China's Clothing Industry Is Facing A Turning Point.

The extremely poor first quarter results of Taiping bird and Smith Barney clothing have already indicated that 2019 will be the year of China's garment industry going against the trend. It also verified the judgment of the fashion industry research and consulting agency No Agency early last year on the turning point of China's garment industry.

Before the International Statistical Bureau released its monthly data on Wednesday, Tang Xiaotang, analyst at No Agency in May 14th, predicted that in April, the growth of retail sales of consumer goods in China is expected to reach a new low, "if there is no accident, it will break 8".

The analyst cited the monthly data analysis of 3813.HK on Tuesday, saying that the sports industry has been supporting the main growth power of the garment industry in the past three years. Baosheng International's growth rate has been cut to 10.5% from 19.8% in the first quarter, and the leisure wear industry has already entered the recession. The cotton and cotton yarn futures both stop down and the sale of the grey fabric spot indicates that the industry has entered the downside space completely. There is no upward movement, and the price war will become more and more intense and new deflation will not be ruled out.

Before that, China's two largest casual wear enterprises, 603877.SS and Shanghai Metersbonwe Fashion&Accessories Ltd. (002269.SZ) Shanghai Metersbonwe apparel Limited by Share Ltd (hereinafter referred to as "Mei Bang dress") issued the first quarter earnings and profits fell sharply.

In the first quarter, the profits of Taiping bird clothing dropped by 34.90% to 86 million 590 thousand yuan, compared to 133 million yuan in the same period in 2018. After deducting the profit, the main business profit was only 31 million 189 thousand yuan, down 65.37% compared with the first quarter of 2018, and the profit of the US state clothing in Zhejiang also dropped to 38 million 348 thousand yuan, which was 23.92% yuan lower than the 50 million 407 thousand yuan in the first quarter of 2018.

During the reporting period, the U.S. apparel revenue dropped 20.68% from a year ago, from 2 billion 177 million 900 thousand yuan to 1 billion 727 million 600 thousand yuan.

The more obvious sign is that both the Taiping bird dress and the American Bon dress have started the closing mode, which shows that the priority of profits is placed on the scale growth, which usually represents the sign of an industry falling into recession.

At 10 a.m. on Wednesday morning, the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that in April, China's clothing industry restricted its first negative growth in 10 years, down 1.1% from the same period last year, while the nominal growth rate of the retail industry was 7.2%, a 16 year low in May 2003.

Excluding the price factors, the growth rate of retail industry in April was further reduced to 5.1%, while the main factor in the decline of clothing sales in February 2009 was also the factor of the lunar year. In the previous month, the growth rate of clothing sales in January 2009 was up to 34.1%. The effect of the lunar new year on the growth rate of clothing sales was reversed. The growth rate of clothing sales also hit a 16 year low of 3.5% in May 2003.

Aman Chang, a statistician of the Trade Statistics Division of the National Bureau of statistics, explained the retail sales volume of consumer goods in April 2019.

According to the statistician, the total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the movement of the May 1 holiday (two days in the three day of last year's holiday last year) in April.

It is estimated that if the holiday mobility factor is excluded, the growth rate in April will be basically the same as in March.

Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said at a press conference on Wednesday that the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by about 8.7% on the same month in April.

At the press conference, Liu Aihua said that China's population size is close to 1 billion 400 million, and it has the largest and most growing middle income group in the world. The trend of consumption upgrading is more and more obvious, and the consumption potential is very large.

She also said that consumption has become a new engine to stimulate China's economic growth. In recent years, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has remained at 60% and 70%.

The central economic work conference clearly pointed out that it will promote the formation of a strong domestic market as the key task in 2019.

With the increase of residents' income, the improvement of the consumption environment, the improvement of product quality and the acceleration of implementation of a series of policies and measures, the consumption potential will be further released.

Investment still has great potential in promoting industrial upgrading and short development.

However, in April, when the data fell across the board, the more worrying real estate investment growth and sales continued to be strong. During the period of high economic growth, the strong real estate industry could stimulate consumption to a certain extent, especially high-end consumption, but in the economic pressure period, the continued strengthening of the real estate industry has a greater negative impact on consumption.

1-4 months, China's real estate development investment of 34217 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9% over the same period, the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points faster than that in 1-3 months, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous year.

The total area of commercial housing sales in China was 420 million 850 thousand square meters, down 0.3% compared with the same period last year, and the sales volume of commercial housing in the whole country was 39141 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% over the same period last year.

In April, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in the four big first tier cities in the north of Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month, and the sales price of second-hand housing rose by 0.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month. The sales price of newly built commercial housing in 31 second tier cities increased by 0.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, and the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.6%, or 0.6 percentage points.

The sales price of newly built commercial housing in 35 three line cities rose 0.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the sales price of second-hand houses rose 0.6%, or 0.1 percentage points.

In the negative growth of clothing sales, auto related consumption continued to decline is still the main factor of low consumption growth, auto consumption in April was 305 billion 400 million yuan, down 2.1% compared with the same period last year.

In all consumption categories, the growth rate of basic consumption, which was boosted by CPI factors, rose only.

In April, the number of grain, oil and food products increased by 9.3% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 2.1 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of the consumer goods market. The daily consumption of the products increased by 12.6%, the growth rate was 5.4 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of the consumer goods market, and the two digit growth rate continued to grow.

In April 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 30586 billion yuan, of which, the retail sales of consumer goods on the upper limit were 11120 billion yuan, an increase of 2%.

In April, consumer prices nationwide rose 2.5% over the same period, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month and a 0.1% rise of the month.

According to the classification, the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 4.7% compared with the same period last year, the clothing increased by 1.8%, living increased by 2%, daily necessities and services increased by 1.1%, traffic and communications decreased by 0.5%, educational culture and entertainment increased by 2.5%, medical care increased by 2.6%, and other goods and services increased by 1.9%.

After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 1.7%, or 0.1 percentage points lower than last month.

In 1-4, consumer prices nationwide rose 2% over the same period last year.

In 2019 1-4, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 128376 billion yuan, an increase of 8% over the same period last year.

Among them, the retail sales volume of the upper limit was 46212 yuan, an increase of 3.5%.

In 1-4 months of 2019, the national online retail sales volume was 30439 billion yuan, up 17.8% over the same period last year.

Among them, the online retail sales of physical commodities increased by 23933 yuan, an increase of 22.2%, accounting for 18.6% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and the consumption, wear and use of commodities increased by 26.7%, 23.7% and 21.2% respectively in online retail sales of physical commodities.

Data show that online sales increased further in April. In the first quarter, China's online retail sales reached 22379 billion yuan, an increase of 15.3% over the same period last year.

Among them, the online retail sales of physical commodities increased by 17772 yuan, an increase of 21%, accounting for 18.2% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and the consumption, wear and use of commodities increased by 24.6%, 19.1% and 21.3% respectively in online retail sales of physical commodities.

Author: He Wei