GDP Growth In The Two Quarter Has Reached A Low Of Nearly 30 Years. Will The "Bitter Days" In The Textile Industry Continue?

Since the beginning of this year, we have been talking about this year's textile market, which is "buoyant season" and "off-season ahead". We always feel that we have gone through the "endless" peak season and received soft orders. But has it ever been thought that the textile market may be a peak now, and the situation behind it will only be worse.

In the process of visiting the market, many executives are unwilling to admit that their company's current operating conditions are not good, lack of orders, and profits fall. So there is a contradiction between high inventory and high load start up, but data will not lie. The data of capacity utilization rate of textile industry from the National Bureau of statistics were analyzed statistically. We can see clearly that In the second quarter of the year, the capacity utilization rate of the textile industry is the highest, and the third and fourth quarter are the lowest in a year. And in the first, second quarter of the past 19 years, the capacity utilization rate of textile industry has declined sharply compared with the previous two years, and the coming third and fourth seasons will have the lowest annual capacity utilization rate according to the law. That is to say, the capacity of the textile industry is not only bad in the past few years, but also in the poorer future.

Textile market lacks support from economic environment

The quality of any industry is inseparable from the trend of economic deterioration, and the textile industry is no exception. From the two quarter GDP growth rate just released by the state, it seems that the future is not so optimistic.

The GDP growth rate in the second quarter of this year has reached a record low. The quarterly growth rate of GDP has the same rule as that of our textile industry. The first, second quarter is the annual peak, while the third and fourth quarter are decreasing. In the next third and fourth quarters, the GDP growth rate of the whole country will probably further slow down, which will be worse than ever for the textile industry that is struggling to get help.

Weaving mills and dyeing mills are increasingly operating under pressure.

Whoever does the textile industry, as long as I hear who owns a factory, the first reaction is that the company is sure to "make money and get rich". As a matter of fact, the first two years were also true. The weaving machine of polyester taffe had a profit of 100 yuan, and there were countless people waiting for cash in line with cash. The profits of dyeing factories are even more substantial. In Shengze, a dyeing factory with 120 or so dye vats in the region has a profit of over 45 million in 17 years. The order is even more than 0.4 yuan per meter, and it will take more than a month to make it.

But now, different days ago, weaving factories and dyeing factories are producing tears every day. According to the monitoring of sample weaving enterprises, the inventory of grey cloth in Shengze has been up to 41-42 days. The lack of terminal trade orders has made weaving factories "miserable". Fortunately, the price of raw materials has been downwards, which has diluted some production costs and made it possible for weaving factories to sell prices. But the raw materials are not "Bodhisattva", nor can it always be "in the snow". In recent years, PTA ignored the downstream capital chain tension, and repeatedly saw between the rise and fall, trying to stimulate production, sales and harvesting profits. At present, the price of raw materials has been at a low level, and it is only a matter of time before we enter the upstream channel. At that time, shutting down might be the best choice for high inventory weaving factories.

As the "oligarch" of the textile industry, the dyeing factory is affected by environmental protection policies and so on. The number of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces will only decrease. In principle, it should be in an absolute "supply less than" position, firmly grasp the price of the right to speak, but this year's situation so that all dyeing factory owners are somewhat confused, dye is not dare to rise, even if the dye costs more than careful price. According to the person in charge of a dyeing factory, the factory has changed a lot of machines according to the environmental protection requirements, adding a lot of waste water and gas purification equipment, plus security inspection, danger and labor insurance, and so on. The cost is doubled. But now the situation is that more than 100 dyeing VATS a month ago, the dye tank operation rate is still 6-7, and these days have dropped to 5. As for whether the future situation will continue to deteriorate, I do not dare to think about it now.

The bitter days of traders are still behind.

In front of the off-season, any factory is a bit of a "cumbersome" feeling, and the vast majority of factories without traders can not consider all kinds of costs, now is a relaxed. Although the order is not large or small, it is still a bit. Tens of thousands, tens of thousands of meters of orders can not be seen, hundreds of thousands of meters order is still everywhere. More importantly, traders who have always been short of discourse power are now able to straighten their waist in weaving mills and dyeing factories.

The price of grey cloth is not as strong as before. It costs no more than three yuan to get a price of 0.1-0.2 yuan per meter of grey cloth. There is a lot of room to talk about the price of dyeing factory, and the production cycle is greatly shortened. Order volume is not as good as it used to be, but on the whole it is not sad. But future orders will continue to decrease. Although the direct traders' attack is limited, the reduction or stop production of the mills and dyeing factories will be more severe for traders.

The closure of the weaving mill will make the order lack of ready made grey cloth, and lengthen the production time or even lose the order. The production of dyed VATS in dyeing factories has made some colors wait in line. If the production is stopped, the impact will be even greater. After all, the number of dyeing factories is limited and there is not much room to choose.

Compared with the past few years, it is undoubtedly the weakest season. We can think about it rationally: the weakening of the economic environment, the decline of the factory operating rate, and the rising price of raw materials, etc., it seems that the future will be more brutal than it is now. But the peak season will not come again. The answer is yes, but the night before dawn is very hard. Many companies and factories do not necessarily insist on that day, while the remaining few continue to divide the original "cake".