Data: 2019 Textile Off-Season: Polyester Market Not To Force Grey Fabric Inventory Refresh 2 Years High

On the 23 day, the last solar term "big heat" officially appeared on the summer, which meant that the opening of the cooking mode was coming at the hottest time. In contrast to the hot weather, the polyester market is "fresh and thin".

PTA led the market for two consecutive days of decline, ethylene glycol continued weak finishing, and from the beginning of 10, polyester filament production and marketing has been maintained low, the average level is also 3-4, polyester stock has increased to 14-23 days.

Hot summer is in the off-season, upstream polyester also "not to force", then how about the textile market? Let's listen to what the textile people say.

Textile worker A: I am a turnover workshop. I have been doing the same class before. Last month, we started the class shift to 3 shifts. Last year, the workshop was busy. The director had been grasping the output. Obviously, there was no work in the factory this year. We had to leave a few days before asking for leave.

Trader B: this year's big market is not good. We only do domestic trade. In the first half of the year, the quantity of orders is 50% less than that of the whole year. There is not a single one, but it is scattered and small. 7, August did not mention it, the first half of the market is too bad, the surrounding areas have already stopped textile mills for a month! Next year, we will celebrate the Spring Festival in January, and the market will be better.

Weavers C: this year, the global economy is depressed. It can only be said that this is an economic cyclical, and consumer demand has also changed, so business is more difficult to do. Last year, the market suddenly broke out. I think there is a sign of false prosperity. Many manufacturers may be clearing up inventory last year. Our company's newly developed polyester yarn dyed shirt fabric has been sold for hundreds of thousands of meters last year, but this year it can only sell hundreds of thousands of meters. Last year, our company's order could be discharged until October, but this year it can only do this month. Our energy is focused on new product development, and we hope to make breakthroughs in the second half.

The same is the textile off-season, last year "off-season not light", but this year "off-season is more light", in fact, there are similarities and differences between them.

Same points

The future of Sino US trade is uncertain, which makes it difficult to make orders.

Since the beginning of last year, Sino US relations have been in a stage of fluctuation. The prospect is very complicated, affecting the share of textiles exported to the United States. Many of us have begun to take a wait-and-see attitude.

Difference

1.PTA affects the textile market to the left or right.

Whether this year or last year, the market of the weaving market has been affected by PTA, but the difference is that in April last year, PTA began to continue to rush upward, driving the weaving market began to improve. In July, PTA futures hit a new high in the year. The main contract closed at 5936 yuan / ton, while driving the price of PTA's internal market to 6600 yuan / ton. Polyester main PTA began to climb step by step, weaving manufacturers were "driven", began to produce continuously, the appearance of market outburst began to appear.

This year, PTA has skyrocketed and plummeted. The downstream weaving mills are more afraid to store up goods in the off-season, and lack of market confidence.

2. polyester filament prices affect buyers desire to buy!

Last year, with the strong driving force of PTA, the price of polyester filament began to soar. The price of the manufacturers increased by 50-400 yuan in one day, and the price of polyester FDY 75D/36F was as high as 10700 yuan / ton.

In July of this year, polyester filament rose a wave price following the PTA skyrocketing situation, but weaving manufacturers did not buy it. Polyester filament production and marketing continued to slump, and raw materials manufacturers had to cut prices again. At present, the price of polyester FDY 75D/36F is about 8550 yuan / ton, compared with last year, a sharp decrease of 2150 yuan / ton.

3. this year, grey fabric inventory has been refreshed for 2 years.

Last year, when environmental protection policies were tightened, production restriction, limit stop and power restriction were implemented, the average loom rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was around 80%. However, because of the good market situation, the inventory of grey fabrics was only about 25 days. Although the intensity of environmental protection is not as big as that of last year, the stock of grey fabric has risen to about 42 days, and has been refreshed for 2 years. Judging from the current market situation, the probability of grey fabric inventory will not rise or fall will be larger.

In fact, 7 and August are the traditional off-season itself, but because of the better market in the off-season last year, there is a sharp contrast. The main reason for this year's slack season is still too much excess capacity.

Last year, the policy of environmental protection began to tighten. Many textile enterprises began to transfer to northern Jiangsu and Anhui to buy land, build factories, arrange machines and expand their capacity. However, due to the beginning of production, production capacity was not released overnight. This year, the peripheral capacity will suddenly emerge and the capacity will explode. The water in the cup overflowed, and naturally it was too late to drink. The market can not keep pace with the outbreak of capacity, and is delayed by capacity.

At the same time, when the overcapacity is just showing up, the weaving factories are not aware of their vigilance. Instead, they are holding the "lucky luck" mentality to expect the coming of the peak season to eliminate their stocks. However, the reality is always skinny. In the global economic depression, the textile industry is encountering "Waterloo". In the off-season, the news of production reduction, stop production and holiday is constantly coming.

In fact, last year's market was mainly influenced by PTA's strong upward impact. Weaving factories ignored the market rules, blindly produced, and accumulated a large amount of grey cloth to the end of this year.

On the other hand, last year, the weaving factories increased their purchase of raw materials under the influence of good market and buying and selling. The stock of polyester filament reached a low level last year, with an average of only 4.5 days. The raw materials that the hoarding factories are hoarding are constantly being produced, but the sales speed of the grey cloth is not so fast. Over time, the stock of polyester filament has all been transferred to the inventory of weaving enterprises, causing the inventory of weaving enterprises to be overburdened.

Although the textile market is not satisfactory at present, the probability of "Jin nine silver ten" coming is not obvious, but the off-season is also the turning point of "survival of the fittest". As a textile man, did you say anything after last year's market situation this year?