is due to the steady growth of the bottom of the operation.

In the long run, China's economy is entering the medium and high speed development period from the high speed development stage. From the investment driven economy to the consumption driven economy, the decline of economic growth is a trend, and it is also normal, and is the inevitable manifestation of pformation.

Turning to the impact of macroeconomic trends on A shares, the peak said, "from past data, the A share market trend and macroeconomic data is not strong correlation.

But in theory, the U trend will certainly be more powerful in supporting the stock market, and also conducive to the performance of the cyclical companies' share price. Under the L trend, they are more optimistic about the performance of the emerging growth industry.

The aforementioned large public fund managers also believe that China's economic operation, whether U type or L type, is difficult to change the pattern of A share shock market. The difference is that U is a strong shock market, and L is a weak shock market. The biggest difference between them is the difference in the structure of shocks.

The fund manager said that the reversal of macroeconomic U would not necessarily be particularly beneficial to the stock market. On the one hand, some entities would generate profits, which would trigger a structural rise in the stock market; on the other hand, if the real economy was developing well, the funds would "go to the real", and from the two level market to the real economy, the overall PE level of the market would also decline.

If the macroeconomic trend is L, the real economy will remain at the current level. Corporate profits will be relatively plain. There is no better allocation of market funds. The stock market will not be too tight. The overall valuation of A shares will not be depressed by funds.

"Whether the macroeconomic operation is U or L, it is difficult to change the A share market."

The fund manager said, "U type, the index is a concussion City, the structure is good cyclical stock, L is also a shock market, but the shock structure good theme shares, growth stocks, mergers and acquisitions and other small and medium-sized theme categories.

"

June or current direction choice

Under the weak pattern, public offering investment is not pessimistic.

A number of people interviewed by reporters said that in June, the stock market is expected to have a mid-term directional choice, and event driven and structural investment opportunities will gradually emerge.

Beijing's large public fund managers believe that the stock market will remain volatile in May, and there will be no "stock disaster 4". First, because the national team will maintain stability; two, there will be some positive factors in the stock market in June, when there will be a mid directional choice.

The fund manager analyzed that there were some positive factors in the market in June.

On the one hand, the national financial work conference will be held in June for five years. There will be two core issues at the meeting: the introduction of debt to equity swap program and the reform of the financial regulatory system; on the other hand, whether the A share will be included in the MSCI index in June.

"Debt to equity swap is good for cyclical stocks and bank shares. If A shares are included in the MSCI index, it will be good for the whole market, and the financial regulatory system reform will also have significant changes in the regulatory thinking. If these policies and expectations are fulfilled, the market will probably generate" 28 division "market in June, good cyclical stocks and bank shares.

The fund manager said that this decline is likely to be a mechanism for chips, and market funds will go from the small and medium sized sectors to the target stocks such as cyclical stocks and bank shares.

Peak also believes that the two quarter and the second half of the market opportunities are still falling out, "if the market in May has more full of panic release, we will be more optimistic about the market trend in June and the second half.

We will focus on looking for companies that are steadfast in their industry, focus on R & D investment, growth in performance and valuation.

The peak said that in the investment strategy, if there is policy change, while controlling the overall position, we should pay attention to avoid the following companies: first, the industries with serious excess capacity, such as infrastructure, real estate, nonferrous metals and other strong cyclical industries; the two is only talking about concepts, but in the near future there will not be any theme companies with high performance and high valuation; three, the shell companies with high market value.

In the long term, Tianhong Fund believes that the economy is the L trend, which means to reduce the expected investment returns.

To be specific to the stock market, it is necessary to prepare for systematic opportunities in the concussion market. The positions should not be too high. We should select industries that are in line with the logic of economic pformation and select stocks that will increase profit growth in order to cope with the concussion and possible downside risks of systemic valuation.