PTA'S Focus Is Expected To Return To A Strong Position.

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the price of PTA will be broken, and it will break the oscillation for more than a month. After the festival, the "open door" market of downstream polyester factories is adding another fire to the PTA market, and the price of PTA is steadily increasing. Recently, international oil prices are still at a high level, and PX remains strong. Cost side The strength of the company will provide a strong backing for the PTA price, and PTA is expected to return to a strong position after the short term adjustment.

At the end of January, the unexpected shutdown of two sets of devices in Japan and South Korea prompted a sharp rise in PX quotas in Asia. At present, although the SK 400 thousand tons of equipment in South Korea SK have been restarted, PX is still strong. FOB Korea's offer is hovering at 900 US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and naphtha is back to 400 US dollars / ton, and the cash flow of PX production is around us $50 / ton. Under the stimulation of cost side, the cost of PTA has risen to more than 5500 yuan / ton, and the average processing profit of spot has changed from negative to positive.

The two quarter is PTA In the small sales season, the market rumors that the Far East and Xiang Lu Petrochemical may have a restart plan in the first half of this year, will produce materials ahead of schedule, and the market demand for PX will increase. However, at the same time, the raw material terminal PX will usher in the peak of maintenance, involving the production capacity of 6 million 870 thousand tons, accounting for 15% of the total PX capacity in Asia, and over about 2000000 tons in the same period of the previous two years. The expansion of supply and demand gap will push up the cost of PTA, and the cash flow in PX production will continue to expand.

After the reduction of polyester industry in 2016, the stock of major polyester filament dropped sharply, and the days of polyester storage were basically at a single digit level throughout the fourth quarter. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the polyester market has maintained a high level of enthusiasm, showing a good trend both in terms of price and production and marketing. Although the polyester factory overhauled little during the Spring Festival this year, the start-up load was higher than 10% in previous years, but low inventory laid a good foundation for the market, and the impact of holiday storage was greatly weakened.

Data show that after the festival, the stocks of polyester POY, FDY and DTY are 12, 18 and 24 days respectively, which are 8, 2, 4 days respectively lower than last year's Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival starts this year, the polyester market is red across the market. Price Basically raised 300 - 500 yuan / ton, with the increase in downstream orders, PTA demand is expected to pull again. In 2016, only 2 million 200 thousand tons of HP petrochemical plant was put into operation, and the overcapacity situation was relieved. However, the profit of PTA production did not improve, and the spot processing fee dropped. The average spot processing fee in 2014 was 588 yuan / ton, reaching 503 yuan / ton in 2015, and narrowed to 475 yuan / ton last year.

However, since 2017, the spot profit has been gradually raised in the industrial chain, and the average processing fee has risen to 570 yuan / ton in the current year. The processing fee of the disc is even higher than the 900 yuan / ton. Higher profits will curb some of the strength of the market, and there will be some adjustment needs in the short term price. However, in the medium to long term, the upstream PX market is facing the peak of overhaul. The tight supply is expected to boost the cost of PTA, while the demand for downstream polyester is strong. Replenishment actively promotes PTA consumption. The PTA price is expected to rise again under the superposition of upstream and downstream businesses.

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