"High Temperature" Behind The Polyester And Textile Market Helpless Portrayal, August Is Hard To Say Optimistic.

Recently, a lot of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have seen the implementation of production reduction operations, and the looms and parking holidays have occurred in Haining, Wujiang, Xiaoshao, Changxin and other places. According to statistics, the looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have been decreasing since mid April, and along with the increase of temperature, "high temperature sham" has become an excuse for textile enterprises to start down and reduce orders. After mid July, the operation of large circular machines increased slightly, and the commencement of jet and loom looms continued to show a downward trend. At present, the integrated rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 57.7%, and the demand for terminals has failed.

The usual high temperature in summer has also led to the reduction of production and parking. On the other hand, this year's "high temperature holiday" is due to the sluggish demand for the industry and the backlog of inventory, while the industry profits are concentrated in the PTA field. Textile enterprises have little profit and low enthusiasm for production. Therefore, the demand for polyester has shrunk, and in the off-season of traditional demand, the market price of polyester has dropped.

　　 Fig. 1 Comparison of price trends of Main polyester filament varieties

According to the above picture, polyester filament in September 2018 trend to follow the trend of raw material PTA, and gradually enter the downstream channel. The price of polyester in the first quarter is running smoothly, and the market is relatively stable. Since the two quarter, the inventory pressure has increased, and the sales pressure has increased. The price of polyester has been lowered down, and the effect has been cancelled by the beginning of June. The pressure of enterprise inventory has been relieved, and the pressure of enterprise inventory has been relieved. With the support of cost end, polyester has opened up the upward path, but the upstream has been rising, the downstream transmission has been sluggish, the profit has been shrinking to some models, the production enthusiasm is not high, the demand for the polyester filament has been greatly reduced, the consumption consciousness of the downstream weaving enterprises has been reduced, and the purchasing demand has been reduced. Since July, the stock of polyester has entered a cumulative stage. The lack of confidence in the market and preferential sales have been the focus of the market. The FDY has fallen heavily. Taking 150D/96F as an example, the focus of the market is 7750-7850 yuan / ton, which is 14.6% lower than the beginning of the month.

　　 Fig. 2 Comparison of profit trend of Main polyester filament varieties

The price of polyester filament is constantly exploring. For the production enterprises, the most direct embodiment is profit reduction. As shown in Figure 2, the POY price downward rate is relatively slow, because the profit level is acceptable, and along with the late PTA price reduction, the POY profit margin has increased. However, the profit level of FDY and DTY varieties is far less than that of POY, where DTY is near the breakeven point, FDY descends faster, profits continue to shrink, and losses are serious. This is also the most important support point for the recent FDY local price increase.

　　 Fig. 3 trend of production and sale rate of mainstream polyester filament Enterprises

In the first half of the year, the average production and sales of polyester products were 7-8. Since July, the production and marketing of polyester products have been very mild. The signs of a slight rebound in the production and sales of No. 1 in the beginning of the month, but lack of support from the demand side, and the market soon plunged into a downturn. In July, the main raw material PTA continued to explore the bottom. Downstream weaving enterprises had a strong upsurge in sentiment, and the resistance of polyester delivery was relatively large. At the end of the month, it rebounded slightly with raw materials, and the downstream was in the purchasing cycle. However, the high temperature in summer is still continuing, and the polyester market is hard to dissipate. In August, the market is hard to say.