There Will Be A Substantial Reduction In The Price Of India Yarn.

According to the latest forecast of India Cotton Association, the lint yield of India in 2016/17 was 33 million 600 thousand packs (5 million 712 thousand tons), a slight decline compared with 2015/16; consumption in the new year was about 30 million 900 thousand packs (5 million 253 thousand tons), plus initial inventory, and the supply of 2016/17 was 1 million 513 thousand tons higher than that of consumption.

At the end of September, the factory price of S-6 ginning factory in India in 2015/16 was 46750 rupees / candi (about 89.60 cents / pound), while a small amount of Punjab new flower J34 was listed at about 4350 rupees / mod (about 79.40 cents / pound), and the difference between Chen cotton and Xin cotton reached 10 cents / pound.

From a time perspective, after November, the new cotton market in India increased significantly, and the pressure of cotton supply began to appear. Therefore, it is estimated that the India yarn quotation in December and after shipment will be greatly reduced, leading to the following factors of India yarn.

First,

Prices are falling.

Due to the high price of cotton in India in 8 and September, not only did Pakistan and India cotton mills import large quantities of cotton and West African cotton, but also the cotton mills in India, Senna, Gujarat, Punjab and so on reduced production greatly, and cotton consumption declined sharply. Since late September, the factory price of India cotton S-6 cotton ginning factory has been quoted at a higher price than that of 10/11 months. The shipping date of C/ASM and EMOTSM is 8-10 cents / pound, India Chen cotton has almost lost its competitiveness in the global market, and at present, the difference between the new cotton and the old cotton of India is too large, and the new cotton of the United States plays a "yardstick" role for the new flower of India, so the new cotton can only be substantially reduced to suit the competitive rhythm of the cotton and West African cotton.

Two, India

Exports are in a "dilemma".

According to statistics from India, cotton exports in India have shrunk considerably since the 2 quarter of this year, and exports in August almost fell. India's exports to China accounted for only about 24% of the total export volume of cotton yarn exported in India, while the average monthly value in the 2014 and 2015 months was about 50%.

Not only did China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries ask for India yarn, their demand also declined.

On the one hand, the price of India yarn FOB and CNF is obviously higher than that of Pakistan and Uzbekistan (Zhong Yasha), but the quality can not be followed up. On the other hand, Vietnamese yarn "suddenly rises", has occupied the share of India yarn from China, Southeast Asia, South America and other countries.

India yarn and India cotton fell into the same trap of "quality is not good, price is not cheap".

Three, India's capacity is rising.

Unable.

From the survey point of view, in recent years, India, like Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and other countries, has continuously improved its spinning capacity. However, the downstream industry chain such as weaving, printing and dyeing, clothing and so on has not followed up. The production and export capacity of the C32S and more counts of the combed yarn and the combed yarn in India cotton mill has increased rapidly, and the ring spinning and OE yarn gradually withdrew from 16S and below. However, its domestic demand and consumption for high count yarn, combed yarn, compact spinning and so on are seriously insufficient.

According to the latest monthly report of USDA, India cotton cotton consumption in 2016/17 is about 5 million 225 thousand tons, less than ICA's forecast of 28 thousand tons, but cotton demand shows obvious signs of adjustment. The demand for high-quality, high-grade cotton such as S-6, MCU5 and J34 has increased significantly, and cotton yarn above 21S will be the direction and focus of export.