The Supply And Demand Situation Is Improving, And Ethylene Glycol Will Usher In A Good Opportunity?

Recently, the polyester industry chain is not calm, the same brother PTA has callback sharply, but glycol is comfortable and comfortable in between 4200-4600 yuan / ton. Up to now, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has maintained a tight pattern. In addition, under the expectation of "golden nine silver ten", the start-up load of polyester increased slightly, and the supply and demand pattern improved to boost market sentiment. The short-term ethylene glycol market will continue to rebound.

The cost side is beset with macro emotions.

Last week, crude oil prices continued to decline, mainly due to the Sino US trade dispute escalation may bring global economic slowdown concerns, thereby reducing demand for crude oil, but the Saudi Arabia led oil producers began to pay attention to crude oil continued to fall may trigger panic selling behavior, international oil prices stabilized.

In terms of PX, prices fell somewhat under the pressure of falling crude oil, and its price was closed at 790 US dollars / ton, and PX- naphtha oil price dropped to near us $340 / ton.

Supply side data brings a small margin

Up to the end of last week, the operation rate of glycol plant was rising, and port inventory rose slightly. (East China port is expected to reach 114 thousand and 700 tons this week). The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is about 972 thousand tons, the ring ratio continues to rise, the domestic ethylene glycol glycol plant operation rate is about 73.63%, the chain ratio has risen, the coal glycol glycol utilization rate is about 51.97%, and the annulus ratio has risen slightly. The start-up load of polyester plant is around 85.44%, and the ring ratio is rising slightly.

Polyester end demand tends to improve.

This week, some factories have device load upgrading plans: Tiansheng, Huahong, Hengyi, etc., but there are also Pan Asian maintenance expectations. Next week, there are also 300 thousand tonnes of Tong Kun Hang's production plans for production. Next week, polyester production is expected to increase slightly, but it is not excluded that other factories will join in maintenance and production reduction. It is estimated that the average starting point of polyester will be around 85.62% next week, up 0.92% over the previous week's ring ratio. Polyester production and sales increased by about 100%, and from the inventory point of view, polyester polyester fiber stocks generally declined as a result of polyester production and marketing.

To sum up: the main port of ethylene glycol is less than 120 thousand tons this week, and the port will be reduced or affected by strong typhoon. At the same time, the market mentality has been boosted in the process of tightening the cash flow in the field. In addition, polyester load continued to rise, the first Friday to restore to 87.7%, production and marketing moderately improved, demand side support strong. The price of short-term ethylene glycol is expected to be strong and upward, but the overall growth is expected to be limited by the expected suppression of the production of the medium and long term lines. (source: Baocheng futures, Huaxi Village commodity contract trading center)