US Cotton End Stocks Hit A Ten Year High, And Domestic Prices Are Down Now (7.8-7.12).

According to the price monitoring of business, the average price of 3128B grade linen in the domestic spot market was 14205 yuan / ton as of July 12, 2019. Compared with Monday (7.8), the average price dropped by 135 yuan / ton, or 0.94%, up 1.17% from last month, down 12.21% from the same period last year.

In July 12th, the contract price of the 1909 contract of Zheng cotton was 13100 yuan / ton, 610 yuan / ton compared with July 8th price.

In July 12th, the ICE cotton contract for December was 62.68 cents a pound, down 2.96 cents from July 8th.

The US Department of agriculture report shows that in June 28, 2019 -7 4, the net contract volume of the US cotton exports in June 28, 2019 was 12 thousand and 100 tons, 62% less than the previous week, and the cancellation of the contract was mainly in China (2268 tons). Earlier, with the development of Sino US trade negotiations, China added 3379 tons of new contracts.

It is understood that as of June 27th, the United States still has 4 million bales of cotton not shipped, the market is expected to have a considerable number of contracts to be canceled or transferred to the next year. At the end of this year, the end of the US cotton inventory will reach 5 million packages, the highest level in the past ten years. Most of them are low grade, and traders have great pressure to shift to the next year. 1 million of them are facing the risk of cancellation because of the high contract price. At the same time, the US cotton is growing well and the supply exceeds demand. In the near future, cotton producers have cut down the quotations of the US cotton. Sino US trade tariffs led to the US cotton sales to China blocked, and US cotton export pressure unprecedented.

This week, domestic lint spot continued to decline. The average transaction price of cotton reserves was affected by Zheng cotton's down limit, which first fell sharply and then rebounded slightly. Cotton city is affected by Sino US trade, domestic textile orders are sluggish, cotton inventory is high, cotton price overall weak adjustment. This week cotton yarn in Shandong cotton fell sharply, and the average price of all 21S cotton knitted yarn was 21340 yuan / ton, which was 3.61% lower than that on Monday (7.8), and the average price of 32S high ring spinning knitted whole cotton yarn was 22500 yuan / ton, down 2.85%. Manufacturers responded that cotton yarn inventory pressure was high, cotton prices continued to decline, unable to support existing prices. The market believes that the recent orders are hard to recover, cotton prices or continue to explore, part of the cotton yarn prices plunged this week, low price promotion, ease inventory pressure.

Business analysts believe that the downstream orders are light and the profits are reduced. The market as a whole is more cautious, and the situation of oversupply of cotton will lead to negative investors' future market. Cotton prices will probably usher in a new downward trend in the near future.