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The Eighth, Ninth Round Of High-Level Consultations Is Coming. What Is The General Trend Of Sino US Textile And Clothing Trade?

2019/3/28 20:54:00 3816

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Sino US Consultations On Textile And Clothing Trade

This year, the pressure on China's foreign trade situation is not small.

According to customs statistics, the total value of imports and exports in China increased by only 0.7% in the first two months of this year. According to the US dollar, the total value of imports and exports in China decreased by 3.9% in the first two months of this year.

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China's textile and clothing exports are also under downward pressure.

Textile exports in 2019 1~2, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $38 billion 155 million, down 11.6% compared to the same period, of which the total export volume of textiles was 17 billion 380 million US dollars, down 7.8% compared with the same period last year. The total export volume of clothing was 20 billion 775 million US dollars, down 14.6% from the same period last year.

Sino US trade friction is obviously one of the influencing factors.

It is understood that

Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and Liu He, the leader of the Sino US comprehensive economic dialogue.

and

American trade representative lettse

Finance minister Mnuchin

Several rounds of telephone consultations have been held recently on Sino US economic and trade issues.

The two sides agreed that lettse and Mnuchin will be invited to visit China on 28~29 March and hold the eighth round of high-level Sino US economic and trade consultations in Beijing.

Vice Premier Liu He will be invited to visit the United States in early April to hold the ninth round of high-level Sino US economic and trade consultations in Washington.

The industry hopes that Sino US economic and trade frictions can be successfully resolved, creating a stable and predictable international trade environment for foreign trade enterprises.

China's foreign trade situation is expected to remain stable in the first quarter.

At the regular press conference held in March 21st by the Ministry of Commerce,

Ministry of Commerce spokesman Summit

Express,

In the first two months of this year, the total volume of China's foreign trade and imports declined in the US dollar, mainly due to the influence of the Spring Festival.

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Before and after the Spring Festival, foreign trade enterprises will have the characteristics of "pre - export concentration and import after the festival". According to historical data, the import and export of Spring Festival will fluctuate.

The Spring Festival this year will be 11 days earlier than last year, and the new year's Eve to fifteen will be in February, leading to the impact of the Spring Festival in February.

Gao believes that

Sino US economic and trade friction is also one of the factors that affect the foreign trade situation in the first two months of this year.

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In the second half of last year, some enterprises took into account the possible impact, concentrated imports and exports, and anticipated the share of imports and exports to the US in the first two months of this year.

Peak said.

Judging from the current situation, import and export growth in the first half of March has picked up. It is expected that China's foreign trade and imports will remain stable in the first quarter of this year.

。

Judging from the whole year, although the external environment of China's foreign trade development is uncertain and unstable, the endogenous driving force is still increasing.

The Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote the implementation of the stable foreign trade policy and strengthen relevant policy reserves. At the same time, it will promote foreign trade stability and quality through various measures, such as market diversification, support of new formats such as cross-border electricity providers, and quickening the level of trade facilitation.

Trade friction has a far-reaching impact on the development of the industry.

In 2018, under the complicated international environment, China's foreign trade is running smoothly and steadily.

According to the data provided by the China Textile Import and export chamber, the total value of foreign trade and import and export in the whole year is 4 trillion and 620 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.6%, of which, export is 2 trillion and 480 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.9%, and imports of 2 trillion and 140 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.8%.

At the same time, China's textile and garment trade has also achieved steady growth for two consecutive years.

In 2018, the export of textile and clothing was 276 billion 730 million US dollars, an increase of 3.7% over the same period, and imports of US $26 billion 140 million, an increase of 6.4% over the same period last year.

But at the same time, China's textile and garment exports accounted for a slight decline in international market share.

According to statistics from the world trade organization, China's textile and garment exports accounted for 35.8% of the total international market share since 2015, reaching a peak of 38.5%. In 2017, the share of the world's textile industry dropped to 35.8%, of which the share of textile trade was 37.1%, and the share of clothing dropped from 39.3% in 2015 to 34.9% in 2017.

Last year, my share of textile and clothing products in the US import market was 36%, 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 2017, while Vietnam's share was 10.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the same period last year. Last year, I accounted for 33% of the EU's import market share, 1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, while Bangladesh's share was 14.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

Cao Jiachang, President of China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce

Believe that

The current Sino US economic and trade frictions will have a far-reaching impact on the future development of the industry.

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He said that at present, the products that the United States has taxed has about $7 billion in textile and clothing products, accounting for 16% of the total export volume of textiles and clothing to the United States, and about 1.7 export enterprises.

Although the US tax has limited short-term impact on my textile and apparel industry, and because of the "grab the export" factor, I maintained a relatively rapid growth in exports to the US last year, but the uncertainty brought about by the Sino US economic and trade frictions has forced American buyers to make substantial adjustments to the procurement strategy and supply chain layout.

This is especially true for long and long dated orders with low delivery speed.

For fast fashion orders requiring higher delivery speed, it is also difficult to pfer overseas in the short term because of the high demand for supply chain efficiency and resource integration level.

In addition, China's textile and garment industry is also facing other trade remedy cases.

In 2018, my textile and garment industry met 14 trade remedy cases, of which 11 were newly established cases, involving 7 countries, including Mexico, India, Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, Madagascar and the United States, involving polyester staple, flax yarn polyester, denim, polyester wire and other products, and sunset review 3.

The total amount of the 14 cases involved is about US $260 million.

Although the amount is not large, but also to the main business of these products and market brings great difficulties.

What is the current trend of clothing purchasing in the US?

It was held in Shanghai recently.

2019 seventh "China and Asia Textile International Forum"

Up,

Julie Hughes, President of the American fashion industry association

Give a speech on the trend of US trade policy and the trend of clothing purchasing.

She said,

Trade protectionism and trade measures are the main concerns of the US brand and retailers in the current trading environment.

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Other concerns include:

Market competition from electricity suppliers, rising production and procurement costs, competition in traditional business practices, technological progress, supply chain management and sourcing of suppliers outside China.

Concerns about trade policy have been the most important concern of US brands and retailers for two consecutive years.

So what is the trend of American Apparel purchasing?

1.2018 years of traditional sourcing sources

According to the 2018 industry benchmarks of the American Fashion Association, the number of sourcing sources from the 51 countries and regions in the world is flat compared with that in 2017.

Of the top 10 sources of procurement, 8 came from Asia, and all Asian sourcing sources increased procurement rates in 2018.

The first is China, 100% of the surveyed brands are from China, second are Vietnam, and 96% of the brands are buying locally, reaching a record high.

The third place is Indonesia, 79% of the brands are locally purchased, fourth are India, 75% are local sourcing, fifth are Bangladesh, 75% are local sourcing.

It is noteworthy that the top 10 countries also have American countries, reflecting the trend of industry returning to the mainland and the Western Hemisphere.

The ninth place is Mexico, 50% of the enterprises are purchasing; tenth are the United States, 46% of the enterprises are purchasing.

In 2018, imports of various categories of textile and clothing products in the United States increased.

Clothing imports grew by 2.8% over the same period, the fabric grew by 8.5%, the finished products increased by 6.4%, and the yarn grew by 6.5%.

The fastest growing source of procurement in 2.2018 years

In 2018, the share of clothing purchased by the United States from China was 41.9%, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year.

Vietnam ranked second, accounting for 13.3% of the market share, an increase of 3.5% over the same period last year.

Thanks to preferential tax arrangements, the fastest growing source of procurement is concentrated in African countries.

Ethiopia grew by 89% and imports ranked thirty-second.

Garner grew by 42% and imports ranked forty-third.

Egypt grew 19% year-on-year and imports ranked nineteenth.

Madagascar grew by 17% and imports ranked twenty-eighth.

Kenya grew by 15% and imports ranked twentieth.

According to the market distance, procurement cost and social responsibility factors, the most comprehensive procurement sources were:

Vietnam, China, Mexico and Central American Free Trade Agreement countries.

American brands take the following two measures to reduce the risk of trade friction.

First, diversification of procurement.

Maintaining the diversification of the country of purchase will be the purchasing strategy of most brands in the next two years, and nearly 80% of buyers plan to maintain or increase the number of purchasing countries.

The two is through low-cost logistics and other technical means, so that goods reach the hands of consumers directly, reduce operating costs.

Referring to the outlook for the future trade policy of the United States, Julie Hughes expressed the following concerns and concerns:

The worst case and the biggest threat is that the United States may impose 10%~25% tariffs on all products imported from China.

Customs and border enforcement should be strengthened.

The new North American Free Trade Agreement continues to advance.

It is possible to automatically raise taxes on steel and aluminum, which may lead to a global trade war.

The Trump administration is about to launch bilateral trade agreements with Japan, and negotiations with the European Union and the United Kingdom are also in preparation.

The next step is to start negotiations with Africa (first Kenya), Philippines, Brazil and Switzerland.

Where does China's textile industry come from?

Julie Hughes believes that the global textile and garment industry is in an unstable period.

From the tariff problem to the global uncertainty factor in Britain, the whole industry is undergoing a profound pformation from the reorganization of enterprise bankruptcy to the wave of Guan Dian Chao and then to the changing consumer demand.

She said that colleagues in the industry must remain confident and see the positive side of uncertainty in order to turn crises into opportunities.

Cao Jiachang said that looking forward to the future, we still have confidence in the development of China's textile and clothing trade.

First, the "one along the road" initiative and the "China Africa industrialization plan" will effectively strengthen China's core position in the textile and garment supply chain in Asia and even in the world.

The pace of "going out" is quickened and the global industrial chain is laid out in many enterprises.

We plan to increase the proportion of foreign production, rationally distribute international resources and avoid trade risks.

Two, from OEM (OEM) to ODM (independent design and R & D) and OBM (private brand export) is the fundamental basis for China's textile and garment export competitiveness.

Many enterprises have actively explored the international marketing network, and actively expanded their own design products and their own brand exports through international mergers and acquisitions, cross-border electricity providers, setting up studios abroad, exhibition rooms and expanding wholesale and retail channels. Chinese designer brands have begun to shine in the international fashion week.

Three, intelligent manufacturing and pformation and upgrading is an inevitable choice for enterprises to maintain export competitive advantage.

The integrity and productivity of China's textile and apparel industry chain can not be matched by Southeast Asian countries.

Clothing production involves many details, and supplies and accessories are all very important.

For example, if the accessories such as zippers and buttons are miscounted before production, it will take only a few hours in China to replenish them, while in Southeast Asian countries, at least, the production line needs to be shut down for two days to wait for the accessories to be in place.

For some complex products, the delivery date of Southeast Asian countries is at least one month slower than that of China. Therefore, fast fashion brands and low inventory brands that need quick replenishment still have competitive advantages in China.

To cope with the changes in international textile and apparel consumption patterns and procurement demand in recent years, many excellent enterprises focus on high value-added links, upgrade their R & D and lean management direction, invest a large amount of funds for equipment upgrading and intelligent pformation, thus effectively enhancing the international competitiveness of enterprises.

The four is the great potential of China's domestic market, which provides a guarantee for the survival of China's textile and garment industry.

In 2018, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textile products in the above quota reached 1 trillion and 370 billion yuan, an increase of 8% over the same period last year, representing a cumulative increase of 4 times compared to ten years ago.

In 2018, the per capita consumption of clothing and clothing in China was 1289 yuan, and the per capita consumption was less than US $200. There was still much room for development of textile and clothing consumption level over 1000 dollars from developed countries.