Cost Side And Downstream Support Keep PTA Price Center Moving Upward.

Upstream, the upward trend of the international oil price and the depreciation of the RMB will drive up the cost side support. In the first half of this year, the Asian PX manufacturers will focus on overhaul, the restart of the maintenance equipment in the second half of the year and the commissioning of the new capacity. The price of PX will increase and the PX processing fee level will be higher before and after the forecast.

The load is still expected to be higher.

But the recovery of textile and garment industry is slow. It is doubtful whether the terminal demand can be followed up in the late stage. After May, the market will have a moderate callback.

Spot price: East China

The market negotiation remained at 5340-5350 yuan, and the spot and 05 contract basis negotiated to maintain 175-180 yuan in the vicinity. The warehouse receipt negotiation remained at the vicinity of 160-170 yuan, and the market turnover atmosphere was lighter.

The US dollar offer is intended to be $635-660 / ton bonded, and the shipping offer is expected to remain near us $650-655 / ton. The intention is $635-640 / ton, and the discussion is limited around $635-645.

Installation: India's reliance on PX's new capacity of 2 million 200 thousand tons / year is scheduled to start in early January.

The latest news is that it has been debugged a few days ago, and has heard that a line has already produced qualified products, which has not been officially confirmed. It is estimated that the supply of goods in the region will enter the domestic market by about March 2017.

In addition, relying on the petrochemical plan to join the ACP seller in Asia, the initial progress is scheduled for July 2017, and the specific progress still needs to be discussed; the 1 million 250 thousand ton / year PTA plant of BP Zhuhai petrochemical company has stopped due to equipment failure in December 29th, and the restart time has yet to be determined.

Last week, after the same callback, pet industry rose in the first half of the week. When the cost of callbacks increased, the terminal parking increased and the purchasing atmosphere was weak, the pet factory's sporadic price increase was increased. On Wednesday, the external market rose, polyester cost increased, and many factories were replenishing the goods at the end of the month.

Production and marketing is relatively poor, more than 6-7 in the vicinity of wandering.

As of last Friday, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces

Factory POY, FDY and DTY stocks are 2.9, 5.7 and 9.9 days respectively.

In 2017, with the support of cost end and downstream, the price of PTA moved upward. The supply and demand situation in the first half of the year was much more favorable. In the second half of the year, due to the expected resumption of production, the textile and garment industry which is still in a declining position may limit the increase of raw material prices, the supply and demand situation is weaker or weaker than the first half of the year, and the PTA market in 2017 shows a trend of first growth and suppression. The overall operation interval is estimated at 4800 yuan / ton -6000 yuan / ton.

At present, the viscose staple fiber continues to be strong and upward trend. The situation of East China manufacturers is still not ideal, and the supply of industry continues to be tight.

However, close to the new year, only 2 weeks are approaching the Lunar New Year holiday. Due to the macroeconomic downturn this year, some downstream markets will be closed in the short term.

It is understood that although the price of raw materials market is strong, inventory is tight, but the majority of gray fabric links, short term orders fear that there will be compression in the near future, downstream replenishment will come to an end.

Overall, downstream demand and the coming of the Lunar New Year holiday have made the situation of viscose rise somewhat eased. We believe that viscose will still increase in January, but the increase will not be too large in the short term.

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