Ethylene Glycol Is Expected To Rise In March 2019.

Domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises started high, port inventory reached a record high level, downstream polyester demand is still good, but the terminal is not ideal. In February, ethylene glycol trend showed a trend of first inhibition and back up. From the paction price, the overall decline was still lower than that in January. Then, can March rise or fall?

Let's make a small analysis below.

Market trend of ethylene glycol in China

Bad profit

Supply (enterprise start up): as of February 25th, the domestic oil glycol started at 76%. Last week, in 82% (24 days, Fu De energy 500 thousand tons installation problem, parking for about 1 weeks), coal to ethylene glycol started at 73% (Henan Xinxiang ignition has been resumed at the end of this month or 3 month will produce products, then start up to 77%), in the downstream demand is poor, glycol supply surplus intensified.

Supply (Port stock): as of February 21st, the MEG port in East China's main port area has a stock of about 1 million 99 thousand tons, an increase of 34 thousand tons compared with last Thursday.

Among them, 80.9 tons in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 56 thousand tons per annulus, a daily average delivery of some 5000 tons of a mainstream warehouse, 81 thousand tons of Ningbo, a reduction of 12 thousand tons per annulus, 54 thousand tons of Shanghai, a reduction of 1 thousand tons per annulus, 117 thousand tons of Taicang, an increase of 2 thousand tons per annulus, an average daily delivery of 5000 tons of left and right mainstream storage areas, and a 38 thousand ton of Jiangyin, with an average reduction of 117 thousand tons per Annex.

Reaching the new high point since May 2014, the pressure of inventory on the market has been greater.

Imports are expected to reduce: due to poor downstream demand, port inventory is high, domestic supply pressure is greater, imports will be reduced.

The port is expected to reach 164 thousand tons this week, a decrease of nearly 100 thousand tons compared with last week.

Among them, Zhangjiagang plans to arrive at 100 thousand tons, Taicang port plans to arrive 20 thousand tons, Ningbo plans to arrive at 11 thousand tons, Jiangyin plans to ship 16 thousand tons, Shanghai plans to ship 17 thousand tons.

High cost of business support: Sino US trade negotiations are progressing smoothly, the implementation effect of OPEC reduction is obvious, the US sanctions against Venezuela aggravate tight supply expectations, and other favorable factors support, the international crude oil prices continue to rise, driving up prices of downstream products, and the high cost of oil glycol enterprises, and play a certain support for enterprises.

Ps: because of the cost pressure, the load of Eastern Union (Yangzhou) and Sanjiang petrochemical company has dropped to about 6.

In addition, Taiwan, South Asia, Taiwan and other equipment in order to avoid market risk, two sets of devices also entered the maintenance period ahead of schedule.

On the whole, some domestic ethylene glycol enterprises have reduced their supply and output.

With the dissipation of holiday factors, the downstream polyester start up is over 85%, and the pattern of weak supply and demand in March will be significantly improved.

Substantial progress has been made in Sino US trade negotiations, and the United States will postpone measures to impose tariffs on Chinese products originally scheduled for March 1st.

In addition, the cost side support of glycol in the low price area is strong, and the business mentality has improved significantly. In the traditional demand season, domestic ethylene glycol in March is expected to usher in a wave of rising prices.