In The New Season, The Area And Yield Of Cotton Are Expected To Increase Considerably.

At present, the main cotton producing areas in China are planting a peak period, and farmers in the producing areas are actively investing in the spring ploughing production.

The information about cotton planting area, expected output and new cotton production situation in the new season has become the focus of market attention. Relevant market investment institutions and other related operations have been carried out on cotton futures forward contracts, and spot traders have made adjustments to raw materials inventory.

What will be the development prospect of the new cotton market in the new century?

Cheng Jie, deputy director of China cotton storage information center, held in April 27th at the Eighth China Cotton (yarn) futures forum held in Hangzhou, said that from the current understanding of the domestic and foreign cotton market, the new cotton growing area in the new season is picking up, and the fastest rise in 2018 will be 530 million to 540 million mu. The speed of the recovery of the global cotton planting area will exceed the expectation.

From the results of the survey of cotton planting intentions in the domestic producing areas, the new cotton planting area in the new season is 46 million 30 thousand mu, an increase of about 2000000 Mu compared with the same period, an increase of 5%.

"From the past few years, the change of cotton planting area in the whole country and in Xinjiang and the mainland has seen a slight increase in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the mainland, with a larger increase in the northwest area compared to the previous year, followed by the the Yellow River River Basin and a lower increase in the Yangtze River Basin."

Cheng Jie said that the main cotton producing provinces of Jiangsu and Gansu ranked slightly in this year's changes. Gansu may be slightly higher, and the cotton planting area in Henan is reduced somewhat.

According to Cheng Jie, the global cotton planting area has shown strong cyclical changes in the past 30 years.

From the time when the global cotton area rose from its trough to its peak, the world's lowest cotton area in 1993 was 461 million mu, and it reached 539 million mu in 1995, which took two years in the middle.

In 2002, from the lowest point 462 million mu to 536 million mu in 2004, it is also two years.

From 2010 to 2012, from 453 million acres to 542 million acres is two years.

This reflects a feature that cotton tends to pick up faster.

In 2016, the global cotton planting area was 440 million mu.

Judging from the current situation at home and abroad, the global cotton planting area is picking up this year. With reference to the historical experience of the previous cycles, it is possible that the cotton crop will rebound to 530 million to 540 million mu in 2018, and the speed of the global cotton planting area will increase or exceed our current expectation.

"In the past few years, the whole world

The planting area is basically fluctuating between 440 million and 540 million mu, and may be slightly lower in 2015, but the whole is fluctuating in the horizontal section.

The cotton planting area in China has basically gone down in the past few years.

In 1999, China's cotton planting area was 55 million 880 thousand mu. In this year, the cotton circulation system was reformed in China. In the following years, the cotton planting area of China increased continuously, and the highest recovery in 2008 was about 88000000 mu. After that, the total number of cotton growing areas decreased, and the number of cotton growing areas decreased to 43 million 850 thousand mu in 2016.

Judging from the big trend, the cotton planting area in China is going down.

However, at present, the domestic cotton market is pushing forward the reform of the target price system. What will this policy affect the domestic cotton production? What is the concept compared with the cotton circulation system reform in 1999, which needs our attention.

Cheng Jie said that Xinjiang cotton planting area basically fluctuated in the range of 24 million to 34 million mu, the bottom was constantly rising, and the cotton planting area in the mainland returned to 15 million mu from the highest about 60000000 mu. The gap is relatively large, which is also the reason why the cotton planting area has been decreasing in the past few years in China.

In the middle of April, the futures Daily reporter carried out a market research on crop cultivation in the main cotton producing areas of Hubei, Hebei, Shandong and Henan.

The probability of a sharp rise is very low.

First, the relevant agencies in the mainland for cotton farmers and cotton prices basically did not introduce a large subsidy and support policies, cotton farmers income is not very stable, local farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton can not be improved.

The two is the serious loss of the rural labor force in the rural areas of China.

Three, cotton cultivation and harvesting in Xinjiang's main cotton producing areas have basically realized mechanized operation, and cotton has been basically operated.

The cotton production mechanization degree in the mainland is relatively low, and the output and quality of cotton increase little, and the production cost is relatively high.

Four, farmers have higher income from planting other crops, and the price of cotton planting is not high.

Five, the cotton industry in the mainland is pferring to Xinjiang and Southeast Asia on a large scale. The industrial chain can not be improved and linked, and the prospects for industrial development are dim.

Based on the information analysis of planting area and expected yield in the global and domestic cotton market, market participants believe that there is a difference between the global and domestic cotton planting and production expectations. The industry and the large spot investors should fully grasp the future market production and demand situation, and make targeted analysis.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.