Is China'S Securities Market Following The Way Of Operation?

The painful situation of "seven losses, two wins and one win" in China's stock market makes us deeply realize that the operation mode of "going with the stream" in China's stock market is often "a narrow escape from death", while the application of reverse thinking can often win the surface by surprise. This phenomenon with "Chinese characteristics" makes most models that are based on overseas advanced investment principles fail in application. When technical analysis and various index models fail again and again, it may be a good choice to reverse thinking based on market sentiment, account opening or agency prediction.

First, positive thinking is often "a narrow escape from death" in China's stock market. Most stock investors adopt the technology analysis method and spend a lot of energy to study short-term operation skills. Once the operation fails, we think that we are not enough. We also need to pay tuition fees and study hard. This is the traditional thinking of retail investors in China's stock market.

It is worth noting that China's stock market is a new stock market. It is only in less than 20 years. In this market, the retail investors who can really earn money can be said to be rare. According to a report released by the market value management research center of China's listed companies 2, from May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2009, the total market capitalization of 1386 listed companies of A shares reached 9 trillion and 440 billion yuan, and the apportionment of 125 million shareholders accounts for 75 thousand and 500 yuan.

In addition, at the end of each year, major securities companies will share the proportion of losses and profits of investors throughout the year. According to the data, when the bear market plummeted in 2008, the number of shareholders who lost more than 75% reached 20%, and only about 5% of the real money was earned. Some people say that this is because the collapse of the market in 2008 did not represent the true level. However, in 2009, the stock market climbed all the way. At the end of the year, only about 30% of the people who made money were still earning money.

From these cold data, we can see the bitterness and tears of Chinese shareholders. It can be said that most of the stockholders who enter the stock market are the middle class in China, because if they do not have enough capital, they will not enter the market seriously. These people are also the elite in all walks of life, but few can earn money. It is quite difficult to use positive thinking to fry shares. In addition, some investors' long term investments are hard to come into effect in China's stock market, though many "stock gods" in the world admire this mode of operation.

Because of the different national conditions, the long term investment strategies of different countries should have different changes. For example, the Japanese economy began to experience "lost 20 years" in 90 years. During this year, the stock market also fell all the way, though there were various forms of rebounding, but still maintained a downward trend. If you still have a long term "buy and hold" long term strategy, then the loss will not only be your stock fund, but also 20 years of fancy years.

Similarly, China's national conditions are different from those of the United States. The United States is a developed country. After hundreds of years of development, its economic system has already matured, so there are some enterprises with good operation mechanism and long profit and growth. For example, Coca-Cola and Washington Post can make people see their future development prospects at a glance. China is still in the developing stage, and the trend of policy and the external environment are still in a state of inertia, which makes it impossible for people to judge the future direction of development.

More importantly, the United States is no unique hegemonic country in the world. Whenever disaster occurs, it can easily spanfer its own crisis to other countries in the world, so as to achieve a strong recovery of its economy. Other countries are very lucky to cope with their economic difficulties on the one hand, and on the other hand they have to face the crisis that the United States has passed over. Therefore, the stock market in the United States can create a new high every year. Buffett and other stock gods have benefited greatly, but the stock market in Japan, China and other countries has not been able to perform well.

Two, the revelation of reverse thinking to the operation of stock market, many things are positive thinking, it is very difficult to have the result. Instead of this, it is better to think about it in turn, and perhaps achieve the unexpected result. There are many problems in the world, so is stock market investment. For example, according to conventional logic, the major brokerage research institutions have the top research team and strong financial strength and sophisticated strategy model, and their research results should be more authoritative than the perceptual knowledge of small shareholders. In fact, from the historical point of view, the accuracy of the strategic report of the broker is very low no matter whether it is in the large spot prediction or in the stock recommendation.

Take the 2009 annual strategy report released by 10 mainstream brokers at the beginning of the year as an example. For the broader market, the most optimistic one sees only 2400 Shanghai Composite Index. At that time, the Shanghai composite index was in the vicinity of 1800, but 80% of the brokerages were pessimistic. Generally, the Shanghai stock index in 2009 was limited to 1600 or below. What is surprising is that in 2009, the market changed its trend from 1600 to 3400. The "naked swimming" phenomenon of securities firms has been a long-standing phenomenon.

At the end of 2006, most of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2007 was far below 3500 points, and the actual peak reached 6124 points, which is almost 1 times higher than that of most brokerages. In 2008, the Shanghai composite index was adjusted from 5300 to 1600. None of the securities companies had been judged at the beginning of the year. The collective miscarriage of justice has made the business opportunities awkward. This is a very interesting phenomenon. At the end of each year, when the analysis and prediction of the securities firms are coming out, the trend of the next year is almost the opposite. The accuracy of the strategic report of the securities firms just confirms the contrary theory of the stock market. Some people have dubbed the strategic report of the securities company as a "reverse indicator".

Another example is that when the financial crisis broke out, the stock market and the real estate market were on the decline. Many investors and speculators suffered a lot of losses. In various media, the news of the suicide of the investors and the speculators has been coming, and most of them are in fear. For many people, the financial crisis is undoubtedly a nightmare. This means that the unemployment rate has increased, the company has gone bankrupt and the stock market and the housing market have plummeted.

Many retail investors appeared desperate when the financial crisis broke out. They watched the stock prices falling down and the surrounding environment deteriorating. The surrounding economies were also in recession and decline. So they could not bear the psychological torment and began to cut their meat out. What's more, from then on, we will talk about stock market change, and only wait for the stock market to rise again before we dare to enter the stock market again, because their operation has always been "buying up but not buying down".

Generally speaking, when a crisis breaks out, equity market There will often be a quick fall and then go to the bottom to find the lowest point, and this lowest point will probably be the pit of the panic trap. When such a situation is coming, it is a nightmare for many retail investors. Is it a disaster or an opportunity for investors with reverse thinking?

If we regard the stock market as an old man, then the old man is not so rational. He will make all kinds of mistakes. For example, in the rising cycle, it may eventually become a crazy rise, which is seriously beyond the intrinsic value of the stock, and there will also be irrational declines when it falls. At a minimum, the share price is much lower than its intrinsic value.

Therefore, "Mr. market" always makes mistakes, which brings us opportunities rather than disasters. It was in the wake of the financial crisis that stock prices continued to fall, which gave us the opportunity to find good stocks. In the past, we chose a good company, and when we tried to buy it, we often found that because of the popularity of retail investors, they were in high position. The outbreak of the crisis has led to the abandonment of these shares, and even the share price has been far from their own value. It has been abandoned in the streets like gold, but no one has found it. Buffett once said, "when you drop gold in the sky, you must prepare the bucket to pick it up." From this point of view, people should be excited rather than decadent when they are given a good buy for investors to reverse their thinking.

In addition, there are many research theories about macroeconomics, policy and stock market in China, but they can simply describe the relationship between them, and the study of three rules is very rare. Through research, we find that when the economy is overheating and the market is Carnival and the policy begins to tighten, we must operate cautiously, and we should exit at the right time. When the economy is cold and the market is low, and when the policy starts to "save the market", we should arrange the bargain and enter in batches.

Three, the application of reverse thinking in the stock market explores how to apply reverse thinking to the buying and selling points of the stock market. This is what many investors are concerned about, and is also the focus of time application. When the bear market came, it was the worst time for retail investors to lose money. Many people were cutting their meat with their sharp knives in their own capital accounts. A lot of people's funds have been drastically shrinking, and some retail households have even lost more than 90% of their losses.

When the bear market comes, we think about the reverse. Stock speculation What does it mean to us? If we really understand the way of reverse thinking, then bear market is a good opportunity for us to enter the market again and increase the investors' capital again. Of course, on the way down the bear market, it is best not to enter the market too early. An old saying goes like this: "do not use your hands to grasp the flying knife." It means that although the flying knife is falling down, it is likely that it will hurt itself because the blade is still destructive. The same is true on the way down. We can buy as many days as we can, because there is enough time in the bear market for us to sow.

If we can identify the bottom characteristics of bear market, we will get better results. According to past experience, we can summarize these characteristics as follows:

1. most share price is the last round of the bull market's highest price of 2-3 fold; 2. volume is the highest peak 20% (Shanghai Stock generally 400-500 billion for land); 3. most of the stock investors after several rounds of hunters, after the fall, the general capital has shrunk 70%, individual shrinkage more than 80%; 4. talking about stocks has become a shameful thing, tea after dinner without mentioning anything about the stock market; 5. individual stock dividends to interest or close to interest 70-80% level.

When bear market appears above several characteristics, we can basically confirm that the bottom is coming, and investors with reverse thinking can run in. In order to intuitively see the buying point of reverse thinking operation, the author summarizes the conditions of buying these points as follows:

1. the stock has fallen sharply, the price has reached 70% of the last bull market. 2., in the Chinese stock market, the stock market has started to appear below 1 yuan, and the share price has fallen below the net assets. 3., the market sentiment is extremely cold, and the stock market has become the negative lesson in life. 4., all kinds of analysts continue to look down, some even think that the stock market will go bankrupt, and will fall to below 1000 points; 5., there will be a depression in the economy, the unemployment rate is increasing, and many small factories and private enterprises will be closed and bankrupt.

If we meet the above points, then the gold buying point of the reverse thinking has arrived. Investors should not hesitate any more. Instead, they should sell stocks and buy stocks and patiently wait for the long-term increment of their funds. The so-called "will buy is an apprentice, will sell the master", the selling point of the stock is more difficult than buying. Many people want their stocks to sell to the highest point of the market, so that they can maximize profits and, at the same time, show their level of excellence. Such people are positive thinking, because people generally have greed mentality, but the consequences of such psychological are terrible, and bring a loss to retail investors.

When we have gained a lot of profits through reverse thinking operation, when the market is at the top or near the top, we no longer have to fight for the "Last Supper". When the stock market is about to reach the top, there are many characteristics that we can observe. For example, in the market, there began to be a sky high price, high volatility in stocks and indexes, and a chaotic situation in the stock market. A lot of first-line and second-line stocks picked up at a high level after a substantial rise. The three line stocks and stagflation stocks began to exert their strength, and ST shares began to perform on the stage. In the market sentiment, a crazy situation began to appear. Everyone in the streets and lanes must talk about stocks. Even the aunt who sold the cabbage knew that buying stocks could make money. The wind direction of the policy changed suddenly, and the government began to constantly prompt risks and so on.

From the various fanatical situations around us, it seems that we can see the gradual arrival of risk. In order to be more intuitive and convenient for future memory, I would like to summarize these characteristics as follows:

One equity market Experienced a sharp rise, there has been a continuous sky high price; the 2. index began to be high and volatile, but the stock market was constantly on the rise. 3., the popularity of the market was becoming more and more crazy, and people around the stock market began to talk about stocks in large numbers. 4., the number of accounts opened by the securities business departments reached a new high, and even the situation of queuing up households opened; 5., the economy was thriving, but the situation was overheated and inflation was serious. 6., the government began to hint at risks, issued various tightening policies, but the effect was not obvious; 7., the speed of issuing new shares was accelerating, and the listing and financing and IPO were frequent.

If there are more than a few cases in the market, it shows that the market is likely to fall after the sharp rise, and the government may feel a bit high on this point and need to pour some cold water to cool the stock market. After all, the trend of the stock market is wavy, and there are ups and downs. The rise and fall is the most normal thing.

In short, in the current situation of the end of technology analysis and the confusion of fundamental analysts, converse thinking is expected to become a highlight of investment ideas and is expected to brighten up a bright light for investors and friends. Because only a small number of people in the stock market can earn money, most people are bound to lose money. Therefore, if we want to make profits, we can only go against the majority of people, learn to buy and sell the reverse thinking.

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