PTA Period Price Completely Out Of The Bottom Interval Is Still Difficult.

Commodities rebounded all over again in June, but most commodities did not rebound at 0.50.

Among them, the PTA main force 1609 contract gold rate 0.50 position is roughly 4850 yuan / ton, up to now, the highest rebound is only 4808 yuan / ton.

Combined with the rebound performance in the first 4 months of this year and from the basic situation, it is still difficult for the PTA market to be completely free from the bottom section.

In the previous wave of commodity rebound, PTA started later than most chemical products, while the cumulative rebound rate was 23.59% lower than that of other 30% or more chemical products in China.

By the end of last year, the nominal capacity of the domestic PTA industry reached 46 million 930 thousand tons, exceeding the nominal capacity of 46 million 580 thousand tons of downstream polyester.

It is estimated that the apparent consumption of PTA industry will reach 32 million tons this year, and the annual average load will be reduced to 66%. The pattern of absolute excess capacity is obvious.

Previously, statistics showed that

Long term idle accounted for about 28%.

However, the latest situation is a year of shutdown. The 700 thousand ton / year PTA device in Fujian has been restarted, and the restructuring of the Far East petrochemical and Xiang Lu Petrochemical is likely to restart in the second half of the year.

It is estimated that in the next 3 years, China will still add 6 million tons / year PTA capacity.

On the one hand, the polyester industry is speeding up shuffling.

In 2009, the polyester industry entered a new round of production peak, with an average annual production capacity of 3 million 500 thousand tons, and business efficiency began to decline in 2012.

In early May this year,

The Confederation announced its bankruptcy. The group has several core garment enterprises.

It is understood that in recent two years, there have been up to 16 chemical fiber enterprises that have failed.

Has entered the accelerated shuffle period.

On the other hand, the terminal textile industry is depressed.

In 2015, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 283 billion 849 million US dollars, down 4.9% from the same period last year, and the overall export decline was faster than the 1.4% level of the whole country's foreign trade exports.

From 1 to May this year, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 101 billion 16 million US dollars, down 1.97% from the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 43 billion 325 million US dollars, down 0.03% from the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 57 billion 692 million US dollars, down 3.19% from the same period last year.

It can be seen that the overall export of textile and clothing is still decreasing and no obvious improvement has been seen.

As of June 22nd, the number of PTA warehouse receipts was 170286, with an effective forecast of 6439, totaling 176725 pieces, totaling 883625 tons, representing an increase of 19.37% compared with 740235 tons in the same period in 2015, close to the highest warehouse inventory level since the launch of PTA futures.

Meanwhile, the PTA inventory level of polyester factories has also risen to a high level in recent years.

At present, crude oil production in major oil producing areas, including Russia and OPEC, remains at a high level. In May, the average daily output was 10 million 830 thousand barrels and 32 million 520 thousand barrels respectively.

Although crude oil output has declined, US commercial crude oil stocks remain at a historical high of 532 million barrels.

In addition, the number of oil drilling platforms in the United States has increased for three consecutive weeks.

From a technical point of view, crude oil on Friday's 60 day average line has been supported and rebounded sharply. Short term crude oil interval oscillation, below the key support position in the vicinity of 46.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, the upper pressure level is concerned about the previous high of 52.28 U.S. dollars / barrel.