Net Capital Inflow Nearly 300 Million PTA Market Is Brewing A New Round Of "Big Move"?

On Monday, PTA increased 178 thousand positions, and there was no increase in its increments. Does this mean that PTA is brewing a new round of big moves?

In the early August, the PTA price continued to decline after a short period of consolidation, with the easing of the trade war, the price rebounded sharply. At present, the PTA processing fee has dropped sharply, and the profit of the industry chain has shifted to the downstream. With the rising of polyester operation rate, PTA has no downlink foundation in the near future.

PTA processing fee falls below 1000 yuan.

At the beginning of July, the spot processing fee of PTA plant reached a high level of 2453 yuan. However, the downstream polyester industry complained incessantly, the polyester factory overhaul increased, and the market purchase intention declined sharply, and the PTA price of the momentum was booming. PTA processing fee is rapidly compressed. After the beginning of August, PTA spot processing fee dropped to less than 1000 yuan.

In addition to the lack of follow-up demand for downstream polyester, the PTA industry's future capacity increase has also raised concerns for the market. In September, 2 million 200 thousand tons of new Feng Ming plant will be launched, and Hengli new capacity will also be put into the market in October. PTA, which has been silent for many years, has added new members to the market, which is a major challenge for the future market, resulting in obvious pressure on the PTA forward market.

Since August, Jialong Petrochemical has been Overhauling for a month, Yangzi Petrochemical started to repair 12 days. The overall operating rate of PTA is near 91%. In addition, it is reported that there are maintenance plans for the 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hengli Petrochemical Company in August, and the load will further decline.

From the upstream PX market, in the past two months, PX production and processing fees have been maintained at between us $320-350, and the current PTA spot production profit is quite close to that of PX, about 5%. Before the new capacity is put in, PTA is still in a tight balance.

Downstream demand has improved

PTA prices fall, so that industrial chain profits begin to shift downstream. Since mid August, weaving enterprises have started to increase by nearly 10 percentage points, and the loom loom operation rate in Shengze has increased to 75%. The price of polyester manufacturers is limited by PTA, and the cost of slipped and thickened polyester filament links profit. Downstream polyester together with tung Kun hang Bang phase four, Heng and other devices put into operation demand side started to upgrade.

Looking at the production and sales data in July and August, we can find that the average production and sales of polyester and silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces in August were warmer than those in July. Production and marketing continues to be warm, but it is indeed driven by many positive factors. However, behind this is the fact that the weaving factories are actively stocking. Now, the price of polyester is indeed at the absolute low level in the year. Two, next is the traditional textile peak season gold, nine silver ten. According to the seasonal rule, the next season is the autumn winter suit. Next, the foreign trade Christmas season will also begin. Although most textile bosses hold a pessimistic attitude towards this year's gold and silver ten, most people believe that gold and nine silver ten will be much better than the July and August off-season market. So, with the approaching of September, the confidence and enthusiasm of the textile boss is gradually increasing.

From the inventory perspective, the stock of polyester products has declined since the end of July. With the recent increase in the price of PTA, it is expected that polyester stocks will continue to decline in the lower reaches of the winter fabrics expected to buy up or down. At least in the late stage, the downstream polyester stocks will not continue to drag on the market price. This week, the PTA factory inventory is in the vicinity of 2-3 days low, and the latter is expected to go to the warehouse slightly.

In August 14th, the 300 billion dollar tax list was adjusted again, although most of the textile, clothing accessories and other tariffs were added in September 1st. However, the rise in US oil prices still brought good news to PTA long. Although the overall order of terminal weaving has not yet improved significantly, the downstream enquiry behavior has increased somewhat. The recent printing and dyeing Market, which represents the trend of market trade, has also broken out, indicating that the market is booming in the off-season and is improving.

To sum up, the current supply and demand of PTA is good, and polyester needs to be purchased or increased during peak season. Since the profits of industrial chain are transferred from PX-PTA- polyester in turn, the abundant cash flow from downstream will feed upstream market. Although there are unfavorable factors in the forward market of PTA, the market is expected to increase slightly in the short term. (source: Hongye futures, gauze screen)