Spot Supply Is More Relaxed And Cautious About PTA Uplink Height.

Since the beginning of 2019, the price of crude oil and PX has risen in the background of the cost side, and the spot price of PTA has gone up and sideways.

Recently, the downstream polyester polyester plant has gradually resumed and the load rate of the device has increased.

At present, PTA spot supply is relatively loose, and supply and demand are loosely balanced.

The fluctuation of PTA raw material price is obviously lower than that of the previous stage, and the accumulation situation of PX stock is obvious.

Considering the two influences of spot supply and demand and cost, the upward pressure of PTA spot price is bigger, and it is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short and medium term.

Spot supply is short term loose.

Since 2019, the load of PTA plant has been at a high level, with an average load rate of over 80%.

The latest data show that the overall load of the PTA device is 86.41%, higher than the same period last year, the highest level in the past 5 years.

Compared with 2018, after the Spring Festival this year, the density of plant maintenance is relatively low, and the overall output loss is not large. At the same time, it indicates that there will be more maintenance after mid March.

In terms of inventory, PTA inventory has been rising since returning to work after the year. The latest inventory data is 4.5 days, which is the same as the previous inventory data, which has kept the state of high inventory.

Compared with the past years, the PTA stock scale is very high, and the possibility of short term rapid elimination is relatively low.

From the supply side, higher device load and high spot inventory make PTA supply slack in the short term.

The demand for polyester and polyester in the lower reaches gradually resumed along with the Spring Festival.

Take polyester filament as an example, manufacturers returned to work smoothly after the Spring Festival in 2019 and returned to work faster than before.

The load rate of the latest polyester filament device has reached 91.92%, surpassing the summer and winter production peak in 2018, reaching the highest load level of PET plant in the past 5 years.

In terms of sales, after the Spring Festival, the average production and sale rate of polyester dropped to about 20%, but with the recovery of downstream enterprises' demand, the production and sale rate of polyester filament also increased.

The latest data of the production and sale of polyester filament is 120%, which has been greatly improved compared with the previous period, reaching the peak level of summer production in advance.

The price of terminal fabric has remained stable in recent years. According to the trend of Keqiao textile price index, the price of polyester and polyester cotton fabrics is at a high level compared with the same period last year. Even if the inflation factor is excluded, the absolute price will remain high.

Although the downstream demand for PTA has recovered rapidly, the supply of PTA is still loose.

In addition, the downstream load will reach the peak of summer production in advance, and will also overdraw the driving force of PTA price rise in the future.

Cost support is expected to weaken gradually.

Recently, the price of crude oil has rebounded under the stimulation of oil production reduction. At present, the price of WTI crude oil is about 55 dollars per barrel.

With the end of the US exemption period for the crude oil embargo in Iran, uncertainty in the supply of crude oil has gradually increased.

The peak of summer production of petrochemical companies in the northern hemisphere is approaching. Supply and demand resonance or crude oil prices have risen slightly in 3 and April.

But at present, the pressure of insufficient demand on the top of crude oil prices is still greater, and the probability of substantial breakthroughs in oil prices in the short term is low.

Since the price hit bottom in January 2019, the price of PX has risen with the price of crude oil.

In March, the price of PX gradually stabilized. The latest phase ACP reached a price of $1080 / ton, which was lower than that of the previous year.

The main PX manufacturers did not arrange maintenance or repair plan in the near future.

However, from the past maintenance arrangements, the second quarter will be the peak period of PX maintenance, and the supply of PX will be affected.

From the scale of inventory, the inventory of PX in East China has reached a historical high of 120 thousand tons. In the same period last year, the inventory of PX was only about 70 thousand tons, and the stock size increased by nearly 70% over the same period last year.

High inventory will play a role in smoothing the marginal changes in supply. Even if PX equipment is overhauled in mid March, taking into account the existing stock size and the growth rate of PTA load rate, the possibility of a sharp rise in PX spot prices is also low.

The price of PX is expected to maintain a weak trend and may be differentiated from the price trend of crude oil and naphtha.

Therefore, in the medium to short term, the cost side of PTA will gradually weaken its support for spot price.

Conclusions and recommendations

Overall, the PTA plant has a relatively high start-up rate. In the short term, the PTA spot supply is relatively loose, and the downstream polyester manufacturers are in high load ahead of schedule. PTA stocks are still at a high level.

There is still time for the peak of summer clothing production, and the PTA price will not have much room for improvement in the short term.

From the cost point of view, crude oil prices still strong action, PX surface followed the trend of crude oil fluctuations, but under the influence of high inventory, the decline is significantly higher than the rise, which will make PTA short term cost support weakened.

Comprehensive judgment, in the short term, PTA prices will be dominated by oscillating weak trend.

Risk points for PTA manufacturers ahead of large-scale overhaul and crude oil prices rose sharply.