Analysis Of The Trend Of Yarn Market Since The 200 Billion Tariff Increase In May

From the domestic layout situation, the yarn market is suffering from "internal and external troubles", and the industry's discretion is mixed with empty emotions. Since March 2018, Sino US economic and trade relations have been repeated several times, from unilateral tariffs to mutual tariff increases. "Vietnam and the European Union signed free trade agreement", "zero tariff" to guide foreign trade orders gradually moved to Southeast Asia.

As early as May, as the US tariff rate on imports to China increased from 10% to 25%, the spread of negative sentiment on the news increased the expectations of the industry for the weak market. 200 billion. PTA and cotton futures have gone empty, and in a period of more than a month, the trend of extending to the low level has been constantly refreshed. According to market participants, in the face of the tested market, in order to restore the confidence of the industry, the buyers and sellers have close contacts, but the order has been shrinking in the cautious mood, and the embarrassment situation of the textile enterprises selling less than the production has deteriorated.

In many regions, textile factories and weaving mills have excessive reserves of conventional reserves. In the general disadvantage of inventory in 1 and a half months or more, more than 2 months have been used to avoid the serious occupation of capital flows under the high warehouse. They have been forced to "lighten their burdens". Through the downtime and production reduction, the callbacks have been quoted to promote the real single transaction, so as to achieve the goal of rapid inventory digestion. The yarn market is competing for a price adjustment, and the more it falls, the more people will not be interested. The more textile enterprises can only wait for the downstream inquiry and offer for the sake of losses, the embarrassing situation can be imagined.

Since the G20 summit, the US side has no longer imposed new tariffs on China, and the two sides have resumed economic and trade consultations on the basis of equality and mutual respect. There seems to be no real progress, but the easing of the bad situation has injected new opportunities to the market. From yarn raw materials, polyester staple fiber and cotton Market:

After mid June, the Sino US economic and trade release is expected to be better and the oil situation caused by the tension between the US and Iraq has increased. PTA futures have been rising sharply. The downstream market has no signs of further decline. Its enthusiasm for stock preparation has been significantly improved. The short term stock of polyester staple fiber has been rapidly digested. It can be said that "good wind is relying on borrowing power, sailing is at that time", and the market price has risen by 1100 yuan / ton.

Under the enormous pressure of supply, it is difficult for the cotton market to get rid of the weak impact of the fundamentals. Only in the early days of good news release, the spot and base resources increased by about 200 yuan / ton, and in the face of the positive rise of polyester and short, the operation intention of the downstream was somewhat promoted.

According to long Zhong data statistics, the price of yarn market has been rising since the end of June under the help of the double market price rising, but the lack of necessary demand support did not win the cost. The market price of blended yarn rose by 300-500 yuan / ton, the market price of pure polyester yarn increased by 600-900 yuan / ton, the market price of pure cotton yarn was limited, most of the enterprises only cancelled the rebate, and the individual capital and inventory benign operation increased 200-300 yuan / ton tentatively. After the quoted price rises, the downstream enquiries have improved significantly and the social inventory has been speeded up. Some enterprises said that during the 3 days of releasing the information, they had digested the stock for 15-20 days.

However, the good times didn't last long. With the positive effect of the early stage, PTA and Zheng cotton futures fell, and the initial growth rate was 300-400 yuan / ton, and cotton continued to shake up. In the yarn market, when the cost collapse and the demand are difficult to improve, the price trend is not ideal. Some enterprises have released the callback or increased the negotiation space. Yesterday PTA pulled up late, the night plate continued to show the rally. The rise of international crude oil has helped the polyester industry to present itself better, but there has been no improvement in terminal weakness. At present, the average price of T/C 65/35 32 branches is 16900 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.03%, down 7.91% from the same period last year.

In the short term, the textile industry is in the off-season, large scale and regional enterprises are holding orders, but the order is not big in the month. But with the deepening of the off-season, if the dual market and terminal demand weak pattern continues, and the market operation is difficult to increase, it is expected that the signs of the sharp decline in the yarn market price are not obvious under the locking costs and interest margins, but the weak trend is also worrying.