The Trend Of Production And Sale Of Polyester Filament Has Changed.

In the past two days, the start-up load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been maintained at an earlier stage. With the promotion of price cuts, the polyester market has slightly recovered, and the production and sale rate of polyester filament has exceeded 100% for two consecutive days.

As of May 10th, the price of filament was stable and weak, and the price differentials rose.

Then the upstream trend is not clear. What is the trend of polyester filament in the short term when the downstream demand is in the off-season?

Polyester POY market average price

There is no positive support for the cost side.

At present, the PTA market maintains a high price in the mainstream suppliers' continuous repurchase, and the downlink space is limited.

Glycol spot is adequate, wharf inventory remains high, rigid demand procurement is the main.

Later polyester factory stock rose to reduce production or forced PTA and other raw material factories to make profits, but it takes a certain time. In addition, recently, China's Ministry of Commerce Information Office announced that the US tariff has been raised from 200 billion to 25% for the US $10% shipment of China's products, no doubt adding frost to the snow.

Cost side, there is no good support at present.

Production and sales are good and inventory is rising.

Affected by the price stability of the mainstream products in the downstream market, the market situation of the filament market continued to be good last week, the operating rate increased by 2.84 percentage points to 98.61%, the average production and sales rate rose to 90%, the highest production and sales rate reached 100%, and the inventory remained unchanged.

Last week, the price of the filament remained unchanged and the price differentials Rose: the POY price dropped by 300 yuan / ton to 8700 yuan / ton, the difference was 1319/ tons, and the ratio fell by 243 yuan / ton.

In addition, from the inventory data, the overall stock of polyester market is concentrated in 15-23 days, and the overall high inventory is also a major factor in the downstream weakness.

In terms of specific products, POY stocks are concentrated for 6-11 days, and FDY stocks are close to 12-17 days, while DTY stocks are about 23-29 days.

Pet factory inventory chart

To sum up: Although the current polymerization raw material market performance is strong price support, but the downstream weaving itself turned to light, the trend of the empty start rate decline, bring the wait-and-see mentality to the polyester filament, the purchasing atmosphere is generally cautious, next polyester spinning factory still mainly sales volume.

The price of polyester filament will also be adjusted in a small range this week.

(source: Guangda securities, Huaxin futures)