Exports Of Textiles Increased By 2.12% Compared To The Same Period Before May.

In the first half of 2017, the textile market showed a "N" pattern, and the price of cotton was M in the first half of 2017. By June 30th, the price of 3128B in the domestic spot market was 15930 yuan per ton, up 0.69% compared with the 15820 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year.

Specifically, in January, the price of the Spring Festival was basically affected by the annual Spring Festival holiday in China. After February, the profit of textile market was improved.

Subsequently, cotton prices continued to decline as a result of the 16 years in advance.

After the adjustment of cotton market in April, the market was worried about the supply of high quality cotton, and the price rose.

In June, the growth of cotton planting area increased significantly. The cotton market in the new year saw a high atmosphere and the output of cotton reserves dropped sharply.

According to the report released by the US Department of agriculture in June 30th, the sown area of US cotton in 2017 was 12 million 50 thousand acres, an increase of 20% over the same period last year.

According to statistics of India Cotton Association, as cotton yield is better than other crops, cotton growers have been expanded. As of June 23rd, cotton planting area in India reached 37 million 50 thousand mu, an increase of 30% over the same period last year.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system released by the national cotton market monitoring system in China, the actual sowing area of cotton in 2017 was 47 million 573 thousand mu, an increase of 3 million 728 thousand mu compared with the same period, an increase of 8.5%.

Cotton production is expected to be stronger in the new year. In June, ICE cotton fell for 10 consecutive days. Zheng cotton fell close to a 15000 yuan / ton mark, and international cotton prices continued to fall. Cotton prices continued to drop at a low price. At the same time, the source of Xinjiang cotton, which was favored by the domestic market, dropped to 10 thousand tons near the end of 6.

The turnover rate of reserve cotton dropped to about 50%. As of June 30th, the total planned storage capacity of the cotton reserves was 2 million 469 thousand and 400 tons, and the total output from the warehouse was 1 million 694 thousand and 600 tons, with a turnover rate of 68.62%. The average price was 14958 yuan / ton, the price of 3128 yuan was 15775 yuan / ton, the highest price was 16780 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 12810 yuan / ton.

The growth of cotton growing area is obvious, not only to suppress domestic cotton.

To a certain extent, it also determines the pattern of weakening cotton prices in the new year.

The first half of the downstream cotton yarn market was narrowed by the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices, and the impact of textile exports improved. The overall operation was good. However, the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices began to widen in June, and it is expected that the supporting role of cotton prices in the second half of the year will be weak.

In the domestic market, the current situation of cotton production less than consumption has not changed. Cotton quota is still limited. Whether cotton can be used to meet domestic cotton consumption remains to be observed. At the same time, domestic cotton is still in the out of stock stage of supply side reform, and cotton is unlikely to go down substantially.

On the whole, the cotton planting area has been greatly improved, and the cotton market is hard to get rid of the negative shadow in the second half of the year. It is expected that the cotton will run steadily in the second half of the year, and the price will be running between 15500-16000 yuan / ton.

Among the 14 commodities monitored by the chemical fiber board, 13 products were over 10% over the same period last year, and the boom of the spandex industry continued to increase. Since August last year, the market has bottomed out and showed a unilateral upward trend. Up to June 30th, the price was 39100 yuan / ton, up 30.55% over the same period last year.

Under the increasingly stringent environmental protection and supply side reform, the expansion of the industry is better than expected. It is understood that the total capacity of spandex industry is around 500 thousand tons, and the new capacity is about 50 thousand tons this year.

The new round of reshuffle of the spandex industry will greatly increase the concentration of the industry after eliminating a number of backward production capacity.

Moreover, the rising cost of raw materials and low market inventories have boosted the price of spandex, which is expected to be dominated by high consolidation in the near future.

With the coming of the peak season in September, the price increase of spandex will be a big probability event.

In the first half of 2017, the strong market in the fourth quarter of PTA2016 lasted only until the Lantern Festival, and reached the highest point of 5759.60 yuan / ton in half year until February 14th.

Production and marketing follow-up is unfavorable, cost pressure, and PTA fundamentals have not improved much, PTA prices fell rapidly in May 10th, 4695.45 yuan / ton, or 18.48%.

After that, PTA's own equipment overhaul and cost PX upwards and other favorable factors support rebounded, but it was once again underestimated by the crude oil gains and losses. As of June 30th, 4828.18 yuan / ton, down 8.74% from the beginning of the year, up 0.9% over the same period last year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, thinks that PTA's performance in the first half of the year is acceptable, especially in the two quarter of the centralized maintenance of the device, and PTA stocks continue to go down to less than 1 million 400 thousand tons.

Low inventory and low start-up capacity will not be too bad in the early three quarter, but in the market outlook, the old plant will return to the end of the three quarter, and the pressure on the fundamentals will increase at the end of the three quarter.

On the cost side, many sets of installations were postponed in the Asian market in 2017, and there were several installations planned for overhaul in the three quarter.

Downstream, in 7 and August, the traditional weaving will enter the off-season, and the construction will gradually go down to the golden nine silver ten will be resumed. But at present, the weaving inventory level is not high, the polyester stock is low, and the price is still supported.

On the whole, the PTA market coexists with the long and short game, the market first rebounded and then dropped, the price range was around 4700-5200 yuan / ton.

In 2017 1-5, the total export volume of textiles and clothing was 99 billion 880 million US dollars, an increase of 2.12% over the same period last year, of which the total export volume of textiles was 43 billion 485 million US dollars, up 2.35% from the same period last year.

The total export volume was $56 billion 395 million, up 1.94% over the same period last year.

In terms of domestic demand, in 2017 1-5, retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles were 594 billion 500 million yuan, up 7.2% over the same period last year.

In addition, in June 2017, the supply and demand index (BCI) of the commodity supply chain (-0.08) rose by 0.07%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy in the month and the smooth operation of the economy.

Textile industry analyst Xia Ting believes that in the first half of 2017, the textile market experienced a roller coaster market. Currently, the domestic supply side reform of environmental protection and limited production policy has great impact on textile, especially the chemical fiber board, such as viscose, spandex, polyester and other industries are expected to continue to improve.

At the same time, the export data of textile industry is still strong, and the continuous improvement has benefited from the factors such as the pickup of external demand and the depreciation of the RMB. Especially in the context of "one belt and one road", textile enterprises expand their exports and improve the industrial chain, and go global layout. But for the prediction of the export situation in the second half of the year, we should be more cautious. The overall situation of Global trade has not improved significantly. At the same time, the labor force, raw materials and environmental costs of our country will increase, which will reduce the price competitive advantage of China's export products.

Overall, it is expected that textile market shocks will be adjusted in the second half of the year. There will be a slight rebound in 9 or October. The highest point will be around 940 in October, and the lowest point will be around 870 in December.

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