Global Trade Liberalization Is Irreversible. Trump'S Remarks Affect The World Economy.

From the general history of the United States, whether Clinton, George W. Bush or Obama, any president needs to rely on his think tank to make decisions.

Although it will be eloquent during the canvassing campaign, the presidential election of the United States can be said to be mainly based on the blow of a local tyrant image of civilians.

Many of the so-called commitments during the campaign will not become a reality. So what will he do after his inauguration? We can not predict at all. We can not even know why a uncle who wants to eat or worry about money is running for president of the United States.

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Trump has been a successful businessman, or at least a successful businessman. Although he has no experience in governing the country, he has at least a wealth of experience in governing his huge business consortium.

If businessmen do not necessarily understand politics, former US President Reagan was once an actor, and his contribution during the administration was obvious to all.

From the perspective of the development of Sino US relations, the two countries have also changed many leaders since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. However, in the context of heated exchanges between China and the United States, trade, science, education, culture and security, the two economies have benefited.

Therefore, after Trump became president, the president, who is well versed in commercial operation and able to strategize in business, is bound to take the overall situation into account and handle various diplomatic relations.

Trump is bound to understand the truth. He occupies an absolute leading position in his business group because of his absolute shareholding, and he can do whatever he wants. For his upcoming American president, he is like a professional manager. It is not the United States of his own, but the American of every American.

What's more, the president of the United States is not saying anything. The United States is a country divided by three powers. Many national affairs and diplomatic events are not Trump's own decisions.

If Trump really worries about economic development after taking office, there is no need to worry. The Constitution also provides that Congress can impeach the president.

We often think that China is a processing plant in the United States. In fact, this concept is somewhat narrow, and the world is generally a processing plant in the United States.

Trade protection and trade openness are both two-way and double-edged sword. If Trump breaks the policy situation caused by the support of the global forces from the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, stops the "unfair import" and ends the "unfair trade practices" to implement trade protection, it will weaken the unmeasurable risks faced by the United States in the global market, and at the same time will substantially reduce the opportunities the United States can get.

In fact, for both China and the United States, the other side is not the only trade partner. If the US weakens its trade with China, it also means that China will also weaken imports and processing of American products.

In addition, in terms of Trump's personality, if it truly implements trade war and trade protection, it will be cold to many countries and regions at the same time, just like isolating itself in general.

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In the process of the irreversible process of liberalization, no economy can be independent, and partial or omnidirectional trade protection will be harmful. This will not only jeopardise the economic development of the two countries, but also affect the healthy development of the global economy. Trump can not be aware of this.

From the point of view of monetary policy, the Fed has insisted on not raising interest rates for a long time this year, perhaps worrying about the impact of the presidential election.

If we only look at Trump's confidence, the Federal Reserve.

The probability will increase, and the US dollar should remain strong after its accession. This means that it will strike against the RMB and the risk of RMB depreciation will continue to rise.

From the perspective of Trump's economic stimulus plan, the core of its campaign is comprehensive tax cuts, such as income tax, corporate tax, capital gains tax and property tax.

The purpose of tax cuts is actually to reduce the burden on enterprises. This is the aspiration of all countries to stimulate investment in various funds to drive economic growth, and then to stimulate employment and boost consumption and investment in the United States.

Tax cuts are a good thing. This also means that the revenue of the US government will shrink dramatically. The deficit problem is probably very serious, which is not a good thing for the world economy.

Trump, who is well versed in the way of doing business, must understand the so-called "pull the trigger" and move the whole body. If he has just taken office, he will make drastic changes or even reverse changes soon. This will destroy the economic order that has been formed, do not mention the adverse effects on the global economy and the Chinese economy, and will also have an impact on the US economy, and more likely to lead to a series of unstable factors such as civil strife.

Therefore, I do not think Trump will do exactly what he said when he was elected. Instead, he would weigh the pros and cons and take care of the overall situation.

Of course, Trump began to worry when he was not yet inaugurated.

Whether it will be affected or not, some of them are worried. If China's macroeconomic environment stabilizes, under the support of various policies, it is capable of resisting external disadvantages.

Under the layout of China's comprehensive opening up, it has formed close cooperation with many other economies and will not be impacted by changes in the US.

Although Trump said, "because China has lost 50 thousand manufacturing jobs, and even 7 million jobs," but perhaps without China, their current jobs may not exist at all.