Forecast: Historical Data Deducting Seed Cotton Purchase Price In 2019

Recently, the author collated the purchase price of seed cotton from the whole country, the mainland and Xinjiang in 2015, and the purchase price of seed cotton and cotton lint.

1. In recent years, the purchase price of seed cotton has been higher and lower, and the acquisition period has been gradually lengthened.

As can be seen from the above chart, in recent years, whether the purchase price of cotton seed or the purchase price of seed cotton in the mainland or Xinjiang is high in recent years, the trend is higher and lower. It is characterized by the gradual extension of the acquisition period. The 2018 seed cotton purchase period lasted until July, which was mainly influenced by the mainland purchase period, while the seed cotton purchase period in Xinjiang was relatively concentrated, usually in the 9-12 month of each year. Considering this year's sluggish market Sentiment, in the absence of a sudden good policy, the author expects the new year's seed cotton purchase period will not be shorter than the previous year.

Two, according to the purchase price difference between spot and seed cotton, the price of seed cotton should be pushed back to seed cotton purchase price.

Through figure 4 and table 4, the author finds that the difference between spot and purchase price in September is 1063 yuan / ton, and the average value in the near year is 10007 yuan / ton. In order to better show the impact of spot price on purchasing price, the author calculates the difference between the price of spot and seed cotton and cotton lint purchased in August and September of next year, and pushes down the purchase price of seed cotton according to the difference of past years. It should be noted that the calculation is based on loss 1% and no processing fee.

Through calculation, we found that if the average price of cottonseed is 2.38 yuan / kg (Wind data), the average lint percentage is 38.59% (the national cotton market monitoring system data), and the average value of 13666 yuan / ton in August of Cncotton B in August 23rd, the price of seed cotton in the whole country, the mainland and Xinjiang is 6.25 yuan / kg, 6.16 yuan / kg, 6.40 yuan / kg (see Table 6). (cotton seed and lint do not distinguish between Xinjiang and the mainland) In accordance with the same method, the author has verified the accuracy of the above calculation methods. Using the cotton seed price and linen data of the national cotton market monitoring system in 2016 and 2017, we calculated the seed cotton prices in 2017 and 2018, respectively. See Table 7. (cottonseed and lint distinguish Xinjiang from the mainland)

As can be seen from table 7, this method is relatively practical. In addition, the author used the same method to push down the price of seed cotton by using the difference between the settlement price and spot price of zhengmian main contract, but the difference between the calculated price and the historical real price is larger.

The projection of data is only a prediction. There are many prerequisites. For example, spot prices will only take the price up to August 23rd. The changes in the price will affect the mean and the final results. Moreover, the price of cotton seed and clothing in the mainland and Xinjiang will not be divided into 2019 years when the purchase price is calculated, which will affect the projected price. Although the new year is coming, it has entered the countdown stage. However, the policy level, investment funds, market expectations, cotton quotas and so on will all cause changes in the market price. The calculated seed cotton price is only the result of a calculation method, and how much the final purchase price will be, and the price trend will still be determined by the market supply and demand sides.