PTA Is Expected To Remain Strong In The Short Term.

From the perspective of supply and demand of PTA, May will still be in the state of going out of stock, and the supply is tight.

However, with the increase of the restart of the maintenance unit and the arrival of the end of the polyester plant and the end of the peak season, the tight supply will be eased. The 6 month will return to the stock accumulation situation, and the basic situation will be weakened.

Later need to pay close attention to device maintenance and restart, especially whether Yisheng Dalian 220 million tons of maintenance and whether the new equipment, Xiang Lu device restart, which has a greater impact on the supply side.

Crude oil is expected to be strong, naphtha cracking spreads are relatively low, it is difficult to continue to shrink, the supply of PX is tight in the two quarter, and the upstream cost side has a strong supporting role for PTA.

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From the perspective of supply and demand, the 5 month will remain in a state of inventory, and the supply will be tight.

However, as the reboot of the maintenance unit increases (the capacity of the restart is greater than the overhaul) and the arrival of the late polyester and weaving factories at the end of the peak season, the tight supply will tend to ease. The 6 month will return to the stock accumulation situation, and the basic situation will be weakened.

Later need to pay close attention to device maintenance and restart, especially whether Yisheng Dalian 220 million tons of maintenance and whether the new equipment, Xiang Lu device restart, which has a greater impact on the supply side.

From the point of view of industrial profits, PTA will have huge profit in processing, which will attract industrial capital operation to lock in processing profits, and may delay the repair or restart of the equipment. Downstream polyester profits continue to decline, POY loss will expand, DTY profits will be continuously compressed, downstream efforts will be insufficient, and the scope of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has begun to expand.

The weakening phenomenon has been enhanced. The weakness of terminal demand will continue to suppress the profit of polyester, and the possibility of increasing load in polyester factories is relatively small.

And the lack of downstream cooperation, PTA speculation will also be a certain degree of inhibition.

From the inventory view, with the approaching of the end of the peak season, the weaving plant operation rate may fall in the middle of 5 months, and the stock probability of polyester manufacturers is higher; PX

The reboot of maintenance units increased, and in late May, PTA inventory began to pick up.

From warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts before deliveries are expected to reach a record high level of 15 years over the same period, because the warehouse receipts can not be moved to the January contract, September contracts are facing greater pressure on warehouse receipts.

In summary, PTA is expected to remain strong in the short term as the overall atmosphere of commodities is good, the crude oil market is going well, the supply and demand is in the state of inventory and the pursuit of speculative capital is strong. But in the basic situation and the downstream market situation, it is not enough for PTA to continue to rise.

Operation, before the disappearance of the whole commodity market, it is recommended to wait for a short period of time, or to buy short trading in Gaoping and light storehouses.