PTA, Glycol "Seesaw" Market: PTA Continues To Oscillate, Glycol Upside Up

PTA and ethylene glycol, as the "homologous" brothers in the polyester industry chain, are involved in the sensitive nerves of the industry chain. Since ethylene glycol futures came into the market, the whole group is in a weak state of consolidation, but PTA is different. It has been in hot weather and has been "taking over" the industry status and "engulfing" the profits of the industry.

PTA and ethylene glycol seesaw phenomenon

Device maintenance difficult to mention PTA Market

But recently, the style of painting has changed. Last week, PTA fell for two consecutive days and continued to fall. 26, there is news: 1. Hengli Petrochemical intends to overhaul the 1 2 million 200 thousand tons PTA production line in August, the repair time is about 15 days. 2. a 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant in East China is planned to reduce production to 9 in operation. Its 700 thousand ton line plan will be maintained for about a week at the end of this month. 3. a 600 thousand ton PTA plant in Southern China is scheduled to be shut down in early August for 1 months. 4. a 1 million 400 thousand ton PTA plant in East China is scheduled to stop in early August and is expected to last for about 4-5 days.

Although the news of PTA device maintenance still stimulated PTA futures to go up slightly in early trading on the 26 day, the subsequent impact of the "Sino Tuo" incident is still fermented, and the market confidence is seriously insufficient. The futures market soon dropped, and the 1909 main contract of the 26 main PTA fell 0.15%, and there was no substantial improvement in the fundamentals.

The reason why PTA futures face has been "suppressed" is due to the decline in the operating rate of polyester manufacturers and weaving factories, and the weakening of demand, which has made PTA weaker and more stressed. On the other hand, although a number of device overhaul plans have been announced, at the end of the month, 4 million 500 thousand tons of PTA devices have been restarted, which basically can dilute the overhaul of PTA. At the moment, PTA supply is in a slightly loose state. Therefore, under the market confidence, the PTA rebound is limited.

Glycol to inventory is obvious, the upward trend.

Since the recent stage, polyester production and marketing has been maintained at around 3-4 per cent. Although 26 days have been boosted by the PTA maintenance information, PET production and sales are over 100, but on the two day of the weekend, polyester production and sales have dropped sharply, and the lowest production is only about 20%. At the same time, in order to better manage inventory, polyester enterprises began to drop operation. At present, the start-up rate of polyester plant is around 87.9%. Under the gloomy environment of polyester market, ethylene glycol had a slight rebound.

Overall, in the past half a month, the surface of glycol futures has maintained a steady trend, and the futures market has been improving to drive the steady development of spot prices. As can be seen from the graph, the price of ethylene glycol inside and outside the market has been rising since the beginning of 7. At present, the price of ethylene glycol is about 4455 yuan / ton, and the price of the outer disk is about 543 dollars / ton.

Support for ethylene glycol uptrend, that is, the effect of inventory is obvious. In recent years, domestic ethylene glycol started to maintain at around 65%, and domestic equipment overhaul is centralized, supply recovery is relatively slow, and low support is relatively strong. At the same time, the East China main port inventory has dropped to 943 thousand and 500 tons, compared with the highest 1 million 282 thousand tons in the year, a decrease of 338 thousand and 500 tons, a drop of 26.4%, and the effect of clearing the warehouse is still obvious. It is reported that the main port of ethylene glycol arrived this week is still relatively small, only around 13-14 tons, it is estimated that this week's port stocks will continue to maintain a downward trend.

From the basic point of view, glycol is much better than PTA at present, but in terms of profit, ethylene glycol is still "PTA" in a short time. Although PTA is not in good shape at the recent stage, the high processing fee still makes PTA's profit in the polyester industry chain at a high level of 650 yuan / ton.

For PTA and glycol, the most important factor is the demand side. Polyester manufacturers, although the start-up rate has declined, but the average stock of polyester manufacturers is still about 15 days. Weaving is now the textile off-season, and the textile market which is not ideal in the off-season is "worse than ever". There are a lot of news about holidays, production cuts, losses and shutdowns.

Weaving enterprises have not seen a single big list. Small bills are also 00 scattered. Stock has reached 42.5 days or so, and it has been refreshed for two years. High storage makes polyester manufacturers and weaving manufacturers demand for upstream raw materials is not urgent, demand side is weak, therefore, in the short term, PTA and ethylene glycol will be in shock finishing market.

At present, if there is no deliberate speculation, the terminal has not changed much. Even if PTA and ethylene glycol can walk together, perhaps the pace will not be great.