Straight Pull Up! PTA Long "Return Of The King" Or "A Shot In The Dark"?

Yesterday, PTA main contract late pulled straight up, rose sharply, closing up to 3.17%. Although the night plate was slightly oscillatory down, it ended up at 6110 yuan / ton with a 2.48% increase. This is the first time that PTA has pulled up since the beginning of July, and this straight line has raised the circle of people in a fog: is PTA going back again?


However, reporters learned that yesterday's sharp rise is mainly due to market rumors of news stimulation. As a matter of fact, the PTA market has been repeatedly repeated by recent news, but at present, the fundamentals of PTA have not improved significantly.


In addition, yesterday, the Fujian monetary authority will introduce guidelines to promote the capital market, and support the merger and reorganization of textile shoe and clothing companies. News, A shares related to the rapid rise of the shares of listed companies, Feng Bamboo textile trading, the price of birds, seven wolves and other shares have also surged. Affected by this, the textile and garment sector in the 29 CITIC first tier industry sector is more advanced, with a slight decline of 0.29% to win the market. However, market participants said that although the policy would be beneficial to the textile terminal consumption, it had limited effect on PTA, and more remained in the stock price of enterprises in the relevant regions.


PTA "the return of the king"?


Yesterday, PTA's main contract rose 1909 straight in the afternoon, and it rose nearly 200 points, and stood on the 6000 yuan / tonne pass. This is also the first pulls up after PTA high. As of 10, the PTA1909 contract closed up 188 points or 3.17%, with a 4% fluctuation in the day.


This has led many investors to "ask questions" for a while. Is this the return of PTA? At night, PTA1909 continued to shoot up and reached a 6170 yuan / tonne high point, and then returned to 6110 yuan / ton at 2.48%.


According to press reports, the main reason for the rapid rise of PTA is the stimulus of market rumors, and its fundamentals have not improved significantly. "For today's abrupt rise, there is speculation in the market that big producers may cut production, but there is no official statement. Other kinds of speculation are unproven, but what we can see is the sudden surge of nearly 200 thousand stocks in the intraday market, and the strong rise of the Bulls has led to price inflation. Pang Chunyan, a senior analyst at China investment and Anxin futures, told reporters.


There are rumors on the Internet that a large domestic manufacturer should reduce the amount of contract, but this statement has not received official response. "Fuhai set up 4 million 500 thousand tons of PTA plant originally planned to stop in July 3rd, then postponed to July 9th formally parking, planned maintenance for 20 days. In the short term, the overall liquidity of the PTA spot market is still tight. In the afternoon, it is said that mainstream suppliers may reduce the volume of contracts from 8 to September, but the information has not yet been confirmed. Wei Lin, chief futures analyst, said.


PTA demand margin weakened earlier


"Downstream, the polyester production and marketing downturn in recent years, polyester cash flow is compressed, downstream polyester factory production continues to expand, the demand side is weaker than the previous margin." Wei Lin said.


It is understood that the downstream polyester plant profit is still acceptable, theoretically speaking, although there may be a reduction in production, but the actual reduction in production intentions may be weak. "From the profit point of view, the bottle film industry is poor, but the staple fiber staple profits are still good, and the stock level of filament staple is low at present, so the willingness to reduce production in theory is lower. However, the production and sale of polyester products began to shrink significantly from last Wednesday, and the production and sales of products only 1 to 2 per day. Pang Chunyan said, from the perspective of active control of inventory, polyester enterprises may moderate production, but the possibility of a substantial reduction is unlikely. Therefore, we anticipate that the starting rate of polyester industry has dropped from a high level of 93% to 90%.


From the polyester end, the staple fiber is still profitable, and the willingness to reduce production is weak. But the bottle end is still in a deficit, and there may be a willingness to cut production. "Specifically, the bottle end involves polyester production capacity of 1.29%, a month's overhaul time, equivalent to PTA demand reduction of 51 thousand and 600 tons. In fact, the volume is not large, so the actual pressure on the formation of PTA is not great. Guotai Junan Futures analyst Ye Weile said that the demand from the bad, so that the demand margin of PTA is gradually weakening.


At present, bottles, slicing and filament and a small amount of staple device have been implemented, and the future production is still filament, chips and bottles. "If all production is reduced according to plan, the starting rate of polyester industry in July will be reduced to less than 90% from over 93% last weekend. In July, the supply and demand side of PTA will shift from a small warehouse to a balance or even a small warehouse, so there is little impact from the supply and demand side." Pang Chunyan said.


However, Pang Chunyan said that the future consumer end is more profitable or negative impact, or look at the terminal order situation, and need time to reflect. At present, the inventory of raw materials and finished products of weaving enterprises is at a high level. If the order is poor, the weaving capacity of the weaving enterprises will be restricted in the future. Therefore, the stock of polyester staple fiber will continue to accumulate, to a certain extent, it will truly reflect the pressure.


From the perspective of terminal consumption, as the raw material has surged and plummeted, the terminal has begun to digest the pre stocking stock, and the raw material preparation volume has dropped, but it is still at a relatively high level. A good uptrend in the early stage has given the conditions for the sale of low-end products in the terminal weaving Market. After the sale of low-priced goods in some markets, the price of high priced products has once again been unsalable, and the profit of grey fabrics has not improved.


A share textile plate performance


According to the Securities Times news, Fujian Financial Supervision Bureau will speed up the Fujian provincial capital market promotion guidance. Among them, we will support qualified textile and footwear enterprises to accelerate the listing and financing and refinancing, and guide the listed companies to carry out merger and reorganization. At the same time, we should promote the role of provincial industrial equity investment funds and their sub funds, Quanzhou M & a funds and other government investment funds to support more conditional cities and districts, set up government led M & a funds, attract famous private equity funds from both inside and outside the province to participate in the investment and financing docking of Fujian textile and footwear industry, and promote the integration, merger and reorganization of textile footwear and listed companies and upstream and downstream enterprises.


As a result of this news, the share price of A share related listed companies rose rapidly, and the textile and garment sector surged late. Feng Bamboo textile was directly sealed to the trading limit, and China Textile shares hit the limit, and the related enterprises such as Ruyi group, noble bird, Xun Xing share and seven wolves rose. Affected by this, the textile and garment sector in the 29 CITIC first tier industry sector is more advanced, with a slight decline of 0.29% to win the market.


However, market participants said that the news had a limited effect on the PTA of textile raw materials, and was not the main reason for the rise of PTA's main contract yesterday. Although the good effect of terminal good on raw materials is also logical, the degree of improvement remains to be seen.


In addition, if policy messages are effective, cotton should also serve as raw materials and should respond accordingly. But judging from the trend of cotton, there is no obvious performance, and there is no direct impact on the PTA impact that there is no domestic factory reduction. Wei Lin said.