Why Do A Shares Stumble?

The economy tends to be stable, and many investors still can't earn money. Why? China's macro-economy and RMB exchange rate exist at the same time for H-shares and A shares. To estimate the value, the average valuation of bank shares is only 6-7 times. Why does H-share go up? A shares are stumbling and going back and forth. The key is that the A share market is too big and too many kinds of bad skins.

Since the beginning of this year, Hongkong's Hang Seng index is 9.24%. hscei With 10.28% growth, it has become the leader of the world's major stock indexes. At the same time, the Dow Jones index rose 4.34%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.19%, while the deep index rose only 0.2%, and the gem index was down 4.08%. Together with the relatively low valuation of Hong Kong stocks, the average PE of Hang Seng index is about 11 times, and H-share is only 9 times.

There is no doubt that H-share is the driving force for Hongkong's stock market to rise, especially in the banking sector. In particular, the 13 trading days since the Spring Festival (for the convenience of statistics, which were calculated from the opening date of A shares in February 3rd), the H-shares of the five major lines, such as Bank of China, ABC, China Construction Bank, Bank of communications and ICBC, rose by 12.86%, 11.42%, 10.24%, 7.92% and 7.66% respectively. The AH share premium also rose to 118%, that is, A shares narrowed from 27% to 18%, and H-shares rose 7.1% on average.

There are many reasons why Hong Kong stocks have gone up. Including a number of macroeconomic data in January showed a good performance, such as PPI rose 6.9%, a sharp rebound in imports and exports, an increase of 19.6%, as well as the stability of the RMB value, and so on. Under such a macro background, the Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong and Shanghai Hong Kong pass system promoted the continuous flow of capital from the south to the Hongkong market, and overseas funds began to flow back to Hong Kong stocks. An obvious indicator is that the volume of Hong Kong stock daily turnover has risen from HK $600-700 to HK $800-900, which has reached HK $110 billion.

The problem is that China's macro-economy and RMB exchange rate exist at the same time for H-shares and A shares. For valuation purposes, the average valuation of banks is only 6-7 times, and some big banks are more than 5 times (5.15 times of ABC and 5.57 times of ICBC). Why do H-share stocks soar? A shares However, statistics even show that even though the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 3.19%, nearly 3000 of the stocks that are trading have fallen 1000.

The key is that the A share market is too crowded. There are too many pitfalls and too many kinds of bad blood sucking. Take the recent media focus on the frequent reduction of important shareholders, "precise" reduction, "clearance" reduction and deceptive reduction, last year, A shares unexpectedly 1157 major shareholders and executives of Listed Companies in a crazy reduction, reducing the total market value of more than 350 billion yuan, far exceeding the 160 billion yuan IPO financing amount.

By the end of February 15th, it was only a month and a half (the actual transaction time was shorter). This year, the A stock market has carried out 278 holdings of 108 major shareholders, with a total market value of 32 billion yuan. According to the relevant database company estimates, with the market valuation center downward, fixed increase restrictions on sale shares centralized lifting of the ban, the largest shareholder of Listed Companies in 2017 the willingness to reduce the unprecedented strong, is expected to reach 3 trillion market value!

Liu Shiyu, chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, said that it will be resolved within 2-3 years. IPO Barrier lake problem, 300 new shares in a year has become the norm. I have repeatedly stressed that the fear is not 25% of IPO, but 75% of the reduction in the back. The longer the tail is, the longer it is, the less it can be seen. Moreover, the share price goes up and down, and it also needs to be reduced, because they are totally profitable and have no profits.

Is there a reduction of HK $100 billion in Hong Kong stock market in this year? No! Let me give you an example. Why did the Zhejiang stock listed in Hongkong issue a lower price? (2.58 yuan), and it should also crush its head to the A share market. That is because the stock market of large shareholders can never cash in ten years and eight years after listing in Hongkong.

Another hot spot of market focus is another hot spot, refinancing (including rights issue, fixed increase, etc.), which is called the "stock market" in the Hongkong market. This is the most unpopular. Only those old stocks are constantly offering shares, and finally become the penny stocks that no one wants.

Which is like the A share market, the IPO has just been fixed up and then increased, and the black mouth hired by stakeholders is making up stories, blowing trumpets and carrying sedan chairs. Why did the Hong Kong stock market go so hard since the Spring Festival? Because Liu Shiyu criticized the capital predators for a long time, and repeatedly stressed that "heavy punishment should be imposed on the chaos, strong drugs should be removed, and strict supervision should be strengthened in accordance with the law". And the capital predator of tomorrow's department is caught in Hongkong.

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