Macro Economy: More Policies Are Needed To Stimulate Economic Expansion.

The study of macroeconomics is the basis of strategic research. Only when we have a clear understanding of the macro economy, can we judge the trend of the market and make big asset allocation, because the asset allocation of large categories is based on the macro cycle.

If it is only for local market research, regardless of the whole environment, it is often difficult to distinguish the big direction.

The macroeconomic research is very complicated. It should not only study the global economy, but also conduct in-depth research on China's economy, as well as the political and economic policies of other countries.

Investing in A shares and making less money is largely due to the fact that many people do not invest in deep research.

I remember a famous investment guru once said, "no research on basic investment is like driving with your eyes closed."

Only investing on the basis of thorough research is a basis for every investment decision. Every sum you earn must know how to make money.

If you earn a lot of money in a confused way, it is not research but luck. Then you will lose it sooner or later, so we must pay great attention to macroeconomic research.

Macroeconomic research is not only about economic aspects, but also for macro policies. Especially in China, policies have a huge impact on the economy.

Since the emergence of Keynes doctrine, the government has intervened more and more in the economy.

Such intervention is very effective when the economy is in crisis. However, under the normal operation of the economy, it may also affect the efficiency of the operation of the market economy and the inequity of resource allocation.

Different economists have different views on the government's intervention in the economy.

At present, most of the government pursues Keynes doctrine, that is, the government policy should be countercyclical, so as to mediate the economy.

For example, when the economy is overheating, the central bank will tighten monetary policy and tighten monetary policy. It will adjust the economy by cooling up the three major monetary instruments such as raising the deposit reserve ratio, raising the basic interest rate and opening market operations.

In the economic downturn, the central bank will also stimulate the economic recovery through monetary policy, such as lowering interest rates, lowering the deposit reserve ratio and opening market operations to release liquidity to the market.

This is monetary policy mediation.

Freedman believes that all economic phenomena are

。

So Freedman emphasized the impact of monetary policy on the economy, but sometimes the fiscal policy had greater impact on the economy, and monetary policy could not play its full role.

Especially in times of economic downturn, it is not always possible to stimulate the economy by loosening money and stimulating loans.

When the economy is overheating, monetary policy is relatively easy to play.

For example, a horse can pull a cart through a halter, but it's hard to reverse it by reins.

Therefore, monetary policy is more effective in controlling inflation, but monetary policy has little effect on deflation.

Here is also an explanation of what inflation is and what deflation is.

Inflation is inflation. It refers to the phenomenon that prices are generally rising.

Generally speaking, CPI below 3% is benign inflation. Benign inflation is beneficial to economic growth and beneficial to the rise of the stock market.

But over 3% of inflation is hyper inflation, which may lead to distortions in resource allocation and asset bubbles, which will also impede economic growth.

The central bank's monetary policy will try to keep CPI at a moderate level and avoid plunged into hyperinflation.

In the field of investment, Buffett is called the stock god by investors all over the world. He is the only one who has entered the world's top 100 richest by investing in stocks.

Among the top one hundred rich people in the world, 99 are industrial companies, and only Buffett is investing in stocks.

Buffett once wrote in snowball, "life is like a snowball, and the most important thing is to find wet snow and long hillside".

That is to say, first of all, we should have wet snow, a better investment market, and another "long slope", that is to say, we need to have a big business cycle.

When the economy is rising, your

They often get huge rewards.

In the past fifty-two years, Buffett's Berkhire Hathaway Inc has pformed from a bankrupt textile mill to the largest investment company in the world.

Net assets have increased nearly ten thousand times over the past fifty-two years, and the share price has changed from less than 20 dollars a share fifty-two years ago to a recent 250 thousand US dollar share, which can be said to be astonishing.

First of all, Buffett's miracle is related to his vision. He has indeed chosen many growth companies, which have been held for decades and become big companies from small companies.

On the other hand, in the past fifty-two years, the United States in a rapidly developing economic cycle can also be said to be a long hillside.

If Buffett invested in the Japanese stock market, it would be very difficult for him to create this miracle.

In fact, Buffett's annual investment income is not high, the annual yield is 19%, but the compound interest growth is very terrible.

So after fifty-two years of compounding 19%, Buffett's company has changed to more than ten thousand times the current rate.

Buffett's investment is really to study the US economy, the world economy and the investment companies.

So we learn from Buffett to learn his research methods and learn his investment vision.

It is better to retire and net.

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It can be seen that in the past decades, the United States is indeed an economic bull and a bull in the stock market.

Japan's economy is the twenty year of recession.

In the past two or thirty years, China's economy has become a manufacturing factory in the world through the reform and opening up and joining the WTO. The economic growth rate is also very high, but the stock market trend is not satisfactory.

Basically, the market has been oscillating between two thousand and three thousand in the past ten years, although two times in 07 and 15 years.

The disconnect between China's economy and stock market is quite serious.

Nevertheless, we still need to study the Chinese economy well, because in the long run, there is a positive correlation between the economy and the stock market.

As long as it is a rising economy, its stock market will become stronger sooner or later.

Some people compare the relationship between economy and stock market to the relationship between a dog walking dog and a dog.

A person walks a dog, walks a dog to walk forward, the dog also can walk forward, but sometimes dog falls behind, sometimes runs to the front.

But in any case, when the dog walks home, the dog walks home, but the difference may be that the man has walked a kilometer and the dog has gone five kilometers.

So the economic trend is relatively stable, and the stock market volatility is relatively large.

There is a positive correlation between China's economy and stock market, but the relationship is not so high.

For example, it may be that the rope that walks the dog in the United States may be two meters, while the Chinese dog walking rope is twenty meters.

Buffett's teacher, Graham, once said a famous saying, "the stock market is a voting machine in the short run, and a weighing machine for a long time".

That is to say, in the short term, there are many factors that affect the stock market. In fact, it is a voting machine. We can see how we vote, how the game is between the bull and the bear, and the stock price fluctuates.

But in the long run, the stock market is a weighing machine, that is, the long-term performance of the stock market is related to the economic aspect, and the performance of the stock price is positively related to the profits of the listed companies.

So the relationship between the economy and stock market is positively related in the long run. In the short term, it may be relatively large.

We return to

The pricing model.

All the basic principles of financial asset pricing are the same, that is, the cash flow that this financial asset will bring to you in the future will be discounted through a certain discount rate and then discounted to the present value, which will add the present value of the income for many years to come. That is his reasonable value now.

All financial assets can be calculated using this formula.

The difficulty lies in two points. The first point is that there is great uncertainty in the cash flow brought about by assets in the future.

On the other hand, it is also a prediction of the discount rate.

Therefore, there will be certain deviations in pricing.

The simplest financial asset is the bond, because the future cash flow of the bond is determined, that is, the interest income from bonds to investors every year.

For example, there is a certain interest rate every year, and the interest rate is ten years after maturity. The current value of the bond is the annual cash flow in the next ten years divided by the discount rate, (n) of the 1+r.

The uncertainty lies in the expected rate of return R, which affects the price of the bond.

The pricing of stocks is more complicated, because the proceeds of stocks are future dividends, which can be converted to the present through a certain discount rate, which is related to the company's future earnings and dividend policies.

At the same time, it is also related to changes in the economic cycle.

The discount rate is also estimated. It reflects the rate of return on investors' demand for the future.

The simplest stock pricing is the future dividend rate is certain, the profit growth rate is also certain, so that we can use a relatively simple formula to calculate.

To analyze the economy, first of all, we should pay attention to GDP. GDP's accounting can be made by expenditure or production.

The expenditure law is the three most familiar carriages, consumption, investment and export.

The expenditure method divides the industry into the upper and middle reaches, and adds up all aspects of output value.

Accounting for GDP is the foundation of macro research.

GDP is gross domestic product (GDP), which refers to the total output of all production and labor services within a country.

Corresponding to GDP is GNP, GNP is gross national product, which refers to the sum of production and labor created by the people of a country in the world, including the value created by some people abroad.

Like the United States, there are a large number of multinational companies and a large number of Americans earn money all over the world, so GNP is larger than GDP in the US.

China has imported large quantities of foreign capital, and many multinational companies produce and sell in China, so China's GDP is generally larger than GNP.

It is worth noting that GDP is an incremental concept rather than a stock, because GDP is the rate of economic growth, reflecting the growth rate of GDP.

We can not just look at the absolute value, but depends on the growth rate compared with the past, but also depends on the economic structure.

For example, China's GDP has increased by more than 8% in the past years.

The US growth rate is only 2%, but the profit margin of US companies is much better than ours.

Because GDP is a concept of income, not a concept of profit.

Although China's GDP is high, most of them are growing by steel and cement heap up, while the economic growth of the United States is relatively high, and the profit growth is relatively fast.

So we can not simply compare who GDP is high, whose economic growth is good.

GDP is only an indicator of economic growth.

Our GDP has been investment driven for a long time, and investment has contributed more than 50% to GDP.

In recent years, the growth of GDP investment has slowed down, and the contribution of consumption to GDP has begun to rise.

Investment is divided into several parts, including general government investment in infrastructure, real estate investment and investment in general industrial enterprises.

In the economic downturn, private investment will decline, and the government may make up for private investment through government investment.

The pulling effect of investment on economic growth is immediate.

In the 09 year, in response to the global financial crisis, the government launched a four trillion investment plan, which is actually driven by investment.

After four trillion of the investment plan came out, almost all of our economic indicators are V reversals. We can see that the pulling effect of investment on the economy is immediate.

But investment will also lead to some problems, such as overcapacity, overheating, high inflation and so on, which will also have a negative effect.

But in the economic downturn, the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth is more direct, especially for a country with high degree of industrialization and more investment in economic growth. The effect of investment is more obvious than that of monetary policy.

China's modern industrialization is basically completed, and the growth rate of industrial production basically determines the trend of the economy.

We see that the trend of industrial growth is almost the same as that of the economy.

We see that industrial growth mainly depends on two indicators, one is the industrial added value, which is the data released every month, and the other is power generation.

As long as the industry starts to use electricity, the generation capacity is an objective indicator, and it is also published every month.

The trend of industrial added value is relatively smooth, and the trend of power generation is relatively large.

Industrial added value and electricity generation are lagging indicators. Generally speaking, economic data of industrial added value and generating capacity of last month are published around nine of each month.

In order to predict the economy ahead of time, we must find some leading indicators of the economy.

One of the leading indicators is PMI, which is the purchasing managers' index.

There are two PMI in China, one is PMI, which is released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing. It is a monthly survey data for some purchasing managers. The PMI is mainly a reflection of the growth rate of large and medium-sized enterprises in China. This is a case study of PMI.

Another is HSBC PMI and HSBC PMI is mainly a sample of SMEs.

PMI's reaction to HSBC is the operation of SMEs.

Through questionnaire survey to purchasing managers, purchasing managers have a prediction of their production status in the next two or three months, so that they can purchase, so PMI is actually an advance indicator.

PMI above 50 indicates that the economy is expanding, indicating that the economic growth will be better in the next two or three months.

PMI is below 50, indicating that the economy is contracting.

So 50 is called the watershed of prosperity and decline.

PMI is an indicator of the ratio of the month to the previous month.

So looking at PMI, one mainly depends on whether he is above 50 or below 50, and the other one depends on how much deviation from 50. The more deviations, the greater the tendency.

At the same time, we should also pay attention to the composition of PMI, for example, which sub item of PMI has changed considerably.

Let's talk about the impact of monetary policy on the economy.

Because China is a country which relies heavily on bank loans and relies on indirect financing, most of its liabilities are bank loans.

So credit growth often determines the growth rate of the economy. We see that the fitting rate of credit growth and industrial growth is particularly high.

The amount of financing for reactive society is mainly two, one is indirect financing by bank loans, the other is direct financing.

Direct financing is the direct financing from enterprises to the market, for example, stock financing, and bond financing belongs to direct financing.

Our country is the overwhelming majority of indirect financing, such as bank loans, while the direct financing of these mature markets in the United States has taken the lead.

The future direction of our country's development is to gradually increase the proportion of direct financing and reduce the proportion of indirect financing.

The growth of the total amount of financing is of great decisive significance to the economic side.

The financing volume of the whole society is only a reference in recent years. It is a more comprehensive indicator than the direct index of financing or indirect financing.

We also see that the trend of total financing is closely related to the economic trend.

When the total amount of financing is relatively good, the economic side is also better. On the contrary, when the total amount of financing is relatively poor, the economic trend is relatively poor.

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