4 Trillion And 620 Billion Yuan! China'S Foreign Trade Volume Reached A New High In 2018.

4 trillion and 620 billion dollars!

In January 14th, according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China's trade surplus in 2018 amounted to 351 billion 800 million US dollars in dollar terms, imports grew by 15.8% year-on-year, and exports grew by 9.9% over the same period last year.

Export growth has hit a new high since 2011.

In terms of RMB, China's exports increased 7.1% in 2018, and imports increased by 12.9% compared with the same period last year. The trade surplus of the whole year was 2 trillion and 330 billion yuan.

According to the country's through train, the total value of China's imports and exports in 2018 amounted to US $4 trillion and 620 billion, with RMB in excess of 30 trillion yuan, a record high.

Among them, imports exceeded US $2 trillion for the first time and export volume was close to US $2 trillion and 500 billion.

In 2018, China's foreign trade "pcript" announced that the total value of China's imports and exports was as high as 4 trillion and 620 billion US dollars, with RMB in excess of 30 trillion yuan, a record high.

This encouraging value relieved textile workers who had been worried for several days.

After all, these two days, the RMB rose and the textile industry was worried: on the one hand, it was approaching the crazy appreciation of the RMB in the year; on the other hand, the trend of Sino US trade war was still unknown, and the Southeast Asian market was "covetous".

In a word, people who do foreign trade are now confused and wandering.

Can foreign trade get better in 2019?

Xiaobian today from the external situation to internal policy, for you to sort out some information for your reference.

Externally, the world economy is expanding steadily, and the market demand of major economies is growing. Global trade is expected to continue to recover.

However, due to intensified trade frictions around the world, tightening monetary policy in major developed economies, and rising geopolitical tensions, the downside risks of the world economy are increasing, and the external environment facing China's foreign trade development is more severe and complex.

In the past few years, the world economy has achieved rapid growth. On the one hand, it has benefited from the cyclical recovery of the economy. On the other hand, it has benefited from the loose fiscal and monetary policies which have been implemented by the major developed economies.

Looking forward to 2019, the supporting role of these two factors will be weakened.

From a cyclical point of view, major indicators such as industrial production and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' indices in major economies have been slowing down. The real estate market in developed economies has slowed down, indicating that the economy has changed from rapid growth to steady growth.

From the policy point of view, the stimulus effect of the Trump administration's tax reduction policy has gradually declined, and the developed economies such as the US and Europe are tightening monetary policy. The global macroeconomic policy has weakened the strength of economic growth, and the inhibitory effect has increased significantly.

In particular, some emerging economies have prominent structural contradictions in their economies, which are also affected by the monetary policy spillover effect of developed economies. The economic and financial situation is grim and has become an important threat to the steady growth of the world economy.

With the rapid development of global technological innovation, new energy technologies, new generation of information technology, and intelligent manufacturing technologies are in the ascendant. New patterns and patterns are emerging, which profoundly change the way of human production and life. But in the short term, they also aggravate structural unemployment.

In the latest world economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced the 2019 global economic growth rate from 3.9% to 3.7%, unchanged from 2018.

In recent years, with the trend of "anti globalization" in some countries, trade protectionism has risen, foreign trade policies have become more conservative and trade restrictions have increased.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) monitoring, from mid October 2017 to mid May 2018, WTO members implemented 75 new trade restrictive measures, including increasing tariffs, quantitative restrictions, increasing import links, and tightening customs supervision, etc., with an average of 11 items per month, which is higher than the average level of 9 items per month during the previous reporting period (mid October 2016 to mid May 2017).

WTO expects that the global trade volume growth in 2019 will drop from 3.9% in 2018 to 3.7% in the past two years.

In major economies, America's trade protectionism is the most prominent.

According to statistics from Global Trade Alert, in 2018 1-7, the protectionist measures introduced by the United States accounted for 33% of the world's total.

Trade protectionism in other economies is also increasing. The policy environment facing global trade is facing adverse changes, and maintaining stable growth is more difficult.

Over the past few years, the stock market in developed economies has generally risen, and commodity prices have rebounded from low to stabilize. Other economies have become an important factor in supporting world economic growth and have played a positive role in world trade growth.

After entering 2019, the risks faced by international financial and commodity markets may be highlighted, and volatility may rise.

From the economic fundamentals, the downside risks of world economic growth have increased, the confidence of enterprises and investors has dropped, financial investment and real economy investment have been more cautious, and the financial assets and commodity prices have been suppressed. However, the rising production cost of energy resources will form a support for commodity prices.

From the perspective of the liquidity environment, the developed economies are tightening monetary policy. Many agencies expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 3 times in 2019. The ECB will also gradually reduce the scale of quantitative easing. The Reuters expects that the size of the funds withdrawn from the market by the central banks in 2019 will exceed the scale of injection. The tightening of global liquidity will impact the price stability of the financial and commodity markets.

From the geopolitical situation, the oil exporting countries' reduction of production and the reopening of the us to Iran sanctions aggravate the fluctuation of oil prices, or even threaten the stability of global energy supply to some extent. The date of the withdrawal of the UK is approaching, and the two sides have not yet reached an agreement, which will affect the confidence of the European and global financial markets.

In particular, the international financial market is closely related to the bulk commodity market, and the fluctuation of one market will soon spread to another market, forming an amplification effect, which will adversely affect the world economy and trade.

With the acceleration of the adjustment of the world economic structure and the challenge of economic globalization, the new round of reshaping of international trade rules is also advancing rapidly.

The multilateral trading system is in a predicament, and many members have pushed for reform. However, no consensus has been reached on the direction and measures of reform.

There are some important new trends in regional and bilateral trade negotiations. The United States and Europe have agreed to carry out trade negotiations with "zero tariff, zero tariff barriers and zero subsidies to the auto industry"; the United States and South Korea have signed the new FTA; the US and Japan have reached agreement on negotiations on launching the goods trade agreement; the European Union has signed a free trade agreement with Singapore, and Mexico has entered into a new free trade agreement, which has been incorporated into the so-called "non market economy" clause.

In this regard, China believes that a country should, on the basis of mutual respect, equal consultation and mutual benefit and win win, rely on market potential and policy environment to attract trade partners. The purpose of establishing a free trade area is to facilitate trade among members. It should uphold the principle of openness and inclusiveness, and should not restrict other members' ability of external relations, and should not be exclusive.

With the rapid development of new modes of cross-border electricity providers and other new formats, the regulatory and restrictions are also increasing.

The EU's implementation of the Universal Data Protection Ordinance, which strictly protects user data and privacy, will have a far-reaching impact on cross-border e-commerce business involving EU enterprises and citizens. It has also formulated a new cross border electricity value-added tax provision, which will abolish the duty exemption policy for imported goods less than 22 euros.

The United States starts to withdraw from the Universal Postal Union program, and the cost of express logistics of various countries to cross-border electricity exports to the US may increase.

Internally, although the cost of labor and land is rising, some import and export enterprises are facing temporary difficulties. However, the fundamentals of China's foreign trade development are good, and the policy environment has been improving.

The nineteen party made great judgments that China's economy has shifted from high speed growth stage to high quality development stage, and has made major plans for implementing the new development concept and building a modern economic system.

The implementation of policies and measures to promote the development of high quality economy will be continuously improved by all localities and departments, which will continuously enhance China's economic innovation and competitiveness.

The structural reform of supply side deepened, optimizing the allocation of production factors such as labor and capital, and effectively improving the business environment of enterprises.

In the first three quarters of 2018, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was 76.6%, which was flat compared with the same period last year, and the cost and leverage ratio of enterprises decreased.

The new momentum of economic development has been growing, new technologies, new industries, new formats and new models have been nurtured and grown. The traditional industries have been quickening pformation and upgrading, and the ability to participate in high level international competition has been continuously enhanced.

The demand structure of China's economy has undergone a major adjustment. Consumption has become the first driving force for economic growth. In the first three quarters of 2018, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 78%, especially the consumption of 400 million middle-income groups rapidly escalated, and the import demand for quality goods and services increased steadily.

In recent years, in the face of increasingly fierce competition in the international market and increasing domestic factor costs, the vast majority of import and export enterprises have strengthened their confidence and difficulties, and have taken the initiative to turn the power to adjust their structure, actively promote innovation and development, increase investment in research and development of independent brands and independent intellectual property products, improve the production process by using advanced technologies such as intelligent manufacturing, and actively expand the international marketing network, and constantly enhance their overall competitiveness.

Thanks to the initiative of the large number of enterprises, the pformation and upgrading of China's export leading industries are accelerating. The importance of capital and technology intensive industries, such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech industries and so on, has become increasingly prominent, and exports of high value-added products have maintained rapid growth.

A number of enterprises have seized the opportunity of the new round of technological revolution and industrial pformation, and have made significant progress in the development of new modes of foreign trade, such as cross-border e-commerce, comprehensive foreign trade services, and market purchasing trade.

At present, China has produced a number of cross-border electricity supplier leading enterprises, and has built a cross-border e-commerce platform covering a wide range and strong system stability. Through optimizing pactions, finance, logistics and other links, it has greatly increased the efficiency of import and export and created a large number of new trade opportunities, so that the potential of small and medium-sized enterprises to import and export trade has been released.

China adheres to the basic state policy of opening to the outside world and persists in opening up its own country to build up a market space for the development of foreign trade.

In the construction of "one belt and one road", the proportion of goods trade between China and the countries along the coast has increased from 25% to 26.5% in the past 2013-2017 years.

At present, China has signed a "one belt and one way" cooperation agreement with more than 130 countries and international organizations. With the further development of the "one belt and one way" construction, the emerging market and developing countries' position in China's foreign trade pattern will continue to rise, and the layout of the diversified international market will be further optimized.

The construction of "one belt and one road" also pushed the central and western regions from open margins to open frontiers, and sustained release of trade potential, which has injected new impetus to the development of foreign trade.

With regard to the construction of free trade zones, China has reached 17 free trade agreements with 25 countries and regions, and its FTA partners are in Europe, Asia, Oceania, South America and Africa.

In 2017, China's trade volume with its FTA partners accounted for 25% and 51% of China's external trade in goods and services, respectively.

At present, China is negotiating or upgrading the 12 free trade agreements with 27 countries.

With the expansion of FTA's "friends circle", China's foreign trade will usher in a new and greater opportunity for development.

In the expansion of imports, the first China International Import fair was held in Shanghai. A total of 172 countries, regions and international organizations participated. More than 3600 companies participated in the exhibition, bringing a large number of high-quality goods and services, creating favorable conditions for enriching domestic market supply and meeting import demand.

In 2018, China reduced import tariffs several times, the total tariff level dropped from 9.8% in 2017 to 7.5%, with an average fall of 23%, which will effectively promote the balanced development of foreign trade.

The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of foreign trade, and has implemented a series of supportive policies in the face of the complicated international situation.

In September 18th, the Executive Council of the State Council determined measures to promote trade growth and facilitate customs clearance, put forward measures to promote trade facilitation at a higher level, reduce the total import and export clearance time, import and export regulatory documents, reduce 1/3 and reduce customs clearance fees, reduce import and export links, further reduce import and export enterprises' costs, improve export tax rebate policies, speed up the export tax rebate, reduce export inspection rates, expand export credit insurance coverage, encourage financial institutions to increase export credit insurance policy financing and export tax refund accounts pledge financing, increase credit for foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium enterprises, encourage and support enterprises to develop diversified markets, expand diversified market and expand imports of raw materials needed by domestic enterprises.

In October 8th, the executive meeting of the State Council also decided to improve the export tax rebate policy and speed up the tax rebate schedule, so as to reduce the burden on enterprises and maintain steady growth in foreign trade.

The Chinese government has actively nurturing a new mode of foreign trade new business. At present, the total number of cross-border electricity supplier comprehensive test area has reached 35, and the market purchasing trade mode has reached 14 pilot projects, and the development policy of foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises has been continuously improved.

These policy initiatives will further consolidate and boost confidence in import and export enterprises and stimulate enterprise vitality.

A comprehensive analysis shows that China's foreign trade development in 2019 is faced with both severe challenges and new potential for development.

This article is excerpt from the Ministry of Commerce's report on China's foreign trade situation (autumn 2018).