June Textile Market Bottomed Out, PTA Industry Chain LED

According to the textile index, the textile market in June showed a trend of "V" which first fell and then rose. In June 13th, the textile index reached 862 points, hitting a bottom rebound after a new low in the past two years. As of June 30th, the textile index was 888 points, down 2 points from 890 at the beginning of the month, down 23.18% from the 1156 point (2018-09-03) of the cycle, which was 24.20% higher than the 715 lowest point of 2016 17. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

In terms of price, according to the price monitoring of business, 6 commodities in the textile sector rose by 06 in the month of 2019. Among them, there were 4 kinds of goods that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 23.5% of the number of commodities monitored. The top 3 commodities were PTA (11.34%), polyester POY (10.56%) and polyester FDY (9.92%) respectively. There were 11 kinds of commodities with a decrease of 5%, accounting for 17.6% of the total number of goods monitored. The top 3 products were nylon POY (-8.75%), nylon DTY (-8.64%) and viscose staple fiber (-5.45%).

On the export side, the export of textiles and garments stabilized in May, and the export performance of the industry was better than expected. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in the 1-5 months was 99 billion 589 million US dollars, down 2.23% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.46 percentage points higher than that in the first four months of this year. Among them, the total export volume of textiles was 48 billion 310 million US dollars, an increase of 1.53% over the same period last year, and the total export volume of clothing was 51 billion 280 million US dollars, down 5.52% from the same period last year.

Favorable factors gathered PTA monthly increase of over 11%

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic PTA spot market in June showed a sharp rebound after the first shock adjustment, and the average market price in June 28th ended at 6366 yuan / ton, up 11.34% from the beginning of the month, up 8.45% over the same period. The futures market also maintained a strong momentum, of which the June 27th PTA futures contract closed up, up 5.02%, reported 6026 yuan / ton, refresh the two month high. At present, the shortage of PTA spot circulation, the unexpected decline of US crude oil inventories, the high starting and low inventory of polyester links, and the easing of Sino US trade frictions, plus the impact of futures market speculation, will continue to ferment in the short term. The market still needs to pay attention to PTA supply side and terminal demand changes. Judging from the whole July, it is expected that the price of PTA will show a trend of first rise and then fall.

National cotton auction bid to enhance the cotton market signs of warming

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic cotton spot market weakened in early June and recovered in the last ten days. As of June 28th, the average spot price of domestic cotton was reported at 14222 yuan / ton, down 2.55% from the beginning of the month, up 12.84% last year. At the beginning of June, domestic lint spot prices continued to decline, followed by a slow rise. This month, the US cotton export weekly showed that China cancelled the contract in large numbers. On June 7-13, the net contract volume of US cotton exports was -2.7 million tons, and the cotton futures were down and down. Immediately after that, the leaders of China and the United States released positive signals of trade consultation, and both domestic and overseas lint futures rose. National cotton auction bid increased, transaction prices rose, domestic stock rose, but the deal remained flat. At present, textile mills compete for cotton reserves on the one hand. On the other hand, they use imported cotton quotas to control production costs and reduce trade risks. Domestic stock market was weak at the end of the month, and the price was strong. Cotton prices remain unchanged for the time being.

Raw materials market to boost nylon ready to go up

According to the price monitoring of business, Jiangsu nylon filament continued to decline in June. As of June 28th, the price of nylon POY in Jiangsu area was 15440 yuan / ton, down 8.75% from the beginning of the month, down 27.17% from the same period last year. The price of nylon FDY was 20100 yuan / ton, down 4.74% from the beginning of the month, down 17.96% from that of the previous month, and the price of nylon DTY was 17967 yuan / ton, down 8.64% from the beginning of the month, decreasing by 25.39% over the same period. In June, the nylon market continued to slump and prices were low. Traders said that this year the market is bad. Some manufacturers expect that the market will continue to be weak at the beginning of the price cut. Since April, the price of nylon has fallen sharply, falling at 13%-16% due to the collapse of crude oil, the lack of cost support and the weakening of orders. Crude oil rebounded this month, coupled with a signal that the Sino US trade situation is likely to grow better. At the end of the month, factory prices remained stable and rebounded. Sinopec announced that the price of caprolactam in July was 12000 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton compared with June settlement price. The price forecast of nylon manufacturers will increase and encourage downstream purchasing.

Good raw materials to stimulate PET staple rebound

According to the price data of business associations, the average price of domestic 1.4D polyester staple fibers was 7860 yuan / ton as of June 28th, down 1.43% from the same month, down 11.12% from the same period last year. The price of the factory is mostly 7800-8100 yuan / ton, and the actual turnover is 7600-7900 yuan / ton. With the support of the raw material market, the market price of polyester staple fiber has entered a stop and rebound channel in the middle of the year, and has increased by 7% in just 15 days. Some manufacturers have repeatedly raised their quotations, and the weekly quotation of Sinopec has also been raised again. At present, the market of PET staple fiber is good, and the rally is continuing. At the same time, due to the early loss operation, most factories limit production and reduce production, temporarily restart the time to be determined, so the overall inventory pressure is not large. However, the downstream yarn factories will have limited acceptance because of the rising speed of raw materials, or will restrict the space of price rise.

Demand continues to slump, sticky short market pessimism enveloped

According to the price data of business associations, the average price of 1.2D viscose staple domestic market was 11500 yuan / ton as of June 28th, down 5.25% from the same month, down 23.59% from the same period last year. The manufacturers are interested in the price. Recently, the atmosphere of the negotiation is better. The output of cotton lint in the upper reaches is limited, and the price of cottonseed is high. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection and the low price of imported short fiber, the price of cotton lint is expected to be stable. The downstream yarn market is weak as a whole. The average price of 30S cotton yarn in Shandong area is 17300 yuan / ton, down 4.95%, down 14.78% from the same period last year. At present, the whole industry chain is in a state of inventory from yarn to grey cloth to home textiles and other end products. Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang enterprises have said that the stock of cotton yarn in some small and medium cotton mills has generally been over 1 months, up to three months. Demand continues to slump, the viscose market is expected to maintain the status quo, prices will not fluctuate significantly in the next two months.

Seasonal off-season cocoon silk market retreat risk

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average price of raw silk market in June 28th was 346500 yuan / ton, up 1.91% from the beginning of the month, down 25.72% from the same period last year. The average price of dry cocoon market was 106000 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from the beginning of the month, down 28.62% from the same month. Fresh cocoons continue to be listed in Guangxi's silkworm area. Recently, most of the areas are heavy rain, with more rainfall and cocoon quality. The purchase price in Huanjiang area is around 38-39 yuan / kg, and the rate of relief is about 60%-65%. On the downstream side, silk mills have a strong desire for price increases under cost pressures, while exporters and weaving enterprises follow up orders in general, and the terminal power is limited. Because of pressure on inventory and capital, most of the raw materials are short term replenishment and cautious. At the same time, with the arrival of seasonal off-season, orders for clothing in summer are gradually ending. Most of the weaving enterprises have already finished all the large orders in the early stage, and the clothing orders in autumn and winter are being ordered or not yet started. Recently, the cocoon silk market is in a stalemate, and some hopes for the Sino US trade situation have also been passed to the recent expectations of cocoon silk. But with the advent of seasonal off-season, demand side support weakened, cocoon silk prices fall more likely.

Bad factors gather polyurethane market difficult to change

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic spandex market continued to show a "down and down" trend in June. As of June 28th, the average price of 40D spandex market was 32500 yuan / ton, down 4.69% from the beginning of the month, down 12.40% from the same period last year. Near the end of the month, the spandex market is generally sold, mainly due to the depletion of stocks, and the factory is not well shipped. The MDI market in the upstream raw materials declined significantly, but it slowed down after mid June, and there was a warming trend. As of June 28th, the average price of the market was 12300 yuan / ton, down 9.72% from the beginning of the month. At present, the price of aggregate MDI market in East China is up and there is no market price. Downstream into the traditional textile industry in the off-season, market demand generally followed, cautious view of the market. On the whole, the raw material market is basically stable and the cost is insufficient. The main demand is downstream, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is general. The shipment of the manufacturer is still in the doldrums, and the turnover is relatively low. In the circular machine area, 3.5 of the products are in the vicinity, and the warp knitting field is running at about 6 percent. At present, the spandex market has many low price sources and a strong wait and see atmosphere. On the whole, the price of spandex will still be weak in the short term.