Shenzhen Three Index Is Still In The Short Market, A Shares Are Expected To Stand On 3200 Points.

Before the Spring Festival, I have repeatedly reminded that the annual spring market quotation is an objective law which is not pferred by anyone's will.

If there are no quotations in the stock market in spring, then it will be as terrible as spring farmers do not cultivate their crops.

Management must correct the mistaken ideas about direct financing and adopt the principle of "issuing bonds primarily and supplemented by listing" to the intended financing enterprises. It should not be too strict in limiting asset restructuring and mergers and acquisitions, but should use market-based means to allow them to withdraw indirectly from the stock market.

Despite the daily diving of the first three days, the stock index broke through 60 antennas 3168 points and 3174 pre highs on Thursday and Friday for two consecutive days, creating a 3205 point high in one fell swoop.

The outbreak of "Chun Sheng" market has been widely recognized by the market.

But from the perspective of market sentiment, it is still mixed.

One worry: management has made a one-sided understanding of "increasing the proportion of direct financing".

Admittedly, one of the important tasks of the stock market is to increase direct financing and support the real economy.

But what is the meaning of direct financing? There has been a serious deviation in understanding.

Some people believe that in order to reduce the economic dependence on bank loans (indirect financing) and prevent and defuse financial risks, we must increase direct financing, speed up the issue of new shares, and solve the IPO queuing "barrier lake".

However, the whole market, from regulators to authoritative media, does not understand an important fact that 90% of the direct financing of the US up to 85% is debt financing, and the proportion of new stock financing is very small. Even the US stock market with more than 20000 point index has only 100 left and right new shares a year.

In China's stock market, it equates the direct financing and the expansion of new shares, creating a world stock market spectacle that produces 2-3 new shares and 2-3 new shares each day.

People can not help asking: why does the Chinese stock market implement "increasing the proportion of direct financing"? It is not the main reason for the enterprises to raise funds to issue bonds, but to raise funds in the stock market.

To put it in a nutshell, issuing bonds is a way to repay debts, but not to repay the shares. The right to issue bonds must have effective collateral, and the banks are very strict in censorship. If the issuing committee passes the bill, it will be able to collect money from the market, and a big "big non" can realisse assets or even run away after 3 years.

Therefore, management must correct the misunderstanding of direct financing, get rid of the dependence of new stock issuance, and adopt the principle of "issuing debt right and listing as auxiliary" to queue up to be listed enterprises, so as to effectively solve the problem of queuing up new stocks.

Worry two: management did not realize that increasing asset restructuring is a good way to quit poor listed companies.

Recently, the appeal for increasing the delisting intensity can often be seen in the media.

Some articles are often denounced as "garbage" and "black five categories" by the listed companies with poor performance.

However, apart from a large number of listed companies' malicious shareholders tunneling out of listed companies, most of the listed companies have a historical reason.

Or the supervision is lax and mixed up in the market, or in 1998 stressed that "the stock market is a state-owned enterprise to turn around the deficit service", forcing the company to be listed with a loss company, or in the process of economic restructuring and pformation.

In the past few years, the small and medium investors in the performance companies have made great contributions to the development of the stock market for more than 20 years.

Nowadays, if the company with a bad performance is retired, it is not in line with China's reality and will lead to social instability.

Even if we want to retire, we must start with a new rule of delisting.

In accordance with China's old and new method of delimitation, through the reform of state-owned assets, mixed reform,

In the way of acquisition and merger, it is a form of delisting system in a disguised manner by using market-based means to pform the underperforming shares into new ones.

For example, after the reorganization of the old Shanghai eight stocks, the market has actually been delisted.

Some of the newly acquired companies have become good companies.

Therefore, the current management of asset restructuring and mergers and acquisitions, can emphasize the standard operation, strictly prohibit false restructuring, and should not be too strict restrictions.

It is a most effective way to improve the quality of listed companies instead of seeking quantity by promoting the queuing up enterprises and the large number of unlisted enterprises, and carrying out asset reorganization and merger and acquisition with the existing more than 3200 listed companies.

Anxiety is also good.

One of the positive: tensions between China and the US, which once plagued the stock market, have been eased.

From the beginning of the year to the Spring Festival, investors in the A stock market are worried about the Trump administration's position on the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, as well as the promises made in the campaign that China will be listed as a currency manipulator and impose a 45% tariff on Chinese goods.

As Trump issued a new year's congratulatory letter to China recently, he promised Xi Jinping a policy in his call, giving investors Dou Song a sigh of relief.

Positive two: the external stock market is rising steadily.

The US stock market stood firm for 20000 points, the German stock market stabilized 11000 points, the British stock market stood firm 7000 points, the Japanese stock market approached 20000 points, and the Hongkong stock market was close to 24000.

All these help to stimulate the A stock investors' mood.

Positive three: foreign investment actively overweight A shares.

Before and after the Spring Festival, QFII's enthusiasm for investment in A shares rose high. In the year, "QFII base" has swept blue chip varieties through the bulk trading platform.

The total of 12 QFII was 125 times with a total purchase amount of 5 billion 341 million yuan.

Favorable four: January, the export market is expected to help improve the reduction of foreign exchange reserves.

Five of the good news: the central enterprises will be promoted in an orderly way; the Shanghai state owned assets reform conference will be held in the middle of this month, and it is expected to introduce a number of strong pilot programs; more than 20 provinces and municipalities will determine the timetable for the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises.

This will help the Shanghai composite index rise steadily.

Good six:

The pace of expansion is expected to slow down moderately.

In February 10th, when Chairman Liu Shiyu talked about the IPO and registration system at the securities and futures supervision conference, he said, "it takes 2-3 years to solve the IPO barrier lake".

This is equivalent to whether or not the speculation of IPO dammed lake has been solved this year since the beginning of the market.

Judging from the existing more than 600 queuing enterprises, it seems that the pace of issuing 3 new shares per day is likely to slow down.

It can be said that Liu Shiyu's speech on Friday is the most favorable for the two tier market.

Positive seven: the market is entering a period of stability.

In February, it is not only a data gap but also a policy intensive period.

The holding of the two sessions of the NPC is getting closer and closer. The policy of stabilizing the economy, promoting reform and improving people's livelihood is expected to provide support for the A stock market to continue to pick up.

On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a 3200 point integer pass with a maximum of 3205 points.

However, the market fears that the large cap stocks will pull up to a higher level, resulting in the afternoon closing to 3195 points at noon.

In fact, every index in the market is usually required to sprint repeatedly to stabilize.

Fortunately, the market closed for 57 days on the 2900 point platform, closed 56 days on the 3000 point platform, closed 61 days on the 3100 platform, and closed 20 days on the 3200 platform.

Almost 3 months up 100 points, the foundation is very solid, is a typical "Jack Type" slow uplift trend.

At present, the market already has 3200 conditions on the station.

3200 points will still go.

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Because the average shareholding cost of the 3 month market is 3168 points, therefore, once the top 3200 points rush faster, it will lead to a sell-off of profit making market, so the market is unlikely to soar.

However, the rising average position cost of the market also determines that the market is hard to fall sharply.

In February, the main operating area was at 3200-3300 points, with the main opportunities in structural stocks.

As in the past two days, building materials and infrastructure plates have been rising more vigorously. In the long term reform of state-owned assets in Shanghai, the small cap stocks of 8 yuan -12 yuan have been pulled up.

As a result, the Shanghai stock index is one of the most promising companies. All the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, half year and one year moving average have all stepped under the feet and entered the standard long market or the slow cow market.

The volume of Shanghai stock market has been over 200 billion for 2 consecutive days, and the Shanghai stock market has been only half of the volume of Shenzhen stock market for a long time. Now it has changed to an average level of 7 billion, indicating that the main battlefield of this year's Chun Sheng market is in Shanghai stock market.

However, we must admit that the Shenzhen three index is still in the short market.

The Shenzhen composite index is still under the pressure of 60 antennas, half yearly lines, annual lines, and 234 points, 374 points, and 170 points.

The gem is pressurized with three equal lines, and there are 106 points, 188 points and 215 points.

The small and medium-sized boards are slightly better, standing on the line for 68 years, but they are pressed 60 antennas and half line 245 points, 327 points.

Obviously, the high valuation of the 68 times price earnings ratio of the gem can not attract new funds to intervene, only the intermittent rebound of the new shares.

The overall remission task is quite arduous.

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