Supply And Demand Game Short Term Limited Growth Of PET Staple

By the end of March 14th, according to the monitoring of business data, the average price of 1.4D*38mm polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu area was 9153 yuan / ton, up 1.29% from the beginning of the month, up 1.48% from a year ago.

Since last week, the market of polyester staple fiber has finally stopped rising. Since March, the price of PTA and ethylene glycol has increased substantially. The production and sales of PET staple fiber market has improved significantly in the replenishment period of the downstream factories, and the Sino US trade results have been good. The foreign trade orders have been relatively set, making the stocks of the polyester short line enterprises go down more obviously, with a rising trend of 100-200 yuan / ton.

Two, industrial chain situation

There are two reasons for this increase in polyester staple fiber prices.

1, rising raw material prices drive market sentiment.

Crude oil: OPEC's crude oil output decreased by 221 thousand barrels per day to 30 million 549 thousand barrels per day in February.

The market is more concerned about the OPEC monthly report issued last night. The implementation rate of OPEC production is indeed up to 100% of the market expected, and the implementation rate of production reduction is about 105%; the Russian energy minister Novak said that the plan to accelerate the pace of oil production reduction in March will be accelerated; Saudi Arabia plans to further reduce its crude oil output to 9 million 800 thousand barrels per day in March, and it is reported that Saudi Arabia will continue to control crude oil output and export in April, and the intensity of production reduction will be greater than that of previous agreements. OPEC will gradually reduce production and geopolitical situation to support the oil market.

Whether OPEC or non OPEC countries are pushing ahead with production cuts, there will be a slight increase in crude oil prices in the short term.

PTA: according to the price data of the business community, the market price of PTA in East China is 6635 yuan / ton, up 1.40% from the beginning of March, 0.79% higher than that of the previous year.

At present, the processing cost is 800 yuan, and the PTA tax payment cost is about 6000 yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 83%.

The start-up load of the polyester plant is 86.7%, the polyester manufacturer sells at a stable price, the overall production and marketing is weak, the load of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is about 75%, the weaving machine's production and marketing rate is 70%, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not strong.

Yi Shenghua 2#PTA plant dropped to 50% because of that reason; Hua Bin petrochemical and Ningbo Liwan PTA plant were restarted; Jiaxing Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA plant plans to start parking at the end of March, overhaul for about 20 days; Sichuan Shengda 1 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant is being tested; Dalian 3 million 750 thousand tons PTA device has been gradually recovered; and the 700 thousand million PTA PTA device is discharged.

The overall PTA operation rate is around 83%, and the inventory is basically 4-5 days.

Crude oil driven PTA futures rose strongly, spot prices also increased, and the market turnover atmosphere was active.

In addition, PX has more maintenance devices in the 2 quarter, and prices tend to rise and fall, supporting PTA prices.

2, downstream positive replenishment cycle, there is a certain demand.

Under the "gold three silver four" arrival, driven by raw material PTA, usher in the downstream replenishment cycle, some manufacturers still have the intention to replenish the library, the cotton mill bargain procurement, shipment two days better, stocks fell sharply.

According to the government work report, the basic tax rate of China's value-added tax has dropped from 16% to 13% and 10% to 9%.

Of course, this does not mean that the weaving stage has entered a hot stage of production. How will the new orders of the terminal increase the space for the subsequent polyester staple fiber?

Three. Conclusion

Although the price of crude oil is showing an upward trend, it has not been strongly supported, but shows a positive trend.

On the one hand, from Saudi Arabia in February, the intensity of the reduction in production has not been so strong that the former media has promoted the strength of the 10 million barrels, and there is a big gap.

On the other hand, before crude oil prices were weak and supported by production cuts, sustained growth needs support from crude oil demand data, but OPEC once again cut crude demand, forcing prices to bear pressure.

Crude oil gains are expected to be limited in the late period and may even fall.

Entering the peak season of textile industry in March, there is a certain demand for polyester, polyester, short and other products. As the upstream raw material, the price of PTA has also risen. However, the whole market is not hot enough to supply in short supply, and the overall rate of raw material increase is not large. During this time, whether it is weaving, adding bombs or traders, the market of polyester staple fiber has shown a pessimistic psychology.

In summary, the rise of raw material prices will drive polyester staple fiber to a certain extent. However, this supply and demand game is mainly based on the purchasing needs of downstream manufacturers. In the short term, the polyester fiber will form a "rising volume and limited price increase" situation.