The Original Expectation Of "Cotton Prices And Prices Will Fall" May Become A Bubble.

In recent years, the reserve cotton wheel came out of the "volume and price down". From the beginning of the reserve cotton rotation to yesterday, the turnover rate dropped to 70.42%, the average price fell to 14726 yuan / ton, which had a negative impact on the market.

For traders, the purpose of auction reserve cotton is to make trade price difference in the future, and some traders to help other market players to earn some fees.

However, traders feel "pressure mountain" this year.

Since the 6 day of the reserve cotton rotation, the average price fell to 750 yuan / ton as of 16.

On the 16 day, a Hebei trader said, "in the early stage, a total of more than 1100 tons of cotton reserves were auctions, and now the average loss is 390 yuan / ton. The more the early stage is, the more ruthless it is.

I didn't expect that this year, on the contrary, I'm afraid I will lose money this year. "

It is understood that many traders feel that some time ago, "storage is a bit too fierce".

A textile enterprise owner said that cotton price is not the most critical factor, and the most important thing is to stabilize cotton prices.

Nowadays, the paction price of reserve cotton is lower, and for textile enterprises, the short-term disadvantages outweigh the advantages.

On the 16 day, a Shandong textile enterprise owner said, "we dare not take a lot of photos, worried that the price will be down again tomorrow if we just take a high price today."

Now the average price of cotton reserves is lower, and textile mills can only wait and see.

In the long run, cotton prices go down to the domestic level.

The advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

At present, the price of internal and external yarn is obviously more upside down. As of 16 days, the price difference between conventional India yarn and domestic yarn at Qingdao port and Zhangjiagang port is 1200 yuan / ton, and the competitiveness of domestic yarn is increasing.

If domestic cotton prices continue to fall, the advantage of domestic yarn price will be significantly improved.

Therefore, many textile enterprises say that the price of cotton reserves is low, and everyone is very welcome.

Cotton farmers: cotton prices rise, I will grow.

Some cotton farmers in the the Yellow River valley are already preparing for the broadcast. It is understood that this year's cotton farmers' enthusiasm is slightly higher than that of last year, but there are still some cotton farmers waiting to see.

"Only care about price. If seed cotton is high, it must be planted."

A large cotton grower said that the current cotton prices will affect the overall market situation of the domestic market, so cotton farmers' attention to cotton reserves is also inevitable.

Many cotton growers said: "if the average price of cotton reserves falls below 15000 yuan / ton, it may bring some negative effects on the spring sowing this year, and the growth of cotton planting area may become a bubble."

Most of us believe that to see the essence through the phenomenon, the recent decline in cotton does not affect the overall situation. The upward trend of cotton prices is a trend.

The reasons are as follows:

First, the affordability of textile enterprises.

Chinese textile has gradually gone out of the mire since 2016 and has a small profit.

Since the Spring Festival of 2017, most spinning enterprises have been running at full capacity and production is full of vitality.

Because of the cost factor, the price of the outer yarn is upside down by 900-1200 yuan / ton, and the competitiveness of the domestic yarn is improved. Therefore, it has a certain foundation for the digestion of high cotton prices.

Two, the domestic cotton price is at a low level.

It is understood that although the current 16000 yuan / ton cotton price than the 2015/16 price rose nearly 3000 yuan / ton, but this year's target price (18600 yuan / ton) still has a distance.

In particular, the domestic cotton planting area has been reduced. Because of low income, many cotton farmers have abandoned their seeds. Only by raising the price of seed cotton can cotton farmers continue to grow cotton.

Three, the shortage of high-quality cotton is a serious problem.

The author exchanges with some manufacturers. It is generally felt that this year there is a small quantity of high-quality cotton. Especially the reserve cotton is 2011-2013 years old, and there is not much problem in producing 40S and below.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.