Textile Industry Downturn? This Set Of Data Is Explored.

In July 2019, China's cotton textile prosperity index was 46.25, down 0.18 compared with June. In July, the boom of cotton textile industry was still not high. At the beginning of the month, the trade friction situation was briefly eased after the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States, and the market began to pick up. The price of raw materials stopped falling, and orders for the autumn and winter started one after another, and downstream enquiries increased. However, because the amount of new orders is small and the quantity is small, the price of gauze is still short of rising support. The uncertainty of Sino US trade negotiations has made the market warmer for a week and then turned to a wait-and-see state. At the beginning of August, President Trump claimed that China would levy a 10% tariff on China's $300 billion export to the US, and it would be implemented in September 1, 2019. Although Trump said that some of the products that were originally set for increasing tariffs in September 1st were postponed to December 15th, their repeated attitude has failed to fully trust the enterprises. August is the transition period from the off-season to the peak season for the textile industry, but the market is still as calm as the lake. Therefore, it is estimated that the probability of China's cotton textile prosperity index will increase in August.

Raw material purchase price index

In July, the purchasing price index of raw materials was 47.31, an increase of 1.04 compared with June. In July, cotton prices at home and abroad were basically the same, showing a trend of first rise and then decrease. At the beginning of the month, influenced by the macro good news, domestic and foreign cotton prices rose slightly. After that, Trump's position on the Sino US trade negotiations softened again, the market wait-and-see sentiment reappeared, the purchasing intention of textile enterprises was not high, and the global and domestic cotton supply exceeded demand, the price was down and falling continuously, and the international cotton price fell by more than the domestic cotton price. In terms of data, the average CotlookA index is 75.54 cents / pound, a decrease of 2.11 cents / pound, and the average spot price of domestic 3128B grade cotton is 13931 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20 yuan / ton. The average price of chemical fiber staple is higher than that of June. In early July, Sino US trade relations eased, market confidence was boosted, and viscose factory quotations were raised. Polyester staple fiber prices rose sharply with polyester raw materials. Although the rise time is relatively short, the increase is enough to raise the average value of the whole month. In July, the average price of mainstream viscose fiber was 11853 yuan / ton, an increase of 553 yuan / ton, 1.4D straight spinning polyester short average price was 8112 yuan / ton, the ring ratio increased 562 yuan / ton. In August, the trade situation between China and the United States was again tense, and the price of raw materials remained low in late July.

Raw material inventory index

In July, the stock index of raw materials was 46.11, down 0.29 compared with June. Tracking enterprise data shows that in July, raw material inventories fell by 2.56%. Among them, the raw cotton inventory decreased by 4.13%, the import cotton inventory increased by 0.38%, and the non cotton fiber inventory increased by 2.50%. Main cause:

First, the macroeconomic environment uncertainty factors are bigger, the textile industry chain wait-and-see sentiment is strong, do not dare to order, spinning enterprise inventory is higher, raw material procurement lacks enthusiasm;

Two, the United States Department of Agriculture reports that global cotton supply exceeds demand, and so does the domestic market.

Three, after mid July, foreign cotton prices fell sharply, which was higher than domestic cotton prices. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was larger than that in June, and domestic cotton imports increased. Four, in July, the prices of chemical fiber staple increased rapidly. In August, the market and raw material prices were in a doldrums. Textile enterprises still lacked enthusiasm, and the raw material inventory index did not change much in August.

Production index

In July, the production index was 45.16, down 0.66 compared with June. In July, the China Cotton Association went to the major textile provinces of the country to investigate and understand that the production start up situation of the enterprises was slightly improved compared with that in 5 and June, but the signs of improvement were not obvious. In some areas, the average operating rate of the textile enterprises was above 80%, and some enterprises were upgrading or upgrading due to the change of their product varieties, or because of the mobility of their employees, the opening of the platform was slightly inadequate. According to the varieties, the opening rate of producing high count yarn spinning enterprises is still slightly inferior to that of conventional production enterprises, and the production rate of pure cotton yarn spinning enterprises is slightly better than that of spinning enterprises producing chemical fiber yarns. Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn production decreased by 5.76% in July, and cloth production decreased by 3.35%. Among them, the output of cotton blended yarn and cotton blended fabric decreased more obviously, with a decrease of 8.65% and 1.58% respectively. In August, the production of textile enterprises continued in July, and the production and production in some areas continued.

Product sales index

In July, the product sales index was 44.99, down 0.05 compared with June. Nakagami Shun, textile enterprises are better off than before, but they are mostly stockpiling for traders, and factory orders are just needed. In late June, the shipping rate slowed down, and orders were mostly small and small. The quotation of textile enterprises was steady and slightly lower, and downstream demand power was still insufficient. The order situation of textile mill has rebounded slightly, mainly in many varieties and small batches, and the price competition is fierce. In terms of price, the average price of 32 pure cotton combed yarns is 20993 yuan / ton, a decrease of 192 yuan / ton, and the average price of pure cotton grey fabric (32*32 130*70 2/1 47 "twill") is 5.21 yuan / meter, and the ring ratio is 0.08 yuan / meter. Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn sales decreased by 4.82% in July, and sales increased by 0.18%. In August, affected by the depreciation of the RMB and the continuous decline of cotton futures, most of the outside single customers waited alone, the market was still in a weak position, the downstream orders were weak, the price pressure of conventional varieties was bigger, and the probability of a big decline in product sales index was expected in August.

Product inventory index

In July, the product inventory index was 45.51, an increase of 0.51 compared with June. At present, the downstream orders are mostly just needed replenishment, and the cotton mill is actively shipping the goods. The company is still making profits, and spinning enterprises are trying to maintain production and marketing and reasonably control their inventory. In the latter half of the year, orders for textile factories in some areas were slightly warmer than before, and the quotations increased. Although orders were mostly small, it was enough to let the mills with a serious backlog of inventory get a breathing space. Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn inventory increased by 1% in July, and cloth inventory decreased by 1.52%. Among them, pure cotton yarn inventory increased by 3.80%, and the inventory of pure cotton cloth decreased by 0.46%. In August, under the threat of tariffs imposed by the United States, the market which had slightly improved was plunged into depression again, and the uncertain raw material market made it impossible for the textile enterprises with poor profits to do enough, and the market wait-and-see sentiment was still strong.

Business index

In July, the business index was 46.02, down 0.43 compared with June. At present, the pressure of cotton textile enterprises is much larger than before. The raw material market is constantly changing under the influence of Sino US trade friction. The downstream market continues to slump, the liquidity of enterprises is decreasing, and the pressure of textile enterprises with more loans is self-evident. Some enterprises' losses are normal. Cotton textile industry is different from other industries. Once the production is stopped, it will be very difficult to recruit workers in the future. Enterprises said that under the current situation, the reduction of electricity prices is one of the effective measures to lighten the burden of textile enterprises and boost confidence in development. Recently, the office of the United States trade representative announced that the Trump administration would postpone 10% of its tariffs on certain Chinese products, including laptops and mobile phones, to December 15th. In September, textile and clothing categories had been delayed by 10% tariffs. Most of them were still taxed from September 1st. Therefore, the export market of textile and clothing in China is still more severe.