The Depreciation Of The Year Will Be Negative And The Risk Of RMB Exchange Rate Will Remain.

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December and superimpose Trump's global market sentiment triggered by the US presidential election. The US dollar index is also continuing strong in the near future.

This also means that most of the non US currencies, including the renminbi, will be devalued to varying degrees.

The US dollar index for WSJ against 16 currencies has risen 0.5% to 90.13.

Cheng Shi, director of ICBC's international research department, has said earlier that the central parity of RMB breaking 6.8 was mainly influenced by the overnight dollar strengthening. At present, the US dollar is in the stage of rush after the general election and the rate increase before the interest rate rises, while the RMB is in the overshoot of the short-term exchange rate.

The dollar is expected to fall after breaking through the 100 pass before the end of the year.

At the same time, the RMB is also close to the equilibrium exchange rate, and there is no big deviation.

He said that the bottom line of the RMB depreciation is some, but the devaluation of the devil and the US dollar has always been greater, and the prediction of the RMB against the US dollar at the end of this year is maintained at the end of this year.

Jian Ping, chief economic officer of the National Information Center, said recently that the economy would support the RMB exchange rate.

Without deducting price factors, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 7.1%, the two quarter was 7.3%, and the three quarter was 7.8%.

It can be seen that if the price factor is taken into consideration, the average index of GDP is rising.

Shen Wan Hongyuan research report believes that as the process of concentrating foreign debt repayment is drawing to a close, the most important factor of capital outflow in 2015 has subsided, and the power of non speculative capital outflow has been greatly weakened.

In the context of repair, the central bank and the foreign exchange bureau strengthened the implementation of foreign exchange management, the scale of generalized hot money outflow narrowed significantly in the second half of last year.

The balance of payments structure has changed significantly compared with the second half of last year, which will become an important factor for easing the pressure of RMB depreciation in 2017 over the past 15-16 years.

At present, the general view of the organization is that the Fed's interest rate increase makes the US dollar index stronger in the short term and pressure on the RMB. This situation is hard to sustain.

However, in view of the difficult situation of China's foreign trade situation, the worry of RMB depreciation still exists.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shen Wan Hongyuan, also believes that the depreciation of RMB in the year has basically come to an end. If there is any further depreciation, there will be greater exchange losses.

However, it is noteworthy that once entering 2017, the pressure of depreciation will increase again with the coming of the 50 thousand dollar exchange rate quota at the beginning of the year.

It will again depreciate by 5% to 7.3 by 2017.

According to the Research Report of state securities, although the United States is unlikely to implement a tighter trade policy in China in the short term.

However, if China's export growth declines sharply, the reduction of trade surplus will be unfavorable to the demand for RMB and may accelerate the depreciation of the renminbi.

According to the current market analysis, China's imports and exports in October continued negative growth year-on-year, with a drop of more than expected, and the weak domestic and foreign demand pattern remained unchanged.

Whereas

Still in the doldrums, the total volume of trade is shrinking and protectionism is on the rise. Next year, China's foreign trade situation is still not optimistic.

Guo Lian securities also reported that the pressure on the future depreciation of the yuan against the US dollar was mainly due to the recovery of the US economy and the export downturn brought by the trend of counter globalization. Trump came to power just to represent and cater to this trend.

According to estimates, if the central bank acquiesced in the RMB exchange rate index to depreciate by 3% a year, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar could break 7.

Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS, also said that the pressure of RMB devaluation might be greater in the future. At the end of this year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will be around 6.8, and that will be around 7.2 by the end of next year.

If the US dollar weakens and the US does not raise tariffs on Chinese products, the RMB against the US dollar may be stronger than expected at the end of next year; but if the US implements unilateral tariff measures on Chinese products, the US dollar appreciates significantly, then the yuan will be traded against the US dollar at the end of 2017.

The value of devaluation may exceed 7.2.

HSBC securities analysts believe that the renminbi will be relatively resilient in the near future, as the market has made a hedging response to Trump's election to the US presidency.

However, once Trump plans to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports, the above situation will only be short-lived.

However, the more important factors affecting the RMB exchange rate have always been determined by China itself. Market expectations and the tolerance of the Central Bank of China to the exchange rate trend are all important factors affecting the trend of the RMB exchange rate.