The Dilemma Of Polyester Bottles Is Thin Ice.

During this period (0419-0425), PET bottle market is running downtrend.

Last week, the PTA market overhaul was not as good as expected. However, after the supplier repurchased the stock market, the price of PET bottle enterprises declined.

As of Thursday, East China polyester bottle flask material center of gravity 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

The average price of this week fell by 220 yuan / ton compared with the previous period (0412-0418), or 2.56%.

Under such a trend, how will the market of polyester bottle chips run in the short term?

Raw material PTA support weakened

International oil prices are rising and falling, the cost side PX prices have dropped slightly. Recently, PTA expects to restart more devices, and the supply will continue to increase. PTA is expected to overhaul the device because of the higher profits at present, resulting in the uncertainty of inspection and repair, and the favorable factors are decreasing. At present, the polyester profit is better, the maintenance is still high, the demand for PTA is stable, and the short-term PTA price is expected to remain in the pattern of shock consolidation under the influence of no new heavy information.

The supply side is relatively adequate.

From the supply side of the market, although the cash bottle manufacturers' spot resources are more intense, the mainstream manufacturers' orders have been more than May, but individual manufacturers still have spot supply, and the middle dealers have more spot resources, so the market does not appear tight.

At present, the average start-up load of bottle makers has reached 9 or more. The mainstream bottle bottle manufacturers have maintained high load operation. Only Pan Asian device maintains 5 load per year, and another 600 thousand ton plant has a restart plan, and spot spot resources will gradually increase.

Due to the orders of many manufacturers of bottle flakes have been put to May, and the late orders are not well followed, it is expected that the spot supply will be more relaxed after May.

Downstream demand is difficult to pick up in the short term.

In April, due to the high production season, the downstream polyester enterprises maintained a high profit rate pattern, and polyester stocks remained relatively low.

However, with the completion of the new rotation library, the probability of replenishment will be reduced in the short term, and the turnover of the polyester market is expected to become dull.

In recent years, the domestic temperature has picked up slowly, the rainy weather in the south is more, and the demand for domestic beverage demand has been pushed up. The overall demand for bottle flakes is difficult to upgrade. After April, the market demand for bottle flakes began to appear more obvious cooling down. The new orders in the market declined, and the short-term demand would be difficult to change.

What will happen next week?

Next week, PTA industry maintenance and restart co-exist, supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced, but due to poor demand side, its rebound power is not good; ethylene glycol maintenance device is more, is in the inventory cycle, but it is also constrained by demand, it is difficult to form a good trend.

PET bottle middlemen and some large factories replenishment, but because the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized enterprises to buy is not high, the market paction activity is difficult to improve, and next Friday a small holiday comes, the market paction or difficult to volume; but because the polyester chip industry cash flow has been compressed, and the spot resources are too loose, so the industry has a certain price mentality.

The reference interval is 8150-8400 yuan / ton.

(source: Zhuo Chuang, Jin Lianchuang)