Will Lining'S Revenue Continue To Grow In The Next Few Years, Or Even Higher Than That Of The Same Industry?

This is still a blooming flower? What is the status quo of Lining's operation?

Lining movement

1. The financial indicators that Lining should focus on in the current development stage.

1) business income growth (higher than GDP, preferably higher than the same industry); 2) gross margin (stable or steady rise); 3) same store sales growth (from distribution costs to business income).

Sports in China in 2008

The Chinese sporting goods companies have no experience in retail or brand operation before the boom of the industry, which is often a wholesaler, with a small retailer with the same lack of experience, which is in sharp contrast to the successful retail giants in the developed countries.

China's retailers based on wholesale sales mainly focus on opening up shop to drive growth, rather than establishing effective marketing platforms and retail business models and unique and rich brands.

These latecomers are known for their rapid expansion, in brand logo, storefront decoration,

Promotion and all aspects of the industry blindly imitate industry leaders, which enables some followers to catch up with the economy and develop rapidly on the basis of loose capital market.

Of course, there was a large market gap in China at that time, so that they could open up new stores.

At that time, consumers had limited purchasing power to expensive high-end brand products, and at the same time, there were not enough choices for low-priced products. Therefore, cheap products that lacked innovative functions and unique designs still received good sales.

Sports goods in China

The development reached its peak in the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, but after that it began to face various challenges caused by the increasingly fierce competition, including the excessive expansion of marketing channels, excessive inventory of sales channels, and rising costs.

And, because of China's majority

The wholesale operation of enterprises, including Li Ning Co, has led to continuous accumulation of these conditions.

At the same time, with the improvement of consumers' taste and the demand for sports function, the old business mode has been unable to operate effectively.

Consumers not only increase purchasing power, but also diversify their choices. These diversified choices come not only from the saturated sporting goods market, but also from the competitive casual wear.

At that time, Lining was alienated from the consumer because of the operation mechanism. Lining's wholesale mode led to its alienation from the rapidly changing consumption trend, high channel inventory and loss of stores.

After introducing TPG strategic investors in 2012, we developed a channel revival plan and abandoned a single wholesale business mode, because it is difficult to achieve direct communication with consumers through different retail experiences.

From wholesale sales to market-oriented retail business mode, thereby enhancing the efficiency of channel and operation.

Establish a modern retail platform to collect and analyze real-time sales data, so that products and retail teams can capture and predict the trend of market demand.

A unified procurement and classification comprehensive plan to sell appropriate products at appropriate locations.

Changing the supply chain mode to achieve rapid response.

Cycle time is significantly reduced, supporting mass production and delivery, thereby significantly improving inventory efficiency and reducing risk.

Replenishment, centralized logistics, exchange and order return process automation to achieve standardized operation of shops, to maximize the same store sales.

Now Li Ning Co's inventory and channel inventory structure is excellent, new products occupy a high proportion, and the high sales of new channels are all the performance of this retail business strategy adjustment.

After the New York fashion, such as "China Lining" Hooded Hoodie, Tiger Crane shaped Hoodie, enlightened Road 2, etc., the hot products can respond quickly to the terminal consumers' feedback and the rhythm of the distribution can be very timely and excellent.

However, although the adjustment of this retail strategy is of great benefit to the future, it is now burdened with financial indicators.

Look at the table:

In contrast to the financial indicators of the three major domestic brands, the financial indicators of Lining and Anta sports (02020) and are similar. Only the "ratio of distribution expenses" appears very abrupt, which has a direct impact on the operating profit margin.

This index is much larger than that of the same industry, mainly for direct store leasing, decoration and maintenance, personnel costs and logistics costs.

These costs are relatively rigid, but they are relatively fixed.

Only through the continuous growth of revenue, maintaining a stable gross profit margin, and at the same time, the growth of the same store sales will be lowered, so that Lining's profit rate will return to the normal level of the same industry.

This is Lining's current management situation and key.

Two. Lining's current valuation

1) Lining got into a predicament after 08 years. Besides the problems of his own business, it also occurred in the background of the whole domestic sports and clothing industry turning from a boom to a downtrend.

Now, Lining's dilemma is not only improving his own business strategy, operating efficiency and financial structure, but also with domestic sports apparel.

Warming up, the background of consumption upgrading.

With the recovery of the dilemma, with the revival of the industry, Lining himself has been expanding as a result of the pformation of his operating ability, expanding his market share, increasing his operating income and improving his profit index. In this cycle, he can be regarded as a growth stock.

It is foreseeable that in the next few years, Lining's revenue will continue to grow. Meanwhile, the operating profit margin index will also be constantly restored to the same level, even higher than that of the same industry.

In view of the above factors, Lining's current valuation can not be static.

In the 17 year 8 billion 800 million camp, if net profit is calculated according to the normal 10% of the industry, it corresponds to 880 million of net profit.

The closing price of Friday 9.8 was 17 billion 100 million market capitalization and the P / E ratio was 19.4 times.

For a consumer company that is higher than the GDP growth rate and starts a new growth cycle, the valuation is not high.

This is a perspective.

2) another perspective.

Although Lining's stock price has experienced a big increase recently (54.8% to the beginning of this year), but you open Lining's monthly K line chart, Lining is still far from the previous peak, which is still far from the foot of the mountain (the peak of the former is 30 Hong Kong dollars).

Unlike the cyclical stocks or some of the most mature and even sunlit industries of the ceilings, the consumption industry always has a higher wave in every new cycle as inflation and consumption levels rise.

Lining used to be able to get to HK $30. Now, what is the reason why Lining, who has experienced the Phoenix Nirvana and reformed, is more powerful (business capability and brand strength)? Why can't he surpass the past? With the upgrading of consumption and the continuous development of cultural self-confidence, Lining, as the leading brand of domestic sports brand, represents the "Chinese spirit". For the market value of 17 billion, it still belongs to the giant gene and the body size of babies.

3) third perspectives.

The market is not entirely rational, but the market is smart.

A stock in a rising price trend must have a reason for the paction.

First of all, the information in the market is asymmetric. For example, after the New York fashion week, the sales of the same store in some Lining flagship stores increased by more than 130% over the same month, and many people do not have such data.

At the same time, there are many factors such as personal risk preference, capital maturity allocation, opportunity cost and so on.

At present, Lining's revenue has just started to grow, the financial indicators have not been repaired, the profit growth point is still open (such as Lining's children), and good profits are also being delivered (for example, the red double happiness split), and the market's mood for sports apparel industry is not overheated.

It is not necessary to pull out flowers that are in bloom now to irrigate other weeds.

If we have obvious financial, emotional and valuation bubbles, we can combine technology clearing methods such as the 20 day average line callback, which is the only time when the price should be properly applied with certain technical methods (but only limited to some simple indicators such as average, support, resistance, etc.).