How Far Can Xinjiang'S Textile Industry Be Driven By National Policies?

Summary of the policies and policies of Xinjiang's textile industry since 2014

Generally speaking, in recent 5 years, the state's policies on Xinjiang's textile industry mainly include 3 aspects: people, enterprises and industries, mainly from the recruitment and training of personnel, the production and operation of enterprises, the development of the industry, and the pportation of products and raw materials, etc., so as to say, from the utilization of raw materials to the staffing, and then to the production and operation of enterprises, and even the future development scale of the industry, the state has given great support.

(see Table 1) the meeting pointed out that deepening institutional reform is an inevitable step for deepening the innovation and development of the country, the province and the city from top to bottom, and it is also a powerful driving force and a favorable opportunity for the development of our city.

Two and 2014, Xinjiang textile industry is developing rapidly.

01

Yarn production increased year by year

As can be seen from Figure 1, cotton production in Xinjiang accounts for more than 80% of the total in the country. It is the main supplier of domestic textile raw materials. But before 2014, Xinjiang's textile industry was not developed, and most of the raw materials needed to pport to textile enterprises in the provinces and cities in the mainland for production and processing.

With the support of policies, Xinjiang's textile industry has been developing rapidly.

Since 2014, the output of Xinjiang yarn has increased year by year. With 2013 as the base period, the annual growth rate of Xinjiang yarn production is 8.2%, 39.5%, 176.9%, 298.1% and 391.2% respectively from 2014 to 2018.

(see chart 2)

02

Total industrial output value and industrial sales value increased rapidly.

Judging from the output value of Xinjiang's textile industry since 2005, the total industrial output value and industrial sales value of Xinjiang textile industry have increased rapidly since 2014. The same period is based on 2013. In 2014 -2018, the annual growth rate of textile industry gross output in Xinjiang was 8.7%, 17.7%, 93.9% and 201.8% respectively, and the annual growth rate of textile industry in Xinjiang was 11.4%, 17.2%, 97.2% and 206.3% respectively.

(see chart 3)

03

Xinjiang textile RPI goes down

As can be seen from Figure 3, the total profit growth of textile industry is relatively stable, and there is no such steep rise as Xinjiang yarn production, textile industrial gross output value and industrial sales value of textile industry, which may be directly related to the decline of Xinjiang textile RPI in the same period.

What is RPI?

That is, the price index of commodity retail price, the price index of the last link in the circulation process of commodities, which covers all the prices of consumer goods and office supplies sold by all industries, businesses, restaurants and other retail enterprises to urban and rural residents and organs and groups, and it is a data index reflecting the trend and degree of the change of commodity retail prices in a certain period.

Retail price refers to the similarity between RPI and consumer price index (CPI). The statistical range is RPI>CPI, and the purpose of RPI is to grasp the fluctuation of market commodity prices. On the basis of this, we compile other kinds of derivative advice, so as to provide basis for market circulation and national economic accounting.

CPI is mainly for observing inflation.

Of course, from the statistical yearbook of China, the trend of change is almost synchronous and highly correlated.

Three. How far can Xinjiang's textile industry fly?

Having said so much, how long can Xinjiang's textile industry fly?

Let's make a simple calculation.

1, according to the first stage (2014-2018) of the development of the textile and garment industry to promote employment planning outline (2014-2023 years), by 2018, cotton spinning capacity reached 13 million spindles, and the total output value of textile and garment industry reached 86 billion yuan.

The second stage (2019-2023), by 2023, cotton spinning capacity reached 20 million spindles, and the total output value of textile and garment industry reached 212 billion 500 million yuan.

Can this goal be achieved?

After rough calculation, the author thinks that this goal can be basically achieved.

01

Calculate the base growth of yarn production in different provinces

Taking the year 2013 as the base period and 2014-2018 years, only the annual growth rate of yarn production in Anhui, Fujian and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region increased year by year. The proportion of yarn production in the 3 provinces (autonomous regions) accounted for 18.2% of the total in 2017 and 25.9% in 2018. If 2013 was the base period, the output of yarn in other years increased year by year in addition to the decline of the yarn production in 2018, and the proportion of yarn production in the 3 provinces (autonomous regions) accounted for the proportion of the whole country, which was 12% in 2017 and 12.3% in 2017.

(see Table 2)

03

New production capacity of cotton spinning ingot

Combined with the growth of yarn production in 2014-2018 years and the new capacity of cotton spinning ingots in 2014-2017 years (the National Bureau of statistics will announce the new production capacity data in 2018), the author thinks that the yarn production of Xinjiang and Ningxia is higher than that of Ningxia, but considering that the proportion of Ningxia yarn production in the whole country is relatively low, less than 1%, the possibility of the increase of cotton spinning spindles' new production capacity in Xinjiang is very great.

Based on 2014, the annual growth rate of cotton spinning ingot increased by over 12% in 2015 -2017. If we want to achieve the target of 13 million ingots in 2018, it will only increase 4.1% compared with 2017.

The second stage is to achieve the target of 20 million spindles in 2023. Compared with 13 million ingots in 2018, the average annual growth rate should reach 10.8%. As long as the current growth rate does not decrease, it is not a problem to accomplish this goal.

(see Table 3, figure 4).

03

Total output value of textile and garment industry

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the total industrial output data in 2018 at the end of December 2018. We will use the available data to figure out whether the target of gross output value of textile and garment industry will reach 86 billion yuan in 2018.

Based on the total industrial output value of Xinjiang's textile industry, textile and garment industry and wool textile industry in the last 42017 years, the total output value of the textile industry in Xinjiang is 77 billion 560 million yuan. According to the total output value of the textile industry in Xinjiang in the year of 86 billion dollars in 2018, the plan can only be completed by 10.9% on the basis of the previous year's growth of 10.9% last year.

To achieve the target of 200 billion yuan of output value of textile industry in 2023, the average annual growth rate of -2023 in 2019 will reach 26.5%. According to the current average annual growth rate of 32.5% in 2014 -2017, it should be completed.

From Figure 5 and Figure 6, we can see that in 2014 -2017, the number of textile enterprises in Xinjiang and the main business income of Xinjiang textile industry were on the rise. Xinjiang is changing from textile raw materials to textile raw materials, and the import and export trade of Xinjiang port is also developing, especially Huoerguosi port, with the support of the "one belt and one way" policy.

According to the data released by Huoerguosi customs in April 18th, the volume of imports and exports of Huoerguosi port reached 8 million 650 thousand and 700 tons in the first quarter of 2019, and the volume of import and export volume was 26 billion 794 million yuan, up 17% and 32% respectively over the same period last year.

As an important node in the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt, Huoerguosi has become China's closest and most convenient port to Central Asia, Western Asia and Europe, and is the hub of the Eurasian Continental Bridge.

In conclusion, it is expected that the development of Xinjiang's textile industry should still be on the "fast track" until at least 2023.