A Shares Will Be Tested In The Two Quarter, "Stability" Is The First Element.

Farewell to the first quarter of a slight rise in the concussion, A shares will be tested in the two quarter.

In the first quarter of last year, the A share market has maintained a steady and slow rise, and the stock index has risen by 3.83% to 1% per month.

Though limited in scope, it basically maintained the usual practice of offensive in spring.

Entering the two quarter, the market is still good, mainly comes down to the following four points:

First, investors run and reopen their accounts.

Statistics show that after the Spring Festival, the number of new investors increased by six times a week.

Especially during the week from March 13th to March 17th, the number of new investors increased to 558 thousand and 200.

Since the stock index peaked in June 2015, there are only more than 550 thousand people in the week from August 22, 2016 to August 26th. This is the second time.

Since the number of people who opened more than 550 thousand people in that week in August last year, the Shanghai stock index has been running the best round in the second half of the year after the short-term pullback, rising from 2969.13 to 3301.21, and the band up more than 11%.

Two, the rebound in economic data has supported the fundamentals of the stock market.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in March 27th, the total profit of industrial enterprises in 1~2 months increased by 31.5% compared with the same period last year. The main business income increased by 13.7% year-on-year, achieving double growth in revenues and profits, and the profit growth rate was significantly accelerated.

From the data point of view, the improvement of the fundamentals of manufacturing industry is obvious, which is also a great benefit to the stock market.

Three, A shares were included in the two quarter.

There is a great increase in probability.

According to the recent Ming Sheng company's new plan, the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong and Shenzhen Hong Kong links will be used as the framework basis. The number of A shares included in the index will be reduced from 448 originally planned to 169. The weight of A shares in the MSCI China Index and the MSCI Global Emerging market index will be reduced from 3.7% and 1% to 1.7% and 0.5% respectively.

Once the new scheme is passed, A shares will become a part of the MSCI index and attract the global fund allocation boom.

Although the initial allocation of funds will not be too much, but once the opening door is opened, it will also be possible to bring more foreign capital into the market in the long run.

Four, the number of restricted shares will be reduced.

In the two quarter, the number of restricted shares of A shares was at the lowest level in the whole year. According to relevant statistics, in addition to maintaining a high level of 26 billion 769 million 400 thousand shares in April, the number of restricted shares in May and June dropped sharply, with only 116 and 8 billion 700 million shares, the lowest in 2017 2017.

The reduction of restrictions on sale of shares is conducive to reducing the sell-off of the stock market, which is a great benefit from the supply side of chips.

From past

The trend of the two quarter is obviously weak in the whole year. The main reason is that the probability of rising in the first quarter has accumulated a certain profit margin. At the same time, there are 3 small holidays in the two quarter, namely Qingming, the May 1 and the Dragon Boat Festival. There is a certain pressure on the market funds before and after the long holidays. Some of the funds will also be able to cash in on profits and avoid the uncertain factors during the long holidays.

In addition to several bull markets in 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2015, as well as a concussion after the continuous decline in 2014, the two quarter tends to fall or even take 3 months.

This situation often occurs in the market trend is not very strong, and before it has experienced a wave of rise, the two quarter is easy to form a turning point downward.

The most typical example is the 2010~2012 quarter of three consecutive years of two quarter trend.

They all showed a decline, with the largest decline in 2011. The two quarter has been black for 3 consecutive months, with a total decline of 22.85%. In 2011 and 2012, it also fell by 5.67% and 1.65% respectively, although the decrease was not large, but the overall weakness was obvious.

This year's situation is somewhat similar to that of the previous year, especially in 2010 and 2011. It also experienced a series of months of shock rebound, approaching the upper level pressure zone, while the capital side also had the background of monetary policy tightening.

Therefore, for the two quarter A share trend, the majority of investors still need to stay more cautious, especially after continuous high rises. They should not be overly optimistic. For those stocks that have risen, they should pay attention to profits and control positions.

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