The Supply Of Cotton Market Is Still Not Abundant.

This year, cotton futures can be seen as a leader in soft goods. According to statistics, from the low level of 9645 yuan / ton in March 1, 2016 to the high point of 16185 yuan / ton in July 18th, Zheng cotton 1701 contract rose 61.86%. The latest round of accelerated rise began in June 17th, and the cumulative increase in the 22 trading days reached 22.97%. For the current round of cotton market rise, the industry said, from the supply and demand of the whole year, cotton spot supply is tight this year, although there is reserve cotton replenishment stock, but because of fiber inspection and slow speed, and traders can participate in the auction and other reasons, the supply of cotton market is still not well-off.

According to China cotton information network data, in July 22nd, the spot trading of the national cotton trading market shrank and the average price increased. The average price of the contract in recent months and the price difference between Zheng cotton futures contract in recent months were 466 yuan / ton. Spot trading on the spot has the following characteristics: first, the volume is reduced, the contract turnover is low in recent months, active trading is concentrated in the far month contract; secondly, the order quantity increases. The increase in orders on the same day came mainly from the new contract MA1701, with a slight increase or decrease in other contracts.

The spot market is adjusted at a high level, with a slight difference in prices between different grades. The overall quotation is higher. It is reported that the new cotton price in the new year is good at about 16300-16500 yuan / ton, while the reserve cotton talks about 15100-15800 yuan / ton, and Australia cotton talks about 16700-16800 yuan / ton. India cotton prices fell for the first time because of the increase in rainfall and output, and the increase in textile purchases by foreign textile enterprises. The price of the S6 flower factory was 90 cents / pound, and CCI decided to open the stock to sell to small textile enterprises below the market price, but the amount was limited.

Liu Qiannan, a researcher at the galaxy futures textile department, said that the turnover rate of cotton reserves was 100% recently, and the textile enterprises increased the price positively. The average transaction price was over 15000 yuan / ton, the highest transaction price was record high, the highest was over 16000 yuan / ton, and the strong spot price in the domestic market was also a support for the futures price rising. On the international market, cotton prices continued to rise in India, which also led to the rise of international cotton prices, and domestic Cotton price The formation of internal and external echoes, scrambling to rise. However, the recent weak trend of the overall commodity environment, and Zheng cotton due to the early rise too fast, and the recent increase in the number of cotton reserves listed in the past few weeks, India cotton prices have also been lowered, so ushered in the recent few callbacks.

Nanhua futures analyst Xiao Yan also pointed out that Zheng cotton began to rise in mid June because of the contradiction between supply and demand intensification. "The rise is due to the mismatch of supply and demand, reflecting the sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the short run. The textile enterprises have been unable to get the cotton in hand, and the traders are unwilling to sell the cotton in the hand. In addition, the rising trend of US cotton and the overall upward trend of bulk commodities also stimulate enthusiasm for cotton frying.

On the basic level, according to China's cotton net data, the national cotton market monitoring system launched an investigation on the growth of Chinese cotton in mid and late 6. The sample involved 15 provinces (autonomous regions), 74 cotton planting counties (cities, farms), and 3700 designated cotton planting information contact households. The survey showed that cotton growth was basically normal in the the Yellow River River Basin and the northwest inland cotton region by the end of June. Yangtze river basin The occurrence of waterlogging has an impact on cotton growth. The number of cotton bolls and bolls decreased year by year, and the picking time was expected to be delayed. If the weather is normal, it is estimated that the new cotton output per unit area will be 110.3 kg / mu in 2016, 8.3% higher than the previous year, and the total output will be 4 million 839 thousand tons, a decrease of 7.2%.

Looking ahead, Liu Qiannan believes that Reserve cotton Under the premise of unchanged policy, cotton supply and demand are tight. In August, after the end of the cotton reserves, there were two months' empty window period in the middle of the new flower batch listing. The reserve cotton and about 500000 tons of resources were available, and the amount of cotton in the hands of traders was not great, so the future cotton trend was strong. However, Fu Xiaoyan reminded that the air bearer atmosphere may be more and more intense. For the 1701 contract, the 16000 point will be strong pressure, which can be used as a short stop point, and cotton can also be considered.