Merino Wool Prices Skyrocketing, Unprecedented Impact On Exchange Rate Changes And Trade Wars, The Thirtieth China International Wool Textile Conference Is Hot.

In the 30 year, we did not change our minds.

In September 11th,

The theme of this session is "co building the fate community of wool spinning industry". More than 500 industry representatives from more than 20 countries from all over the world went to the grand gathering to discuss the diversity, diversity and complexity of wool textile industry, so as to jointly promote the sustainable development of wool textile industry.

Gao Yong, Party Secretary of China Textile Industry Federation, Zhou Xiaoyang, deputy director of Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce, Sun Huaibin, vice president of China Federation of textile industry, Wang Wenjun, general manager of China International Investment Corporation, Xie Ming, honorary president of Jiangsu Textile Industry Association, Liu Jiaqiang, vice chairman of China wool textile industry association, deputy director of Nanjing customs and animal and plant supervision department, Ke Jiafa, Nanjing

Yang Xiaoxiong, chairman of the board of directors, Meng Benyi, agricultural counselor of the Australian Embassy in China, Meng Benyi Dilana, director general of the International Wool Textile Organization, David Michel, chairman of the Australian wool organization Union, John Roberts, general manager of the East hemisphere, and heads of customs and business departments, and from Australia,

Guests from Britain, South Africa and other countries attended the meeting.

At present, the world's wool production is declining, and wool products are becoming luxury goods. Under such a macro factor background, China International Wool Textile Conference has a more significant significance. As an International Conference on promoting wool to the whole world, its role is becoming more and more obvious.

In the opening speech, this year, since the uncertainty of Sino US trade frictions and trade environment has increased, the textile industry's export pressure has also increased.

Facing the complicated macroeconomic situation, China's wool textile industry should accelerate the development of the industry into a new stage of quality growth and differentiated competition. The construction of ecological civilization promotes the healthy development of the whole industry to the green and sustainable direction.

In the face of the trend of upgrading the industrial production mode, the textile industry is undergoing a major reshuffle: eliminating backward production methods and setting up a new direction for cleaner production.

We should promote the green pformation of traditional production areas, promote the establishment of an industrial system of green low carbon cycle development, strengthen the support of green technology in an all-round way, and accelerate the construction of industrial structure and mode of production with high technology content, low resource consumption and less environmental pollution.

In the field of new textile materials development, new equipment manufacturing, pollution prevention and control, the industry needs more kinetic energy, breaking through the shackles of development and improving the digitalization and intelligentized technology level of textile equipment, thus becoming an important means for textile industry to improve labor productivity and product quality stability.

On the other hand, the new mode of "Internet + textile" is also.

With the development of science and technology and the advent of the Internet plus era, the future of the textile industry will open up a new pattern.

The thirtieth China International Wool Textile Conference has brought together colleagues from home and abroad to exchange information, analyze the market and research countermeasures, which is of great significance for promoting wool trade and promoting the development of wool textile industry.

"At present, China's textile industry is in the key node of pformation and upgrading, and the output of textiles is large. However, homogenization, brand aging and lack of innovation are the" fuse "for the development of many textile enterprises.

For many years, the price of wool textile materials is high and the cost of imports is increasing.

The profit space is further compressed.

The construction of ecological civilization in China requires enterprises to adhere to the concept of green development, which puts forward higher requirements for the pformation and upgrading of the wool textile industry.

Wang Wenjun said that in the face of the complex and changeable internal and external situation, the wool textile people should be closely linked and take the pformation and upgrading of the external environment as a new opportunity for development. They should take the initiative to adapt and actively adjust, integrate resources with an open mind, jointly carry out R & D, explore and tackle all technical bottlenecks, integrate new economy and new retail, and form a cluster effect.

Zhou Xiaoyang said that Jiangsu is an important wool textile raw material processing base and industrial cluster in China, and the wool textile industry has great strength.

In Jiangsu Province, there are more than 680 large scale wool spinning enterprises. In 2017, the main business output value exceeded 120 billion yuan, and the total profit amounted to more than 7 billion yuan.

Jiangsu is a large province of wool imports. To break through the bottleneck of wool textile raw materials, many wool imported from Australia, New Zealand and other wool producing countries have been imported over the years, accounting for about 70% of the total imports annually.

In 2017, Jiangsu imported more than 1 billion 500 million dollars of wool.

In recent years, Jiangsu has been actively responding to the major adjustment of the state's foreign trade development strategy. It has changed from reopening, importing, importing and exporting, and promoting the coordinated development of import and export.

In 2017, Jiangsu's imports exceeded 220 billion US dollars, ranking the highest in the country.

Jiangsu will continue to conscientiously implement the strategy of expanding the country's opening up, actively guide and encourage enterprises to import advanced technology and equipment and key components, short staple commodities and high-quality consumer goods, and vigorously promote industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading.

Sun Huaibin introduced the impact of Sino US trade friction on the textile industry and how to deal with it.

He said that Sino US trade frictions are in an escalating process, with textiles in the list of counter measures in the US and China.

Sino US trade friction will inevitably arouse our core concern, and the impact of Sino US trade friction on China's textile industry needs to be viewed from 3 aspects. The first aspect should be directly affected. The 200 billion dollar tax increase list involves spinning, weaving, spinning machines, and industrial textiles mainly include nonwoven and cord fabrics. Household textiles mainly include carpets, and the overall impact on exports is limited. This is because the "big head" in the export volume, knitted, woven, and some household textiles is not included in the list, but it has a serious impact on the industrial textiles and household textiles.

The second influence is mainly from cotton. The United States is the most important supplier of cotton in China. Last year, China imported 506 thousand and 300 tons of cotton from the United States, accounting for 44% of the total cotton imports in China. The restriction of cotton will bring about the expansion of the domestic high-grade cotton gap. Meanwhile, the cost of raw materials imported by our country will increase.

The third aspect is that if the Sino US trade friction continues to escalate, it will bring the consequences of order and industrial pfer to our industry.

The influence of these three aspects needs our attention.

When it comes to how to deal with it, sun Huaibin says the key is to do well in his own business and improve his competitiveness.

Five aspects can be chosen: first, we should promote the pformation and upgrading of the industry from the national level to promote the pformation and upgrading of the industry; we must focus on improving the quality and efficiency of the industry; the two is to make new contributions to the upgrading of consumption; the upgrading of consumption is the direction and motive force for upgrading the industry; three, we should take a deep part in the construction of "one belt and one road", because "one belt and one road" is a symbol of history and a symbol of textile, so we have the strength and participation in the construction. Four, we need to accelerate the reform of the cotton system, and at the same time, we should promote the competitiveness of our country's cotton producing market by planting new cotton in Xinjiang. Five, under the background of trade friction, we should carry out folk diplomacy through various ways, and strengthen communication with foreign institutions and enterprises. Among them are

Zhu Yanhua, senior product manager of the cross border financial center of the head office of Communications Bank, conducted a spot analysis of the issue of RMB exchange rate.

He said, "from the internal situation of China, the policy side -- the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB at the recent stage (from labor productivity, net assets of foreign countries, monetary openness and money supply) to four latitudes is currently roughly 6.5~6.7.

If the RMB exchange rate rises by 6.5, management will probably lift all temporary restrictions.

When the RMB exchange rate falls below 6.7, the corresponding policy will gradually tighten.

In terms of technology, the deepest point in the withdrawal of RMB exchange rate this year has been identified in the two quarter. In the three quarter and four quarter, the RMB may fluctuate near the equilibrium exchange rate, that is, 6.65~6.8.

From the external dollar situation, we hope to eliminate trade barriers and tariff barriers.

However, if the tariff barriers in the United States can not be effectively lifted, the cost of labor and raw material costs will increase in the next few years, which will change the balance of economic increments between the private sector and government departments in the United States. In recent years, the negative correlation between the RMB and the US dollar has increased rapidly. The end point of this round of US dollar strong cycle is the starting point of the RMB appreciation channel.

This day may occur in the middle and late 2019. "

Liu Jiaqiang analyzed the operation of 1~7 wool textile industry in 2018.

"1~7 months, the main business income of wool spinning industry has increased, the quality of operation has declined, the growth of product and export structure has changed, and the industry has been seeking the pformation and upgrading of development mode in continuous adjustment.

In 1~7 months, the gross yarn production of enterprises was 189 thousand tons, down 7.24% from the same period last year, down 16.59 percentage points from the previous year, which is in sharp contrast with the trend of continuous growth of wool yarn output in the previous two years. The decline in output of wool fabrics has further expanded, and the cumulative output in 1~7 months has been 240 million meters, down 17.05% from the same period last year.

There are many reasons for the large decline in the output of wool textile products, mainly because of the statistical changes in the Statistics Bureau, as well as the changes in market demand and prices of raw materials and products, and the polarization of wool textile enterprises is also one of the reasons.

In 1~7 months, the wool textile industry was basically stable, production adjusted, domestic market stable and better, and external demand growth slowed down.

In the second half of the year, facing the complex external situation, trade friction increases the uncertainty of the stable development of the industry, the export pressure will increase in the second half of the wool textile industry, but considering the exchange rate factors and the progress of trade friction, the slowdown is expected to be relatively limited.

The base of domestic market consumption growth has been weakened, and it is expected that the growth rate of domestic demand in the second half of the year is more difficult than the current level. "

Will Cox, chairman of the Information Committee of the International Wool Textile Organization and famous wool economics expert, has used unprecedented examples to describe the soaring price of merino wool over the past two years.

He said that the trend of the Merino wool market in the past two years is unprecedented.

In his 26 years of employment, he has never seen such a strong demand meeting such a low yield and supply. The result is a high historical price.

All models of merino wool benefit from the current super cycle, and prices are near the highest level in history. It is an unusual performance at both ends of supply and demand, which has triggered an important factor in the current super cycle of Merino.

Looking forward to the next market trend in 2018, he said that the market is complex and changeable. At present, the low yield and low supply of Australian wool may support the price level of wool in the next 6 months or longer, but the real question is whether the demand can sustain and the danger of falling demand will arise.

He believes that Sino US trade frictions and increasingly tense trade relations between the US and Europe are a risk for the global economic development. Meanwhile, the rise in US dollar interest rates may inhibit US economic growth, weaken consumer confidence and lead to a decline in the retail index. In addition, the price of merino wool has remained high for a long time, and whether there will be resistance factors in the wool textile industry, whether the downstream processing enterprises and garment manufacturers will still be underground as usual.

But it is certain that the low price of hybrid wool may attract manufacturers to develop new products and increase market demand for hybrid wool.

He said that at present, the global wool market is at a very delicate stage, and the supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, especially for Merino wool.

However, a little bit of trouble can cause the wool market to tilt in any direction.

Yang Xiaoxiong's speech on the topic of "building the fate community of wool textile industry" aroused the sympathy of the delegates at the meeting.

In her view, all wool producers have the same industry destiny. Only by mutual respect, mutual trust, mutual exchange, mutual cooperation and win-win cooperation can we boost the sustainable development of the wool textile industry.

Yang Xiaoxiong said: "let more consumers love wool and use wool products, which is the social responsibility of the wool industry practitioners and the Nanjing wool market.

In recent years, the Nanjing wool market has continued to exert itself in the aspects of environmental protection, honesty, opening up the upstream and downstream industry chain, financing and personnel training. "Building a common destiny of wool textile industry" will also become the theme of the market in the coming years. I believe that the future wool textile industry is bound to have an open, innovative, inclusive and mutually beneficial development prospect.

In analyzing the market situation, Yang Xiaoxiong said that Merino's fine hair was soaring all the way this year. With its driving force, the price of cashmere was also rising all the way.

This year, the national wool market is also rising. The quality of fine wool sheep is better than that of one year. The herdsmen raise sheep more standardized, and after careful and unified sorting, the rate of 66S gross cleaning is generally over 50%.

Judging from the fabric market, the sheep shearing market started in July this year. Raw material input is not as good as last year. The quality of wool used on both sides will be lower than in previous years. This year's sporty wool clothing is a new bright spot.

The diversification of fabrics and finished products makes the demand for raw materials more diversified, and special fiber supply is still in short supply. Among them, Ma Haimao, alpacas are in tight supply and sell better.

As a whole, she said, overall, there are no outstanding hot spots in the market after the market this year. We can see clearly that we can re divide the market in innovation.

In terms of raw materials, the price of fine branch is not bearish due to the decrease of drought output in Australia and the shortage of domestic stock.

There is still demand for medium coarse hairs, but 56S is so rough that if there is no new product to stimulate, it is difficult to improve in the next 1~2 years.

Since the beginning of this year, the Nanjing wool market of the China Mao Association's Specialized Committee Wool Secretariat has been continuously promoting the credit authentication work. It has conducted the "2017/18 annual review" for the trustworthy enterprises, and has not found any non honest behaviors, and has added 18 new honest businesses.

The conference site awarded the 2017/2018 China Wool Textile Industry Association raw wool Specialized Committee Nanjing wool market integrity business certificate for new enterprises.

In addition, since the official launch of the O2O e-commerce platform in Nanjing's wool market in 2017, it has been playing a positive role in promoting stable growth of foreign trade and developing dynamic energy conversion through a year's operation.

The Nanjing Commerce Bureau asked the relevant departments of customs, State Taxation, foreign exchange management, credit guarantee, finance and other relevant departments. After reviewing and publicized, the Nanjing Municipal Bureau of Commerce decided that the platform should be the pilot enterprise of foreign trade comprehensive services of the city.

At the meeting, Zhuang Yan, deputy secretary of the Nanjing Municipal Committee of Commerce and trade, awarded the plaque to Yang Xiaoxiong, chairman of the Nanjing wool market.

At the Tenth International Wool high level forum held in the afternoon, the participants discussed the exchange rate, brand, environmental protection, entry-exit inspection and quarantine issues, which were closely watched by the enterprises, from the policy and market level, and discussed face-to-face with the business representatives.