The Federal Reserve Is Close To A Civil War.

Of the 10 members who currently have voting rights in the open market meeting of the Federal Reserve, only 3 hawks are Esther George, Loretta Mester and Eric Rosengren.

According to the minutes of the September meeting, those members who support raising interest rates worry that if the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates rapidly after the inflation rate is rising rapidly, the interest rate at the current low level may accelerate the economic recession.

In addition to three members who support the increase in interest rates, Fisher, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, expressed his views on the danger of low interest rates early this week.

Fisher pointed out that "the limitation of monetary policy to maintain low interest rates is that if the economy is hit by negative factors, such a policy may trigger a deeper and deeper recession.

Fisher said the Fed needs to keep interest rates low, but it needs to be supplemented by more aggressive fiscal policies.

This degree of opposition was only once before Yellen's career. It was December 2014.

Should we maintain the current policy or speed up the pace of raising interest rates, the market will be greatly affected.

Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen has created a high-pressure economic environment for the United States, which has created an environment of increasing internal differentiation for the Fed.

After the market was shaken last week, Yellen restated

A higher advantage, though it may bring unemployment down to its lowest level in history, triggering the Fed's tightening strategy.

For many observers, it is clear that Yellen is a dove on the issue of interest rates.

But this attitude may exacerbate tensions among the Fed's open market members, especially those who advocate higher interest rates.

Doug Roberts, the first investment strategist of Channel Capital Research, said, "although the Fed did not raise interest rates in September as expected, however,

The interior is not as calm as people believe.

The Federal Reserve is close to a civil war.

The battle between hawks and doves is in progress. "

Roberts said, "the current situation is like a civil war.

The consensus is that hawks say that the Fed should start slowly to raise interest rates, and they hope to open the rate hike window.

The parties seem to be negotiating on the new consensus.

For me, this is what the market is concerned about.

"

Traders now believe that the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December is 70%, but there will be no further action until September 2017.

Although the Fed has always declared its independence, Roberts believes that the upcoming US presidential election will have an impact on the Fed's policy.

US Federal Reserve officials appointed by President Obama are all doves.

Obama chose Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve for the two time before, and then appointed dove Yellen to become chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2013.

Democratic Party candidate Hilary rarely mentioned the Fed's topic in the campaign, but Republican candidate Trump has been very angry with the Federal Reserve, especially Yellen.

Once Trump comes to power, he may appoint more hawkish officials, even though Trump supports them.

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Wall Street itself is divided on the issue of raising interest rates.

Some worry that the current low interest rate environment will lead to capital mismatch and push up asset prices, especially stock prices, which will affect the income of depositors and pension funds and drag down economic growth.

Goldman Sachs issued a report on Friday that the benefits of the high-pressure economy strategy are limited considering the current low productivity problem.

David Mericle and Avisha Thakkar, Goldman Sachs analyst, said: "there is little confidence in the rise in productivity under the high pressure economy.

The biggest advantage of the high pressure economy is that the income of low-income workers will rise in a tight job market.

But they do not think these effects will affect the Federal Reserve's solidarity.

"Fed officials who believe in the high pressure economy and do not think this economic expansion is sustainable will not be persuaded by these benefits.

On the other hand, for those officials who believe there is no connection between them, the high-pressure economy is more like a trade-off between low risk and low yield.

We believe that the Fed's remarks last week are signs of intense discussions within the Fed.

This is an important indicator for the fed to raise interest rates next year or even later.