Interpretation: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Picked Up Slightly In January 2019

In January 31, 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index.

In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

1. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index has picked up slightly.

In January, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 49.5%, after a 4 month decline, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month.

The main characteristics of this month's manufacturing PMI are: first, the expansion of manufacturing industry has been slightly accelerated.

Production index was 50.9%, slightly higher than last month's 0.1 percentage point.

The new order index was 49.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month.

Among them, the new export orders index reflecting external demand was 46.9%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month.

The two is the narrowing of the main raw material purchase price and the overall level of factory price.

The price index and ex factory price index of major raw materials increased by 1.5 and 1.2 percentage points in the following 3 months, 46.3% and 44.5% respectively, but they are still in the contraction range.

Among them, food, alcoholic beverages, refined tea, tobacco products, textile and apparel, wood processing and furniture are closely related to consumption. The ex factory price index of manufacturing industry is located in the expansion area.

Three, the development of large enterprises is expected to be more optimistic.

The PMI of large enterprises was 51.3%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from last month, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry.

At the same time, the expected production and operation activity index of large enterprises is 55.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, and the operation of large enterprises is basically stable, which is relatively optimistic for future market development expectations.

In addition, the PMI of this month's small and medium enterprises was 47.2% and 47.3%, respectively, down 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points from last month.

The four is the continuous accumulation of new kinetic energy and the consumption effect of festivals.

The production index of high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing industry was 51.6% and 51.5%, respectively, up 3.2 and 1.3 percentage points respectively, which were significantly higher than the overall level of manufacturing industry.

The survey results showed that the proportion of enterprises that reflected the high cost of raw materials and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on the production and operation of enterprises was 34.5% and 12.7%, respectively, which decreased by 2.9 and 1.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month. They all fell for three consecutive months, indicating that the pressure on purchasing cost of raw materials has eased recently, and the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation has also been reduced.

Two, non manufacturing business activity index continues to rise

In January, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 54.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month, and higher than the average value of 0.3 percentage points in 2018 years.

The service sector has recovered significantly.

The service business activity index was 53.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from last month, and the boom in service industry rose to its highest level in 7 months.

Of the 21 industries surveyed, 15 industries had a higher business activity index than the critical point, and the overall service industry was running smoothly.

From the industry situation, the business activity index of wholesale, railway pportation, air pport, postal express, telecommunications, banking, insurance, tourism and other industries is located in the high economic zone of 57% and above, indicating that the related industries are more active than the other industries, such as holiday effect and consumption upgrading.

But securities, real estate and other industries are in a contraction interval, and the industry's prosperity is weak.

From the perspective of market demand, the new order index of service industry is 50.2%, higher than the 0.9 percentage point of last month, and it will return to the expansion area.

With the accelerated release of market demand, the price index of input products increased by 2.2 percentage points to 51.8%, reaching above the critical point. Although the sales price index is still below the critical point, it has picked up 2.1 percentage points to 49.4%, and the overall level of sales prices of enterprises has narrowed significantly.

The construction industry is at a high level.

The business activity index was 60.9%, which continued to be in the high economic zone, but dropped 1.7 percentage points from last month. This indicates that the growth rate of construction industry has slowed down by factors such as the low temperature winter weather and the close proximity of Chinese employees to the Chinese New Year.

From the perspective of market demand, the new order index of construction industry is 55.8%, although it dropped 0.7 percentage points from last month, but it is located in the higher prosperity section continuously, and the market demand is generally stable. The construction industry in the near future is expected to continue to expand steadily.

Three. The expansion of comprehensive PMI output index is accelerating.

In January, the composite PMI output index was 53.2%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the boom has picked up.

Manufacturing industry production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constituted the composite PMI output index, were 50.9% and 54.7%, up 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, indicating that the role of non manufacturing industries in stabilizing economic growth is further enhanced.